Fiesta Bowl Odds: Bet Michigan To Dominate Overrated TCU
The Wolverines are a 7.5-point favorite
The closer we get to the Fiesta Bowl, the less close I think the game will be.
It's No. 2 Michigan versus No. 3 TCU for a chance to play in college football's national championship against the winner of No. 1 Georgia and No. 4 Ohio State. The first Las Vegas sportsbooks to open the game hung Michigan -9 with a point total (over/under) of 60.
Early apple bites in the market showed for TCU and the Horned Frogs were quickly bet down from +9 to +8 and +7.5 over the first few days of bowl betting. Circa Sports even went as low as Michigan -7 before sharp money blasted it back to -7.5 and the consensus line hasn't budged from there.
There's obviously a reason this line has always been north of a touchdown. Bookmakers knew the market would have a natural attraction to a 12-1 team catching points, yet they still opened where they did.
Because the clock is about to strike midnight on Cinderella.
I think Michigan is better in every facet of the game. Its offense is better, its dominant defense is worlds ahead, the special teams are better and I'll take Jim Harbaugh over Sonny Dykes eight days a week.
And most importantly, Harbaugh has reinstilled a mental toughness and physicality that used to radiate around Ann Arbor for decades. The Wolverines finally cut the finesse crap and went back to bully ball. And all they've done is win 25 of their last 27 games over the last two seasons.
"TCU deserves a ton of credit for a successful season," one professional bettor told NESN. "The Horned Frogs overshot a disrespectful season win total (O/U 6.5) and covered nine of their 13 games.
"But let's get serious," the bettor continued. "This is the Fiesta Bowl, not inferior Big XII competition. That conference was garbage this season and now TCU has to battle a Michigan team that might be the most complete in America. They've got a Top-5 defense, a Top-10 offense and Harbaugh has built a physical monster on both sides of the ball.
"Michigan's dominance in the trenches has been eye-opening."
TCU fans can keep lighting up my mentions on Twitter and keep dreaming about their Frogs being good enough to sit at college football's main table. But I'm not there. I truly believe Michigan has the talent and toughness to expose TCU and waltz through the Fiesta Bowl and into the national title game.
I think the Wolverines win by two or three touchdowns.
Michigan -7.5 (-110)
RECORD: (120-126, +23.0)
