Chicago Blackhawks vs. Detroit Red Wings Betting Preview and Picks

The NHL Trade Deadline is in the rearview mirror, and two teams that were sellers face off on Wednesday night. The Detroit Red Wings, who were within striking distance of a playoff spot before moving several notable players last week, host the Chicago Blackhawks at Little Caesars Arena.

Although both teams appear to be running out the clock on the regular season, one has a pronounced advantage analytically.

• Location: Little Caesars Arena | Detroit, MI
• Time: 7:30 pm ET | TV: TNT

The Red Wings threw in the towel after consecutive losses to the Ottawa Senators. Detroit could have used the back-to-back to surpass the Sens in the standings; instead lost back-to-back games by a cumulative 12-3 score. Still, their problems are more profound than at face value. 

The once-proud Wings have been utterly dominated over the past couple of weeks. Detroit has been outplayed in seven of their last eight games, taking a turn for the worse more recently. Since February 28, the Red Wings haven’t posted an expected goals-for rating above 39.6%. More embarrassingly, they have a cumulative 35.3% benchmark across the four-game sample.

• Spread: Blackhawks +1.5 (-125) | Red Wings -1.5 (+104)
• Moneyline: Blackhawks +202 | Red Wings -250
• Total: Over 5.5 (-130) | Under 5.5 (+106)

The Hawks aren’t without their lineup concerns, but moving on from a few key players has yielded a more complete team effort over their recent sample.

Chicago has posted an expected goals-for rating above 50.0% in three of their last five outings, relying on more stout defensive efforts to limit the opposition. All but one of those teams have been held to nine or fewer high-danger opportunities, with three of five contained to seven or fewer. That will pose a problem for a Red Wings squad that hasn’t attempted more than eight quality chances in five straight.

Still, the Blackhawks’ outcomes don’t reflect their current performances; they’ve dropped four of their previous five. Output has been a concern for the Hawks, but their underlying production metrics suggest that increased scoring could be on the horizon.

The Original Six franchise has out-chanced their opponents in high-danger chances in three of five. More importantly, they’ve seen a modest uptick in opportunities, averaging 8.8 over their last five, compared to their season average of 7.4.

Improved scoring should follow their jump in production.

• Blackhawks Moneyline +202
• Tyler Johnson Any Time Goal Scorer +300

The Hawks moved on from the usual scoring suspects at the deadline, creating time and space for secondary skaters to step up. Among those is Tyler Johnson, who has taken on a more prominent role with the team. 

Johnson has played above his season average in minutes in four of the past five games. Moreover, he’s attempted nine shots over that stretch while playing on the team’s powerplay and in the top six. Lastly, he ranks fifth on the team in shooting percentage among players who have played at least 20 games. 

Chicago isn’t rolling over and dying, a sentiment that the Red Wings don’t share. The Blackhawks have been the superior team lately, but that’s not reflected in their betting price. Wednesday night is an ideal spot to back the Hawks and Johnson as an any-time goal scorer.