NFL Week 7 Picks: Best-Bet Parlay Could Come Down To Steelers In Miami
We're also circling a couple totals in Denver and Dallas
And just like that, the NESNBets weekly NFL best-bet parlay is down for the season.
We've been resting our laurels on a Week 1 win for far too long. Have there been a few close calls along the way? Of course. But that's the parlay life. Week 7 in the NFL is upon us, and it's time to get back on the winning track.
Here's the Week 7 best-bet parlay based on consensus betting lines from the NESNBets live odds page.
New York Jets at Denver Broncos UNDER 38 (-110)
It opened 42.5 and is down to 38, so we're not getting the best of the number, but it still feels like the play. Both teams have pretty good defenses, especially the Broncos, who rank second in defensive DVOA and second in EPA allowed per play. The Jets rank 12th and 11th in those categories, respectively. The bigger issue, obviously, is offense. Denver's offense, loaded with talent and led by Russell Wilson, ranks 27th in DVOA. The Broncos either can't run the ball or just refuse to do it, which means Wilson (dealing with hamstring and shoulder issues) will be throwing a lot.
The Jets seem built to play against that with a solid pass rush (ask Aaron Rodgers), and a very good secondary led by Defensive Rookie of the Year front-runner Sauce Gardner. The Jets' offense, meanwhile, shows signs of explosiveness and is averaging 30 points per game the last three weeks. But some of that production was a result of defense or special teams, and they haven't really faced a defense like Denver's yet.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys OVER 49 (-110)
There technically could be some rust with Dak Prescott getting back in the saddle for the first time since Week 1. But the Lions defense, even coming off a bye, is just so bad that the Cowboys could get there all by themselves. In Detroit's six games, the average total points scored between the Lions and their opponents is 62, and that's weighed down by a 29-0 loss to the Patriots. And the Lions still worked the ball into New England territory all day but came up empty, going 0-for-3 in the red zone, while going 0-for-6 on fourth down and turning it over twice in the process.
These teams both like to get it and go, too, with the Lions ranked second in pace, and the Cowboys coming in at No. 9. All but one of Detroit's games (the New England one) were played indoors, as will be this one, too.
(+7) Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins
At the risk of putting too much weight on narratives, there is plenty of motivation for the Steelers this week. They just beat the Bucs as sizable underdogs last week (as whiffed on in this very space), and now they go to Miami to take on a reeling Dolphins team and still are catching a full touchdown and extra point. Mike Tomlin has covered 63% of the time as an underdog since being hired, which is the highest rate for any team over that stretch of time.
The big narrative -- which might not actually mean anything, but we're going to make it mean something -- is Steelers assistant Brian Flores returning to Miami. It's the first time he'll face his former team since being unceremoniously dismissed as head coach, a decision that was followed by a whole lot of controversy, as you might have heard. Tomlin will have his team ready to go for a bit of revenge on Flores' part. You also have to think Minkah Fitzpatrick will be motivated to take on his old team, too.
As for the actual football, we've got questions about just how sharp Tua Tagovailoa will be in his return from a concussion, and his general health is a question mark given all he has been through this season. Over the last four weeks, these teams have been pretty similar, too: Both defenses and offenses rank in the bottom 10 of the league in EPA since Week 3. It just feels like a far more evenly matched game than the spread suggests.
Payout: 1 unit to win 5.96 units
To-date: Down 0.77 units
