Examining Patriots’ Futures Odds After 2022 NFL Trade Deadline

New England stood pat despite several rumors


Nov 2, 2022

The 2022 NFL trade deadline officially is in the rearview mirror, marking a good time to evaluate the New England Patriots’ odds on the futures betting market ahead of their Week 9 matchup with the Indianapolis Colts.

The Patriots, unlike their AFC East adversaries, stood pat at Tuesday’s deadline, opting to not make a trade for the second straight year. The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins, meanwhile, took a different approach, with the former acquiring running back Nyheim Hines from the Colts and the latter swinging a pair of deals that netted them running back Jeff Wilson and edge rusher Bradley Chubb from the San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos, respectively.

It was a wild 24 hours for the NFL, with a record 10 trades being made on deadline day alone. And that’s before you factor in the activity leading up to Tuesday, with Christian McCaffrey, Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn among the notable names to recently change teams.

The Patriots’ inactivity wasn’t all the surprising, especially with them having little salary cap space. It’s still interesting, though, because several New England players — including Isaiah Wynn, Damien Harris, Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor — were mentioned in trade rumors, and the Patriots have experienced enough low points this season to raise questions over whether they’re legitimate playoff contenders, let alone Super Bowl contenders.

Nevertheless, here’s a look at the Patriots’ futures odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, as of Wednesday afternoon:

To win Super Bowl: +7000
To win AFC: +4000
To win AFC East: +3500
To make playoffs: Yes +160, No -200
Regular-season wins: Over 8.5 (+105), Under 8.5 (-125)

Clearly, oddsmakers view the Patriots as a mediocre team roughly midway through the 2022 season. They have the same Super Bowl odds (+7000) as the Seattle Seahawks (+7000), sandwiched between teams like the Green Bay Packers (+5000), Tennessee Titans (+5000), New York Giants (+8000) and New Orleans Saints (+9000). For context, the Bills are the Super Bowl favorites at +225 — ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles (+500), Kansas City Chiefs (+650), San Francisco 49ers (+1300) and Dallas Cowboys (+1500), who round out the top five.

Seven teams sit ahead of New England on the conference winner betting board, which, of course, is paced by Buffalo (+100) and Kansas City (+300). The Patriots (+4000) trail the Baltimore Ravens (+1000), Dolphins (+1600), Cincinnati Bengals (+1600), Los Angeles Chargers (+1600) and Titans (+2500) among the next-tier AFC competitors.

The Bills remain heavy favorites to capture the AFC East crown, with -1200 odds. The Patriots sit between the Dolphins (+1000) and the New York Jets (+4000) in that particular market. New England, which defeated New York in Week 8, enters Week 9 in last place in the division with a 4-4 record. Buffalo is 6-1, while Miami and New York are both 5-3.

The Patriots would be on the outside looking in if the regular season ended and the NFL playoffs began after Week 8. But they’re certainly on the bubble, reflected in their odds, with the potential for their year to go either way down the stretch.

Thumbnail photo via Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports Images

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