MLB Betting Preview: Yankees Are Possible Regression Candidate

With Opening Day just over a month away, there are plenty of bets you can make before the first pitch. The question is: What bets should you make before the season starts?

I’ll be breaking down one preseason bet to make for each team in the American League East in order from the shortest to longest odds on FanDuel to win the division. To no surprise, the New York Yankees are up first.

New York Yankees: +110 to win AL East 
Bet to make now: Under 94.5 Regular Season Wins (-120) 
Bookmakers have given the Yankees the second-highest win total in MLB, behind only the Houston Astros. New York finished last season with 99 wins and might have one of the best rosters in baseball this season, but I’m still taking the under. It signed All-Star starting pitcher Carlos Rodon over the offseason to bolster the rotation but simultaneously lost its other big addition in Frankie Montas, who it acquired last season. Montas will be sidelined until at least the All-Star break after undergoing shoulder surgery. Taking a hit to its pitching staff before the season starts is not ideal, no matter how deep it is.

On offense, the lineup led by Aaron Judge was very hit-or-miss last season — literally. After the All-Star break, Judge continued to light it up batting .349/.502/.785 where his teammates slashed .223/.292/.360. Basically, Judge was hitting at a historic rate while his teammates performed well below average. If the other Yankees carry that same underwhelming production to the 2023 season, more losses should be expected. Plus, it’ll be difficult for Judge to recreate his unforgettable 2022 season on top of the possibility of injury. A few games or weeks out for any player in their top-heavy lineup could very likely lead to an under on their win total that is only four games under what they produced in a healthy and historic Judge-reliant season.