New Kids on the Block: An Analysis of NFL Rookie Receiving Yards Betting Odds


Jul 18, 2023

The sportsbooks are painting a fascinating picture of the NFL‘s Most Regular Season Rookie Receiving Yards. The favorite, Jordan Addison, is at a solid +230, followed by Jaxon Smith-Njigba at +300. Further down the list, you’ll find Quentin Johnston at +550, and the only other rookie under +1000 is Zay Flowers at that price.

The first thing you might notice about this board is how challenging this market might be to predict. This challenge mainly arises because these rookies, often drafted in the first round, usually land with organizations in dire need of a top wide receiver. They would likely get numerous targets in those situations, but that’s not the case for these rookies.

Let’s break down the scenarios for our key players:

Jordan Addison is expected to shake things up in Minnesota. Despite sharing the field with Justin Jefferson, arguably the NFL’s top wide receiver, Addison could still see his share of targets. It helps that the Minnesota Vikings‘ quarterback, Kirk Cousins, is known for racking up plenty of yards. However, Addison will still be playing settle fiddle to Jefferson.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a standout at Ohio State, finds himself with the Seattle Seahawks, a location filled with established stars. Can he break through and make his mark among these giants? Overcoming DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in Seattle is a daunting task for Smith-Njigba especially coming off a career year for quarterback Geno Smith.

Quentin Johnston appears to be a potential deep threat, potentially an instant impact player for the Los Angeles Chargers. However, two established stars, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, are already on the roster fighting for the ball. Will he be able to establish his presence effectively?

Finally, Zay Flowers could have been a go-to option, but Odell Beckham Jr. joining the Baltimore Ravens complicates things a little.

These rookie wideouts have been placed in remarkable situations. They can gradually blend into their respective offenses, perfect their routes, and receive legitimate looks from their quarterbacks without the pressure of being the main focus. From a bettor’s perspective, these circumstances can make it challenging to choose a surefire bet.

But let’s turn our attention further down the board to an intriguing +3000 bet, Jahmyr Gibbs. The Detroit Lions will be fast-paced, and Gibbs is set to be a pass-catching running back. Could there be a touch of value on Gibbs at +3000?

As we dive deeper into the season, seeing how these rookies perform and which bets will pay off will be interesting. Watch for any shifts in the market and adjust your bets accordingly.

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Thumbnail photo via Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

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