NFL Championship Picks: Who Will Punch Ticket To Super Bowl?

Lines are tight as ever when it comes down to the NFL’s conference championship weekend. With only two games receiving action, some numbers have moved considerably, so you want to make sure you aren’t chasing a number too much.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs -1
This line has been all over the place. The Chiefs opened as a two-point favorite but quickly became a dog with instant money on the Bengals. By Thursday, the Chiefs were back to being a one-point favorite across the board following the video and talk about Patrick Mahomes walking without a limp or a boot. That being said, I think there is great value with the Bengals here. Joe Burrow and friends have beaten a 100% healthy Mahomes the last three times they faced him. This season, the Bengals won 27-24 while limiting Mahomes to just 223 passing yards and one touchdown through the air. This Cincinnati offense just made everything look easy against a tough Buffalo Bills defense, and they’re now facing a below-average defense and by far the worst defensive unit remaining in the playoffs. Take the plus money with the Bengals.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles -2.5
This game is tough to handicap. Two stellar defenses and strong ground games. I lean under on the total of 46.5, which has moved up from where it opened at 45.5. Similar to how we target key numbers for sides, we do the same with totals. Since 47 is a key number, we need to be mindful of that hook (0.5) — which could make a big difference down the stretch. I could see the 49ers run game heating up and exposing the Eagles run defense (21st in DVOA), which doesn’t come close to to the strength of their No. 1 pass defense. Likewise, I think the Eagles have a balanced and elite offense to give San Francisco’s defense trouble in spots. In the end, I see the Eagles coming out on top of a tight matchup.

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Super Bowl Forecast: Cincinnati Bengals over Philadelphia Eagles +550
The Bengals were as big as 28-1 longshots before the season started. Now with the second-best odds at +260 to win it all, the value is long gone. Here is one market to target if you’re looking for longer odds. As I mentioned above, I do like these two to make it to the Super Bowl and although early lines predict the Eagles to be a small one-point favorite over the Bengals, I think the Bengals get it done with a balanced run and passing game. Don’t agree with me? Take your pick from the selections below at FanDuel:

Cincinnati Bengals to beat Philadelphia Eagles +550
Cincinnati Bengals to beat San Francisco 49ers +700
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Philadelphia Eagles +500

Kansas City Chiefs to beat San Francisco 49ers +700
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Cincinnati Bengals +550
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Kansas City Chiefs +500