Patriots Vs. Colts Betting Preview: Trends, Props, Pick For Week 9
The Patriots are 5.5-point favorites Sunday
The Patriots might technically be in last place in the AFC East, but the path to the playoffs is still paved quite nicely for New England.
The 4-4 Patriots have yet to really prove they can beat anyone who's actually good, but they might not have to in order to reach the postseason. That theory gets reinforced this Sunday when they welcome the 3-4-1 Colts to Gillette Stadium.
Despite the halfway respectable record and the fact that Indianapolis is in second place in the AFC South, Frank Reich's team does not look like a massive challenge. The Colts have a point differential of minus-28 for the season (the Patriots are plus-14), and Indy currently ranks 31st in overall DVOA at FootballOutsiders.com. Adding to the Patriots' good fortune is the fact that Indianapolis will be without star running back Jonathan Taylor.
The Colts are starting second-year quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who is making just his second career start. So, it should come as no surprise the Patriots are modest favorites for the Sunday matinee.
After last week's betting preview, in which we hit on both our Patriots and Jets prop plus the game pick, we're looking for similar success with this week's Colts-Pats preview.
Here's all bettors need to know for this weekend's Patriots-Colts showdown, with betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Indianapolis Colts at (-5.5) New England Patriots
Total: Over/under 40.5
When: Sunday, Nov. 6, 1 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, Mass.
BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
The Patriots have had their way with the Colts, winning eight of the last 10 meetings, including six in a row at Gillette. Of those 10 previous meetings, the Patriots covered in six of them and the over hit in eight. However, the Colts did win the most recent meeting. Indy covered as 1-point chalk on Dec. 18 last year, holding off New England for a 21-17 home win.
So far this season, the Patriots have been a much better road bet than home. New England is 1-2 straight-up and against the spread in Foxboro this season, most recently getting run out of the building by the Bears on Monday night in Week 7. Despite the Chicago slip-up, the Patriots are still 19-7 against the spread in their last 26 home games versus teams with losing records, according to DonBest. Dating back to the start of the Mac Jones era, the Patriots are 5-3 straight-up when favored between three and six points and are 4-3-1 ATS in those games. They are 3-0 and 2-0-1 ATS in the same situation this season.
PATRIOTS PROP TO CONSIDER
UNDER 2.5 team total touchdowns (-125) -- The bulk of the Colts' issues are on the offensive side of the ball. The defense has actually been pretty good and especially efficient. Indy is allowing just 1.76 points per drive this season, which ranks eighth in the league. The Colts have allowed more than 24 points once all season, and they've allowed more than 19 just once in their last four games. In those three games, Indy has allowed just two touchdowns -- and one of those was a pick-six. The Patriots, meanwhile, have had their own offensive problems. New England has scored touchdowns on just 46% of its trips to the red zone, and its 1.92 points per drive rank 20th in the league. Quite frankly, the big concern with a bet like this is the possibility of a defensive touchdown. It's a risk we're willing to take and expect this to be a big Nick Folk game for the Patriots.
COLTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Deon Jackson OVER 21.5 receiving yards (-110) -- The Taylor absence will get a lot of play, but the Indy rushing attack hasn't been nearly as effective as it was last season. Taylor's 4.3 yards per rush is a fairly significant drop from his 5.1 career average, and it isn't anywhere near the 5.5 yards he averaged per carry last season. By DVOA, Indy's rushing attack ranks dead last in the NFL. So, regardless of who lines up behind Ehlinger, the run game isn't much of a threat. The Colts will have to find a way to move the ball somehow, which likely means a lot of looks in the passing game for Jackson, who obviously just became the No. 1 backfield option. Jackson played 63% of the offensive snaps in Weeks 5 and 6, and he caught 14 passes for 108 yards. And if we assume the Colts are playing catch-up Sunday, opportunity plus game script should give Jackson opportunities to get the over -- even if the Patriots are keying on him in their game plan.
PICK: Patriots -5.5
We certainly could ride with the under yet again, which probably still hits regardless of who wins the game. And perhaps this is naive after essentially deploying the same logic two weeks ago against the Bears. But this feels like the perfect spot for Bill Belichick to flex his muscle. The Patriots -- again, aside from that Bears game -- have really taken bad teams to the woodshed. They beat the hell out of the Lions and Browns recently, and even their win over the Jets last week probably was more lopsided than the final score indicated. The Patriots will probably struggle to move the ball at times Sunday, especially with the offensive line issues. But the Colts might score 10 points tops, and you have to think New England will rely on a fairly conservative game plan in terms of limiting any sort of self-inflicted damage and just let Indy give the game to them.
