Patriots-Dolphins Betting Preview: Trends, Pick For Week 17 Clash

When the Patriots and Dolphins kick off Sunday at Gillette Stadium, it technically will be a Week 17 regular-season game.

But for intents and purposes, it’s a playoff game, especially for New England.

New England’s playoff hopes are hanging on by a thread after losing yet another heartbreaker in Week 16 to the Cincinnati Bengals in Foxboro. However, a win Sunday puts the Patriots right back in the thick of the playoff race. In fact, if New England can beat the Dolphins at Gillette Stadium, it will control its destiny going into a Week 18 road game against the Buffalo Bills.

A loss to the Dolphins, though, will eliminate the Patriots from playoff contention.

The Dolphins are in a similar albeit not as dire situation. Miami is riding a four-game skid and what looked like a sure-thing run to the playoffs is now a coin toss. But like the Patriots, a win Sunday gives the Dolphins their playoff fate in their own hands. A loss would make the path far more difficult.

This is an interesting matchup from a betting perspective, too. Miami opened as consensus 2.5-point favorites, but that has swung nearly a full touchdown with New England sitting as late-week 3-point favorites. That’s because the Dolphins will be without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is back in concussion protocol. Veteran QB Teddy Bridgewater will get the start in his place.

Here’s what else bettors need to know for the Week 17 clash between the Patriots and Dolphins with lines and props from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Miami Dolphins at (-3) New England Patriots
Total: 41
When: Saturday, Dec. 31, 1 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, Mass.

BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
The Dolphins have been a puzzle Bill Belichick and the Patriots have struggled to solve in recent years. Miami won the last four meetings between the two teams. The Dolphins were underdogs in three of those four games, the only time they were favored being Week 1 in Miami. The Dolphins cruised to a 20-7 win in the season opener. The Patriots failed to cover against everyone recently. New England is 1-4 against the spread in its last five games overall, and it’s just 2-5 ATS in its last seven divisional games. However, the Patriots have been quite profitable as short favorites, covering their three and pushing once in their last four games laying three or less.

Miami, meanwhile, has been the opposite of the Patriots in the division, covering four of its last five AFC East contests. And you can’t have a conversation about Dolphins betting trends without mentioning Bridgewater’s incredible ATS record. Bridgewater’s 42-20 (68%) ATS record is the best among all active NFL quarterbacks and is the best of any QB ever with at least 25 starts dating back to the merger in 1970.

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PICK: OVER 41
The Patriots-related total trends almost all point to the under, with the total going under in six of New England’s last eight games and five of its last six home games, per Odds Shark. The narratives also point to the under, too, as no one feels good about what the Patriots offense can (or can’t) do right now, and the Dolphins are playing with a backup quarterback. However, both teams are dealing with key injuries on the defense, especially New England. The Patriots could once again be down most of their entire secondary. Oh, and here comes Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The second half last week looks good, but the Bengals got everything they wanted in the first half and could have scored even more than the 22 points they scored before ultimately dialing it back in the second half.

And regardless of how they play, it feels like the defense is live to score a touchdown every week. The Miami defense has its own issues, too, with injuries on that side of the ball. For all of the problems the Patriots offense has had, they are averaging 5.4 yards per play this season which is slightly above league average. They run into situational problems like on third down and in the red zone, but Miami ranks 25th and 23rd in those areas, respectively. It’s not like this is a sky-high total, either, and with unseasonably warm temperatures set for Foxboro on Sunday, it feels quite doable.