NFL Odds: How Will Buffalo Snow Affect Dolphins-Bills Total, Line?

It’s happening again. Well, sort of, at least.

Earlier this season, the forecast for a potentially historic Buffalo snowstorm sent the over/under for a Bills-Browns game plummeting. Forecasts proved true, so much so, in fact, that the NFL moved the Buffalo-Cleveland game to Detroit. Ultimately, the weather didn’t play a role in how that game was won — on the field or at the sportsbook.

Now, with the Bills getting set to host the Miami Dolphins for an NFL Week 15 clash on Saturday night in Orchard Park, it looks like Highmark Stadium could be western New York’s biggest snowglobe. A winter storm watch for Erie County will go into effect Friday night and extend all the way through Tuesday morning.

The timing is still unclear, but a story on WIVB.com out of Buffalo says a possible 6 to 10 inches could fall Saturday, adding “heavier lake snow will start to shift southward into the southtowns during Saturday night after the Bills game.”

From a report on WGRZ.com, the NBC affiliate: “There is also the high likelihood for snow to be falling during the Bills game at Highmark Stadium with the chance for snow accumulations to be on the ground by kickoff.”

If Saturday’s snowfall is going to be less than a foot, it’s hard to see it impacting the actual scheduling of the game. The NFL likely would be reticent to move the game, as it’s one of three separate Saturday games — in primetime no less.

So, we’re likely to see the Bills and Dolphins try to figure it out. Bettors have already gone to work. The total for the game opened as high as 48.5 for a game featuring two of the top four offenses in the NFL by DVOA. The total sits at 44 across the board, but it has been a circuitous route to get there. At Caesars, for example, the number dipped all the way down to 41.5 on Monday, per WagerTalk.com’s live odds page.

The Bills opened as 7.5-point favorites and currently sit as 7-point favorites. It will be interesting to see if there’s any movement either way. The initial reaction might be to think a team from Miami, especially one like the Dolphins that relies so heavily on the passing game, might be in real trouble. Considering the Dolphins were using heaters on the sideline last week in Los Angeles, there might be some merit to that — though head coach Mike McDaniel would argue otherwise.

However, the Bills also rely heavily on Josh Allen and their own passing game. If it’s really bad, then it’s going to be tough for both offenses. Then again, if it’s only kind of bad, it might actually benefit the offenses. It’s easier for receivers to move when footing is suboptimal because they at least know where they’re going. The defense has to react to them, and it can be difficult to keep a player in front of you.

And as we’ve seen in the past, especially in Buffalo, if the wind starts blowing, the entire outlook of the game could change.

It’s definitely something for bettors — and fantasy football owners — to keep an eye on this weekend.