The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 50-1 long shots to win the Super Bowl ahead of the 2020 NFL season: enter Tom Brady.
The Bucs, of course, signed the six-time Super Bowl winner after his exit from New England. A reinvigorated Brady wasted no time getting to work, and he went on to win his seventh Lombardi Trophy in his first season with Tampa Bay.
If you had gotten the Bucs at that 50-1 number before Brady signed, you would have had yourself a nice little payday — especially compared to the 15-1 or even 11-1 numbers we saw after Brady (and then Rob Gronkowski) became a Buc.
While the NFL landscape looks vastly different since then, history could repeat itself with Brady this offseason, at least to the point where there’s some hidden value on a team to win next year’s Super Bowl.
DraftKings Sportsbook has been very active with its next-team market for some of the NFL’s biggest players. Those markets are currently unavailable, but let’s take a quick look at the “favorites” to sign Brady from two weeks ago when DK opened the Brady 2023 team market.
For which team will Tom Brady take his next regular-season snap?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +200
Las Vegas Raiders +250
San Francisco 49ers +350
New England Patriots +750
Miami Dolphins +750
There has been plenty of chatter about Brady leaving the Bucs. Longtime friend Julian Edelman believes he’s done with Tampa Bay, and some Bucs teammates think he’s on the way out, too. So, for the sake of argument, let’s just say that’s the case.
If the Bucs, who would make plenty of sense, are actually out of the picture, the Raiders are the obvious favorite to sign Brady. There were whispers about a move to the desert in Brady’s first free agency foray, and the case is even stronger now. Raiders coach Josh McDaniels thrived as Patriots offensive coordinator with Brady in New England, so they obviously work well together. Vegas also has an arsenal of weapons, headlined by Davante Adams as well as Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller. The Raiders play in a dome, too, which should be enticing for someone trying to play quarterback at the age of 46.
But there’s not a lot of value on that +250 number, and it might get even shorter as time progresses. With that in mind, there could be more value on betting the Raiders to win Super Bowl LVIII next year.
DraftKings does have Super Bowl odds for next season posted. Right now, the Raiders are a relative long shot at 40-1, behind teams like the Jets, Lions, Rams and Jaguars. Again, the Bucs were 50-1 before Brady signed in 2020 and quickly shot up to 15-1. Given the shorter odds plus familiarity with McDaniels and the system, it’s reasonable to expect a number in the 10- or 12-1 neighborhood should Brady sign with the Raiders.
This isn’t very tangible at all, but if you’re really looking for a history repeating itself angle, the Super Bowl next season is at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. In Brady’s first season with the Bucs, he became the first quarterback to win a Super Bowl in his home stadium. So, there’s that parallel, too.
The biggest drawback, though, is Brady not only is three years older, but the AFC West also is a lot stronger than the NFC South was when Brady signed in Tampa Bay. (For that reason, a bet on the Bucs at 40-1 might also be worth a few bucks, too.)
Ultimately, it’s going to be a tough hill to climb for an aging Brady to win another improbable Super Bowl. But at least there’s more value for a hefty payout.
