NFL Week 6 Picks: Best-Bet Parlay Banks On Bucs Beatdown In Pittsburgh
We're getting back on track this week
OK, so this is getting a bit frustrating.
For the third straight week, the NESNBets NFL best-bet parlay came up one leg short of cashing. This time, at least, we've got no one but ourselves to blame. As such, we're essentially back to even on the season.
Trying to squeeze the Jacksonville Jaguars moneyline into last week's parlay was a bad idea. It was greedy. Putting faith in Jacksonville to win a football game only to juice the final payout was a bad call, and we deserved to lose. It doesn't make it any less frustrating, though.
We are onto Week 6 with our picks, and we're gonna continue to trust the process.
(+7.5) New York Jets at Green Bay Packers (-110)
I've had this game in every piece of content or contest I'm in this week, which probably means the Packers run wild on the Jets. But it feels unlikely. The Packers don't seem capable of blowing out anyone right now, and this is a potentially bad matchup for Green Bay. Not only is Aaron Rodgers dinged up with a thumb injury, but the Jets' secondary could be a problem for a Packers receiving corps that still isn't totally clicking. The New York offense, led by Matt LaFleur's brother, Mike, has plenty of talent and should know exactly how to attack Joe Barry's uninspired defensive scheme and playcalling. The Jets might even be live to win this thing.
(-9) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-110)
This isn't the best of the number, as the game opened Bucs -7.5. But it also feels like this could be 10 by kickoff, and Tampa Bay is attractive in this spot while still at single digits. The Bucs haven't been perfect this season -- far from it. But while Kenny Pickett one day could be a great NFL quarterback, there might not be a greater discrepancy between QBs this week than him trying to keep pace with Tom freakin' Brady. The switch to Pickett got off to a rough start; Pittsburgh scored just three points last week in Buffalo. Sure, life should be a little easier this week at home against technically a worse defense, but Tampa Bay is still stout. Tampa Bay is a top-10 defense by just about every metric and is especially good against the pass (Pittsburgh's run game has been nonexistent this season anyway). Pittsburgh's ceiling feels like 13 to 17 points this week, and the Bucs should be able to get to 27. Should.
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams UNDER 41.5 (-110)
What exactly is the path to 41 or 42 points here? The Panthers have the NFL's second-worst offense by DVOA through five weeks, and the Rams aren't much better at No. 26. Between the two teams' combined 10 games this season, 42 points have been surpassed just three times. LA does have a top-10 defense, and the Panthers rank in the top 20. The Rams should look especially dominant against backup quarterback PJ Walker who has a career passer rating below 55. There's also the possibility LA is without Cooper Kupp, which feels like a pretty big deal given the way Matthew Stafford -- who is banged up himself -- has played this season.
Payout: 1 unit to win 5.96
To-date: UP 0.23 units
