Professional Bettor Knows Red Sox Rotation Will Dictate Team’s Destiny

Ten games into the 2023 MLB season, the biggest Boston Red Sox issue is obvious.

It’s certainly not the offense (5.9 runs per game), which is likely surprising to some after a complete lineup overhaul with rookies Masataka Yoshida and Triston Casas and veterans like Justin Turner.

Sure, Boston might struggle to score runs in the micro against a loaded Tampa Bay Rays pitching staff, but it should consistently put up enough crooked numbers when guys like Adam Duvall and Trevor Story return to the lineup and rejoin the fun.

The Sox bullpen has been a nice surprise, too, boasting a 3.09 ERA. That number has dipped stupendously since a wacky Opening Day when the Baltimore Orioles plated five runs against Boston’s ‘pen.

That leaves the elephant in the room — the starting rotation.

“It’s simple for the Red Sox,” one professional bettor told NESN from Las Vegas. “It’s all going to come down to their best five staying healthy and performing. It’s not easy to give Chris Sale (11.25 ERA) the benefit of the doubt given all that’s happened the last few years, but a guy like that needs to be better.”

Boston’s starter ERA (5.96) was the fifth-worst in baseball entering Tuesday.

Celtics Odds: Where Boston’s Prices Stand Entering NBA Playoffs

Apr 10, 2023

Worst MLB starter ERAs via FanGraphs:
OAK 9.53
DET 7.49
PIT 6.52
TOR 6.22
BOS 5.96
STL 5.96
BAL 5.85
WSH 5.56

“Two starts a pop is far from a large sample size, but Sale and (Corey) Kluber have been hit hard,” the bettor continued. “Nick Pivetta — one earned run in two starts — has been downright awesome and you’re still waiting on guys like (Garrett) Whitlock and Brayan Bello to cement the back end.

“The Red Sox will live and die with those five guys.”

Whitlock is set to make his 2023 debut Tuesday night in Tampa Bay against Rays ace Shane McClanahan. The Rays opened as -180 favorites at most American sportsbooks with a total set at O/U 7.5.

Feels like a 3-2 final, doesn’t it?

The Rays are still unblemished this season and that baseball club looks downright scary right now. They’re the first MLB team to start 10-0 in 36 years and they currently rank first in home runs, on-base percentage, slugging, on-base plus slugging, ERA, hits allowed, runs allowed and shutouts.

Sheesh.

“Let’s see what happens when the schedule toughens up,” the bettor said. “It’s an amazing start, but they’ve beaten up on Detroit, Washington and Oakland, all teams that could lose 100 games.”