Tom Brady Odds: Assessing Brady’s Player Props For 2022 NFL Season

Tom Brady continues to be a magnet for betting handle as he approaches his age-45 season in the NFL. It’s no secret the public loves betting on or against Brady and no quarterback has been more polarizing inside Las Vegas sportsbooks through the years.

“We cursed Tom Brady’s name more than any other quarterback over the last two decades,” Westgate SuperBook executive vice president Jay Kornegay told NESN after Brady retired.

As the calendar reads July, one American sportsbook executive said his shop has already written more bets on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signal-caller than the next three combined. So bookmakers know exactly what they’re doing when they offer up handfuls of Brady-related bets at the window.

Here’s a look at some of Brady’s top player props at DraftKings Sportsbook:

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35.5 passing touchdowns o-110 / u-110
Brady eclipsed this number in both seasons with the Buccaneers (43, 40), but fell short in his last four with New England (24, 29, 32, 28). Obviously, Brady is the de facto offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay despite what the organizational chart says and he mostly has the ability to do whatever he wants inside the red zone. As long as he stays healthy, he’ll have every opportunity to go “Over” 35.5 scoring strikes.

4,650 passing yards o+100 / u-120
Brady soared “Over” this number by almost 700 yards last year. It’s worth mentioning that he threw a career-high 719 passes, which is the second-most in NFL history behind Matthew Stafford’s 727 attempts with Detroit back in 2012. It’s easy to think that Brady has his sights set on Peyton Manning’s single-season record (5,477), but I’m staying far away from this bet.

12.5 interceptions o-110 / u-110
This is my favorite prop of the litter and I’m going “Under” for a few reasons. First, Brady hasn’t fired 13 interceptions since 2009 and he’s averaging nine picks a year over his career. Second, even with mounting attempts, he was picked off 12 times in each of the last two seasons. Third, if he misses any time at all, staying “Under” this number is almost a sure thing.

+650 most passing yards
Only Justin Herbert (+550) has shorter odds in this category, but I would much rather bet someone at higher odds. Joe Burrow (+1200) and Kirk Cousins (+1800) are way more enticing and given the offensive schematics in Cincinnati and Minnesota plus the weapons at wide receiver, those bets are very realistic.

+800 to win Most Valuable Player
Again, Brady is near the front of the class for MVP and he only trails Allen (+700) on the sheet. He’s won this award three times (2007, 2010, 2017) and the narrative almost writes itself if he dominates the league at age 45. It should also help that voters likely have Aaron Rodgers fatigue in more ways than one.

Sam’s Pick:
Tom Brady “Under” 12.5 INTs (-110)

RECORD: (118-121, +24.7)