How Oddsmakers View Patriots For Rest Of Season After Bye Week

It hasn’t been the prettiest season for the Patriots, yet New England occupies the final playoff spot in the AFC ahead of Week 11.

The Patriots had their bye in Week 10 after beating up on the Colts in Week 9, a New England victory that spelled the end of Frank Reich’s head-coaching tenure in Indianapolis. Bill Belichick and company now enter a pivotal matchup with the Jets at Gillette Stadium, just three weeks removed from taking down New York in a Week 8 showdown at MetLife Stadium.

Overall, the Patriots have won four of their last five games to improve their record to 5-4. They’re still in last place in the AFC East, behind the Jets (6-3), Buffalo Bills (6-3) and Miami Dolphins (7-3), but there’s clearly a path for New England to reach the postseason — and maybe even win the division.

Which brings us to the futures betting market, where the Patriots still aren’t perceived as a huge threat. Here’s a look at New England’s futures odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, as of Tuesday night:

To win Super Bowl: +6000
To win AFC: +2800
To win AFC East: +1200
To make playoffs: Yes +135, No -165
Regular-season wins: Over 8.5 (-110), Under (-110)

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The odds have shifted since we last examined the market a couple of weeks ago following the NFL trade deadline. Going from +3500 to win the AFC East to +1200 speaks to the recent chaos within the division, where the Dolphins have supplanted the Bills atop the standings after Buffalo’s back-to-back losses to the Jets and Minnesota Vikings.

The Bills, despite their hiccups, remain the betting favorites to win the AFC East at -185. The Dolphins are nipping at their heels at +250, while the Jets sit slightly ahead of the Patriots at +1000.

The Patriots have the same Super Bowl odds (+6000) as the Jets and New York Giants, sandwiched between the Seattle Seahawks (+5000) and Green Bay Packers (+7000). The Bills (+400), Kansas City Chiefs (+500) and Philadelphia Eagles (+600) sit atop the Super Bowl betting board.

Eight teams — the Bills (+190), Chiefs (+225), Baltimore Ravens (+550), Dolphins (+900), Cincinnati Bengals (+1200), Tennessee Titans (+1800), Los Angeles Chargers (+2000) and Jets (+2500) — sit ahead of the Patriots in the conference winner market.

One possible reason for the continued skepticism regarding the Patriots’ ceiling this season, aside from their own flaws, particularly on offense: New England has one of the most difficult remaining schedules in the NFL.