Cavaliers-Knicks Preview: Advantage to The Garden

The New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers will take their series to the Garden tonight knotted at a game a piece. Each team got in its share of blows, and this series feels like it will go seven games. The Cavs sit with –134 odds on the FanDuel Sportsbook to advance to the East Semifinals.Cavaliers @ Knicks Game Information

• Location: Madison Square Garden | New York, NY
• Time: 8:30 p.m. ET | TV: ABC

Something about this Knicks team feels right. They have the depth, top-level scoring, and timely defense to battle with a feisty team like the Cavs. Jalen Brunson is playing well, scoring when needed and facilitating when the shots aren’t falling. Julius Randle can provide high-level scoring as well. 

With quality depth, New York has many options, including Immanuel Quickley, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Josh Hart, giving them the edge in bench points. I know it’s talked about every year, but if a top-level free agent finally chooses the Knicks, they could become a title contender.

The Cavs have talent as well. Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Evan Mobley headline a strong core as they build up their roster with an eye toward entering the elite class of the Eastern Conference, which includes Milwaukee, Philly, and Boston, the top three seeds.

• Spread: Cavaliers +1.5 (-108) | Knicks -1.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: Cavaliers (+106) | Knicks (-124)
• Total: Over 211 (-110) | Under 211 (-110)

I like the home team, and I’ll look to Cleveland’s lack of playoff experience as they head into Madison Square Garden, which will be rocking.

Regardless, if this game were on a neutral floor, I’d still like the Knicks in a bounce-back spot, as their dreadful shooting performance in Game 2 won’t continue at home. This will be fun, but I see the ‘Bockers pulling away in the fourth quarter.

• Jalen Brunson OVER 24.5 Points (-106)
• Donovan Mitchell UNDER 5.5 Assists (-104) 
• Jarrett Allen OVER 10.5 Rebounds (+100)

Brunson surpassed this total in Game 1 but struggled in Game 2, going 5-17 from the field and 1-8 from three, still dropping 20. With improved shooting, he’ll get us five more points tonight. Doesn’t feel like a huge ask. Behind a raucous MSG, I could see Brunson approach 30 points.

This will not be a popular pick, but I’m looking to fade Mitchell’s assist prop after he’s averaged 10.5 assists through the first two playoff games. Those 21 assists resulted from only 11 potential assists per game. That success rate is not sustainable. Expecting Mitchell to regress is a solid bet, especially at a good value.

Cleveland bigs Mobley, and Jarrett Allen have been tearing up the glass in this series, averaging 12 boards per game. We will target Allen’s prop at even money, with Allen averaging six more rebound chances per game than Mobley, whose OVER 9.5 rebound line is heavily juiced.