NFL Week 15 Picks: Bills In Revenge Mode; Cowboys Trap Game?
The playoff picture could start to come into focus this week
It’s Week 15 in the NFL, and as we are fully immersed in the holiday season, the playoff push is getting serious.
Four teams can punch their postseason tickets this week as the field starts to take shape.
Regardless of standing, NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle are back to make their weekly against-the-spread picks for each and every game — yes, even the Cardinals-Broncos game.
Before getting to their picks, here’s how they fared last week.
And here are their full Week 15 against-the-spread picks using the consensus betting lines from the NESNBets live odds page.
THURSDAY, DEC. 15
(-3.5) San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Seahawks. The injuries are hard to ignore for San Francisco. Not having Deebo Samuel removes a massive element of the offense, and quarterback Brock Purdy will be hampered at best by his own injury. Even if Purdy were 100%, I’m skeptical of laying more than a field goal with anyone making their first road start on a short week in the division.
Ricky: Seahawks. Catching more than three points with a decent-enough Seahawks team in a Thursday night divisional game is enough to justify the pick. It’s also kinda crazy this is the 49ers’ first true road game since before Halloween.
SATURDAY, DEC. 17
Indianapolis Colts at (-4) Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m.
Mike: Vikings. Indy is coming off a bye, but its head coach has about a month’s worth of coaching experience, so that’s not really that important. The doubt about the Vikings is real and warranted, but this spread seems like it should be closer to a touchdown than a field goal, so there’s a little value with Minnesota.
Ricky: Vikings. Minnesota was further exposed last week — when the sharps were all over Detroit, causing a huge spread swing — but this is a soft landing spot for the Vikings, even if they’re not necessarily among the NFL’s elite.
Baltimore Ravens at (-2.5) Cleveland Browns, 4:30 p.m.
Mike: Ravens. Regardless of who’s at quarterback for Baltimore, the Ravens have a massive advantage in the run game on both sides of the ball. The difference between their own rushing average per game and what they’re allowing is the best in the NFL, which should play well against a run-first Browns team that ranks 30th in the league in rush defense DVOA.
Ricky: Browns. Deshaun Watson looked a little sharper in his second game after almost a two-year layoff. So, maybe that momentum carries over into his first home start with Cleveland.
Miami Dolphins at (-7.5) Buffalo Bills, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Bills. My boldest Week 15 take might be that I think Miami is going to miss the playoffs, and if that’s going to be the case, it’ll probably lose this one. And when the Dolphins lose, they typically get steamrolled; Their five losses this season have come by an average of 13 points.
Ricky: Bills. Not only are the Dolphins coming off back-to-back concerning performances. They’re also traveling from California to western New York, where the forecast and the opponent don’t bode well for Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense getting back on track.
SUNDAY, DEC. 18
Atlanta Falcons at (-4) New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
Mike: Saints. It’s more points than I really want to lay with New Orleans, but Desmond Ridder making his first start in the Superdome isn’t particularly appealing, either. Regardless, it’s a bad game.
Ricky: Falcons. Usually hate taking a rookie quarterback making his first career start, as the floor that comes with entering the unknown is just way too low. But Marcus Mariota wasn’t really doing squat, anyway. So, there’s seemingly value here in grabbing the points and hoping for a spark from Ridder.
Pittsburgh Steelers at (-2.5) Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Panthers. Mitchell Trubisky is still bad, and the Panthers’ defense might be sneaky-elite. Since getting pasted in Week 9 at Cincinnati, the Panthers’ defense ranks third in the NFL in EPA per play allowed.
Ricky: Steelers. Pittsburgh usually makes for a solid underdog bet and now faces an opponent that’s still bad despite back-to-back wins (over the underwhelming Broncos and Seahawks, it should be noted).
(-9) Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bears. This game doesn’t really mean much to Philly at all, and the Eagles could probably sleep-walk their way to a win. Covering the nine? Not so sure, especially against a player like Justin Fields, who is always one play from breaking off a 65-yard score that gets within the number.
Ricky: Bears. Everyone is pumping Philadelphia’s tires right now. Understandable. But let’s zig while the crowd zags.
(-14) Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Texans. Houston is 3-1 against the spread this season when getting 10 points or more, while the Chiefs continue to let teams hang around … perhaps while putting an emphasis on prepping for the playoffs.
