Justin Jefferson Plus-Money Bet Tops Best NFL Wild-Card Props

We had a nice addition to our prop handicapping last week with player and playoff incentives. This week, it’s win or go home, which is enough motivation for any player in the league.

Here are some player prop bets we’ve circled for the NFL’s wild-card round games this weekend.

Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown (+110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Can someone please tell me why the player who has the most red-zone targets in the league is at plus-money to score a touchdown? Justin Jefferson is not only seeing the targets, but he’s finding the end zone, too, with eight touchdowns in 2022. Now, he’s facing a Giants defense that is not only bottom-10 in pass DVOA, but bottom-10 defending the opposing team’s No. 1 wide receiver. Bet it before the plus money is gone.

Justin Herbert over 37.5 pass attempts (-114, FanDuel)
This game went from a pick ’em to the Chargers being favored, but I still see the possibility of a Jacksonville win. There should be a healthy amount of back and forth in what is expected to be a close game. The first matchup was a 38-10 blowout by the Jags where Herbert had 45 pass attempts. I don’t see a blowout happening for either side, but for a top-ranked QB who averaged over 41 pass attempts per game (second-most) this season against a defense that ranks third-worst in pass DVOA and allowed more than 35 attempts (seventh-most) a game, 38 might be too low. The Bolts enter the postseason with the second-highest passing play percentage at 65%, so regardless of game script, this over should hit.

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Ja’Marr Chase over 6.5 catches (+102, FanDuel)
Here’s another prop that doesn’t look right sitting at plus money. The Bengals star is averaging more than 11 targets (second-most) per game, has had seven or more catches in eight straight games (including eight against Baltimore in Week 18) and has only gone under this number three times all season, missing one by the hook. I also like the over on Chase’s receiving yards prop set at 76.5, especially after he just had 86 last week against Baltimore, but it’s hard to pass up the plus money on his catches.

Christian McCaffrey over 73.5 rush yards (-115, FanDuel)
San Francisco is a heavy 10-point home favorite, which means it’s likely to get a healthy lead and will be able to lean on its new star back on the ground. This total has been bet down to 42 (second-lowest on the board) and will likely head further south with the latest weather report. An inch or more of rain through the day is expected with possible wind up to 32 mph, which bodes well for the run game, as well. Outside of weather, Christian McCaffrey is averaging almost 85 rush yards in his last six games and had 108 yards on 26 carries a few weeks ago against this Seahawks squad. Seattle has been vulnerable to running backs all season, allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (over 150). McCaffrey has made an impact in the passing game, too, averaging over 42 receiving yards since joining the 49ers, so it’s worth taking a look at his receiving props. However, with the third-most 20-plus-yard rushing plays (nine) in the NFL, expect a full stat sheet for McCaffrey at his new home stadium and take the over on his rush yards.