MLB DFS: Giants, Cardinals Top Optimal Stacks for Friday

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STACK IT UP

Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.

TEAM STACK WITH THE HIGHEST OPTIMAL PROBABILITY: GIANTS

The San Francisco Giants team stack is at the top of the optimal board by a decent margin as they will be in Coors Field facing Jose Urena and the Colorado Rockies tonight. Urena has been absolutely dreadful lately, which proves our fluke theory from about a month ago. He has allowed 21 earned runs in his last 24.1 innings, his expected ERA and FIP are in the mid-5.00 range, while his strikeout rate is only 11.9%. Urena walks nearly the same amount of batters that he strikes out, given his walk rate of 11.5%, which is absurd to see. 

The Giants’ stack will influence the entire slate because not only are they in Coors, but they are one of the cheapest stacks with an average price of their top six hitters only at about $3,000. Offensively, the Giants have been respectable lately. Over the past two weeks, they have been outside the top ten in wOBA and wRC+ while having the fifth-best ISO. They also have struck out at a near 26% rate over the past two weeks, but we shouldn’t be too concerned given Urena’s pathetic strikeout production. The key here is that fifth-best ISO ranking over the past two weeks, precisely what we want to see from a team heading into Coors Field. Despite the high ownership on this stack, you will be saving a ton of salary to be used elsewhere, and Urena is simply horrific.

RED HOT CARDINALS’ OFFENSE

The St. Louis Cardinals’ team stack finds itself near the top of the optimal board as they’ll go up against Tommy Henry and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Tonight will only be Henry’s fourth career start, and he has been OK over his first three appearances. He’s collected a 4.15 ERA with only a slight increase to his xERA, but his strikeout rate has only been 12.3%. Through 20 starts in AAA, Henry’s K% was only about 22%, so we shouldn’t expect Henry to see some meteoric increase in strikeouts anytime soon. What we would like for Henry to build off going forward are substantial numbers in his allowed HardHit% and Barrel%.

Offensively, the Cardinals have been incredible lately as they rank first in wOBA and wRC+ while being second in ISO over the past two weeks. He has also been striking out at a sub-19% clip over the past two weeks with strong HardHit% and Barrel% metrics during the same stretch. This stack is reasonably priced and isn’t expected to be overly owned, given the high ownership we anticipate the Giants to see in Coors Field. Taking a red-hot offense against an inexperienced pitcher is precisely what we look for in a potentially high upside play. Since we do not expect this stack to eclipse 10% ownership, this is a great pivot to make if you don’t want anything to do with the Giants in Coors Field.