NHL Best Bets: Maple Leafs vs. Penguins Game Picks

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November 15

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Pittsburgh Penguins are set to collide for the second time over the last five days tonight from PPG Paints Arena.

All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Toronto Maple Leafs (-110) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-110) Total: 6.5 (O-130, U+106)

On Friday night, when these two clubs last met in Toronto, the Penguins doubled up the Maple Leafs by a score of 4-2. Despite that, the Leafs are playing better hockey and have posted a 4-3-3 record over their last ten games, while the Pens are struggling and sit at 2-6-2 over that same sample size. It ultimately hasn’t been a banner start to the regular season for either of these clubs, and there’s definite room for improvement moving forward in the second half of November. 

With what we’ve seen from both parties early this season, it’s not exactly a surprise that this game is currently viewed as a moneyline pick ’em, with both sides priced at -110. The Penguins haven’t played a ton at home yet, but they boast a 3-1-1 record in those matchups. On the other hand, the Leafs have struggled as the visitors and posted a 2-3-2 record. 

There’s more to like about both of these rosters than they’ve shown us so far, but there are questions about whether or not this Pens team has finally hit a wall with their aging core. Entering the year, you’d have expected more from the Maple Leafs, and that should still be how you view this team, knowing that the real demons they have to conquer reside in the postseason, and they’re still on track to get there as they sit second in the Atlantic division. 

Considering tonight’s goalie matchup, Matt Murray will return to the lineup and his old stomping grounds in Pittsburgh and get the start for Toronto, while the Pens should counter with Tristan Jarry. Murray started the opener for the Maple Leafs in Montreal but has since been sidelined with an injury, while Jarry hasn’t performed up to expectations in the Penguins crease and owns a 4-3-2 record with a .900 save percentage. 

It’s hard to beat a team twice in a row in the NHL, and the Pens haven’t proven that they should be trusted to do that. With the Leafs slowly digging out their early season hole, siding with the visitors tonight on the moneyline has some value at -110. 

Best Bet: Maple Leafs moneyline (-110)

There wasn’t a ton of offense present the last time these two teams met, meaning it’s somewhat surprising to see how juiced the over 6.5 is tonight at -130. Goal scoring certainly hasn’t been a problem for the Pens, while keeping the puck out of their net has been. The problems for the Leafs are the exact opposite, which is certainly not what you’d have expected entering this season. There’s a recipe here tonight that should see goals scored at a high pace, even if it’s not necessarily the best odds you’ll find on this big board of games. Still, there’s reason to be bullish about both teams filling the net tonight, meaning targeting the over 6.5 is the direction bettors should lean in. 

Best Bet: Over 6.5 (-130) 

It hasn’t necessarily been the start to the season that Mitch Marner and the Maple Leafs would have wanted from a goal-scoring perspective. The Leafs’ top winger has tallied three goals and fifteen assists through the first month and change of the regular season, but there’s more to give for him from a goal-scoring perspective. Marner broke out in the goal-scoring department last season, where he notched a career-best 35 goals, and he should see more chances to light the lamp after moving to the team’s second line after head coach Sheldon Keefe put the forward lines in a blender. The fact that Marner is listed above +200 to score tonight means that’s a price that’s far too juicy to pass up. 

Best Prop: Mitch Marner to Record Over 0.5 Goals (+205)

Thumbnail photo via Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

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