NFL Picks: Week 15 Best-Bet Parlay Not Sold On Patriots Being Fixed

The NESNBets best-bet parlay is limping to the finish line, to say the least.

The bad news is that we are on a massive losing streak. The good news is that we’ve essentially become a public service announcement on the downright worthlessness of forcing yourself to chase a parlay every week. That’s what you call a spin.

More good news: The NFL’s Saturday slate of games returns this week, and we have locked one in, so there’s a good chance we won’t even have to wait until Sunday for our hopes and dreams to be crushed.

Let’s get into the NFL Week 15 best-bet parlay based on consensus lines and totals from the NESNBets live odds page.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills UNDER 44
We talked earlier in the week about how this total has dropped with the forecasts of snow in Buffalo this weekend. It looks like the snow might be done with by Saturday night, but from a weather standpoint, we’re focused on the wind. Forecasts are calling for winds around 15 mph with gusts up around 25 mph all night, which might be a bigger factor for the passing game than anything else. Both of these offenses lean on the aerial attack and neither has a very strong running game. If the passing game is neutralized at all, then it’s hard to see how either moves the ball consistently. Regardless of weather, the Buffalo defense is stout and should give the Dolphins problems — and things might be even more difficult for Miami if Tyreek Hill’s ankle injury flares up at all. That the Bills felt the need to pry Cole Beasley out of retirement makes you think they’re not totally sold on their offensive viability, and Josh Allen’s elbow injury lingers.

NFL Week 15 Picks: Bills In Revenge Mode; Cowboys Trap Game?

Dec 15, 2022

Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 48
It appears Trevor Lawrence is making “the leap” right in front of us, folks. Last year’s No. 1 pick looks like a top selection now that he’s got Urban Meyer behind him. In his last five games, Lawrence has 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions while completing nearly 72% of his passes and is averaging 6.3 yards per carry for good measure. The Jags have won two of three, scoring at least 27 points three times. The offense as a whole ranks 13th in EPA per play over that run. The Cowboys offense is one of the best in the league, too, and the Jacksonville defense leaves something to be desired. Both teams will have opportunities. The Dallas defense is obviously one of the best in the league, but if they’re able to build an early lead, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the defense dialed back which is where the Jags offense — one of the fastest-paced units in the league — could make up some ground in garbage time.

Las Vegas Raiders moneyline over New England Patriots (-115)
The Patriots got back on track Monday night in the win column only. There was nothing overly impressive about their performance in Arizona, especially considering Kyler Murray lasted three plays before shredding his knee. The Patriots will likely face a tougher test on both sides of the ball this week in Las Vegas where Josh McDaniels probably has a good idea of what his former team will want to do. If anyone knows how to solve that Bill Belichick defense, especially, it’s McDaniels whose institutional knowledge of Foxboro is surpassed by a handful of people at most. The Raiders also look like they’re getting healthy and could have both Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow back on offense, which makes the Patriots’ attempts to take away Davante Adams even more difficult. The big issue for Vegas will be slowing down the Patriots’ pass rush with a patchwork offensive line, but McDaniels knows that and can build an offensive plan around that. And don’t be surprised if Mac Jones has company in the pocket all afternoon; Maxx Crosby is an elite pass rusher, and New England has offensive line issues of its own. The Patriots have been up and down all season, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see another lackluster peformance here.