AL Division Series Game 3: Yankees vs. Guardians Best Bets


Oct 15, 2022

The number two seed New York Yankees are set to visit the third seed Cleveland Guardians tonight for Game 3 of the ALDS from Progressive Field.

All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

New York Yankees (-120) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+102) Total: 6.5 (O-108, U-112)

If you’re a fan of the Cleveland Guardians, you’re likely feeling pretty strongly about your chances in the ALDS against the New York Yankees after manufacturing a split on the road. The Guardians now have home-field advantage in this series, and it’s difficult to argue that they also don’t boast an edge on the mound. Neither side has really been able to accumulate much of any offense in this series, but the pitching has been a strength of both squads, which should continue in this matchup tonight. 

The visiting Yankees are set to send right-hander Luis Severino to the bump, while the Guardians will be countering with righty Triston McKenzie. Both of these respective arms had quality regular seasons, with Severino owning a 7-3 record, 3.18 ERA, and 112 strikeouts, while McKenzie was 11-11, paired with a 2.96 ERA and 190 strikeouts. 

Severino has made nine postseason appearances and hasn’t exactly risen to the occasion, owning a 5.23 ERA in those games. McKenzie made his second playoff appearance against the Tampa Bay Rays in the wild-card round, pitching six shutout innings and allowing just two hits. 

The Yankees right-hander certainly has more experience in these big games, but in saying that, it’s hard to trust what he’s done in them. On the other hand, McKenzie is one of the brightest young arms in MLB, which should give the Guardians an advantage in this matchup tonight. 

With the Guardians offering plus-money value as a home underdog, it’s hard to avoid that price on today’s four-game MLB playoff slate. 

Best Bet: Guardians moneyline (+102)

The Guardians’ offense came alive late in Game 2, but they’ve still relatively struggled in the postseason. The four runs they scored on Friday is their highest total through their past four games. The Yankees offense certainly has more to give here, but with the Guardians lights out pitching, it’s hard to side with New York hitters to get going in Game 3. 

Severino has a postseason history of struggling, but we have to ask whether or not a less-than-stellar Guardians team will be able to take advantage of that. Jose Ramirez has mashed three home runs off the right-hander in 13 at-bats and could be a player to target for his home run prop, but the rest of the projected Cleveland lineup doesn’t have much experience against him. 

Both starters have excellent stuff, which should be on display tonight, even with Severino having a rocky track record in the playoffs. As a result, looking towards the under 6.5 has some value at -112. 

Best Bet: Under 6.5 (-112) 

McKenzie struck out eight batters against the Rays in the wild-card round and was just shy of averaging one strikeout per inning during the regular season. The Yankees are certainly a much different offensive beast than the Rays, but the Guardians have relatively kept them in check so far in the ALDS. During the regular season, McKenzie averaged more strikeouts per outing when pitching at home while also having a better ERA of 2.77. The big right-hander undoubtedly has swing-and-miss stuff, which should benefit him against this Yankees lineup, leading us to target his alternate strikeout prop of six or more tonight at -132. 

Best Prop: Triston McKenzie to Record 6+ Strikeouts (-132)

Thumbnail photo via Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

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