UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield Preview & Best Bets


Feb 17, 2023

A top-ten women’s flyweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 219 as No. 3 Jessica Andrade faces No. 10 Erin Blanchfield.

  • Date: Saturday, February 19, 2023 | Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: UFC Apex – Enterprise, Nevada | TV: ESPN+
The Great Ape Challenges A Veteran

The 39-year-old Jim Miller enters this contest looking for a fourth-straight winAlexander Hernandez will answer the call as he tries to bounce a two-fight losing skid. Hernandez has had an inconsistent UFC career, beating Beneil Dariush, Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Francisco Trinaldo, Chris Gruetzemacher, and Mike Breeden but losing to Donald Cerrone, Drew Dober, Thiago Moises, Renato Moicano, and Billy Quarantillo.

The 30-year-old will have a one-inch height and one-inch reach advantage. Hernandez should also have the power edge, averaging 0.54 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Miller’s 0.19. Miller will be more conservative on the feet, landing 1.3 fewer significant strikes per minute and absorbing 1.61 fewer.

Both fighters average almost identical takedown attempts, but Hernandez has the superior takedown defense rate, 61 percent to Miller’s 47. However, Miller averages 1.60 more submission attempts per 15 minutes. Despite being the older fighter, Miller will probably have a better gas tank.

At +186 outright, Miller is a live dog, and at +500 has a chance to pick up a submission win.

The Beverly Hills Ninja Faces The Ripper

Consider this a pink-slip-on-a-pole match. Jordan Wright has lost three in a row and four of five, while Zac Pauga was knocked out in his UFC debut. Wright’s three-fight losing streak includes being finished in all three (two TKO, one submission).

Both fighters are six-feet-two-inches tall, but Wright will have a one-inch reach advantage. Wright is moving up to light heavyweight from middleweight, while Pauga is coming down from heavyweight.

Despite having a suspect chin, Wright brings quite a bit of power, averaging 1.44 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Both fighters exhibit a high volume of significant strikes, Wright landing 5.67 per minute and Pauga 5.71.

The big difference is Wright absorbs a staggering 7.54 significant strikes per minute, while Pauga eats 2.14. Wrestling shouldn’t play a huge factor in this bout. Both fighters have a perfect takedown defense rate, with Wright attempting 3.6 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Pauga is a significant favorite at -290, but he holds more value to knock Wright out at -150.

UFC Women’s Flyweight Main Event
  • Jessica Andrade vs. Erin Blanchfield
  • Odds to Win: Andrade -134 | Blanchfield +110
  • How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +105 | Submission +260 | Decision +185
  • Will the fight go the distance? Yes +192 | No -260

Erin “Cold Blooded” Blanchfield was supposed to face Taila Santos, but Santos withdrew due to personal reasons. Enter Jessica “Bate Estaca” Andrade.

A big test awaits Blanchfield when she steps into the cage opposite Andrade. Since losing to Valentina Shevchenko for the UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship, Andrade has run through Cynthia Calvillo, Amanda Lemos, and Lauren Murphy.

Through Andrade’s last 15 bouts, she has only lost four fights, all to champions (Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Zhang Weili, Rose Namajunas, and Shevchenko). At 23, Blanchfield is eight years Andrade’s junior. Cold Blooded is riding a seven-fight win streak, winning ten of 11 contests, with her only loss being a controversial split decision.

Blanchfield will have a three-inch height and four-inch reach advantage. Andrade is a fearless fighter, averaging 0.21 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Blanchfield’s zero. The Brazilian lands 6.8 significant strikes per minute to the American’s 5.79. However, Andrade absorbs 2.81 more significant strikes per minute.

The big difference could be in the grappling, with Blanchfield averaging four takedowns per 15 minutes to Andrade’s 2.72. Both fighters have a similar takedown rate at 73 and 75 percent, but Blanchfield averages 1.03 more submissions per 15 minutes.

Blanchfield could be a future champion, but facing Andrade on a week’s notice might be too much, too soon. Take Bate Estaca to win outright at -134.

UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield Betting Card
  • Miller to win outright (+190)
  • Pauga by KO/TKO (-140)
  • Andrade to win outright (-134)
Thumbnail photo via Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

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