Ricky: Chiefs. Kansas City has the benefit of using Dallas’ performance against lowly Houston last week as a cautionary tale. Expect Andy Reid’s team to keep its foot on the gas after jumping out early.
(-4) Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jaguars. Trap game! Dallas has the Eagles next week, so it’s possible even with last week’s close call against Houston that Mike McCarthy’s team gets caught looking ahead. This is legitimately the best Trevor Lawrence has ever played (72% completion, seven touchdowns, zero interceptions last four games), and he’s probably the best QB that Dallas has seen since Aaron Rodgers in a Week 10 loss.
Ricky: Cowboys. Trap game? Maybe. But I’m not falling into the trap of taking the Jaguars after last week’s 14-point win over the Titans. Tennessee has proven fraudulent, and Jacksonville briefly sucked everyone in earlier this season, as well.
Detroit Lions at (-1) New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jets. Everyone fell in love with the Detroit offense in October, and then they played New England and Dallas. The Lions scored a combined six points in two losses. Dallas has the NFL’s best defense by DVOA, the Patriots are third, and the Jets are sixth. Add in this game is outside in the cold, and it’s hard to see how Detroit scores.
Ricky: Jets. The Lions being 2.5-point home favorites against the Vikings last week, only to then be 1-point underdogs against the Jets this week, speaks volumes about what oddsmakers think of Minnesota, huh? Anyway, I’m with Mike on this one: New York’s defense poses too strong a challenge for Detroit.
Arizona Cardinals at (-3) Denver Broncos, 1 p.m.
Mike: Broncos. Colt McCoy vs. Brett Rypien isn’t exactly Kyler Murray vs. Russell Wilson, yet here we are. We know Murray won’t play, and Wilson could play, so that’s a determining factor — as is Denver’s defense (No. 5 in DVOA) compared to the 26th-ranked Arizona defense.
Ricky: Cardinals. Denver wins 2-0.
(-1) New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Raiders. The vibes are better with the Patriots right now, but this is a tough matchup, especially given the injury situation. New England took a beating Monday against Arizona, and they have a massive rest disadvantage against Vegas, who has extended rest after playing Thursday. I’ve got more confidence in Josh McDaniels scheming something up against his former team to keep Derek Carr clean than I do Matt Patricia doing the same against the Maxx Crosby-led Raiders pass rush.
Ricky: Raiders. A Monday night win in Arizona — against a backup QB, no less — did little to change my overall skepticism regarding the Patriots.
Tennessee Titans at (-3) Los Angeles Chargers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Titans. This is a real litmus test for Derrick Henry and the Titans rushing attack, which really hasn’t done much this season. If there’s a game to get right, though, it’s this one against the 25th-ranked DVOA run defense. Tennessee finds a way to grind this down and frustrates LA in a game of keep-away.
Ricky: Titans. Very hypocritical pick here, seeing as I’ve long been down on the Titans. But Sunday night felt like a kitchen-sink game from the Chargers, who have turned collapsing in the face of expectations into an art form in recent years.
(-3.5) Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Bengals. The Bucs are so bad that having Tom Brady feels like an afterthought.
Ricky: Bengals. It took a little bit to get here, but this version of the Bengals is better than last season’s version that went to the Super Bowl.
New York Giants at (-4.5) Washington Commanders, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Giants. The Commanders have just one loss since mid-October, but aside from the relatively fluky Philly win, every game they have played has been a rock fight, including a 20-20 tie with the Giants two weeks ago. It’s hard to lay more than a field goal with D.C.
Ricky: Giants. Washington has played well with Taylor Heinicke behind center, but he still puts the ball in harm’s way too often to feel confident giving well north of a field goal in this divisional showdown. Take the points and root for another tie.
MONDAY, DEC. 19
Los Angeles Rams at (-7) Green Bay Packers, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Rams. The Packers, unsurprisingly, haven’t been good as big-ish favorites this season, covering just once (and losing outright twice) when laying a touchdown or more. Sean McVay gets extra prep time with Baker Mayfield, and he should be able to cook up something against Packers defensive Joe Barry, someone with whom he’s familiar from their time together in Washington and LA.
Ricky: Packers. Time for the real Baker Mayfield to show up.
