Predicting Patriots’ 2023 Record: Picking Every Game On Schedule

It’s been a long time since the New England Patriots were favored to win the AFC East.

A major reason behind that, obviously, is the departure of legendary quarterback Tom Brady. But that’s not the only reason. Opponents around the division have come a long way. The three-time defending champion Buffalo Bills are a clear example of that. And now the New York Jets’ headline-grabbing 2023 offseason has Gang Green with high expectations of their own.

So where do Bill Belichick’s Patriots fit in? New England’s win total currently is set at 7.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook and the Patriots are 8-1 to win the division behind the Bills (+120), Jets (+250) and Miami Dolphins (+290).

As part of our AFC East and NFL preview, we’re going through the schedule for each team in the division to make our game-by-game predictions.

Here’s how we see the Patriots’ slate playing out:

(Odds are courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.)

WEEK 1: vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-5) — LOSS (0-1)
Patriots fans will flock to Gillette Stadium to see a pregame ceremony honoring Tom Brady’s two decades with the organization. It’s just too bad those supporters won’t see a victory given the defending NFC champion Eagles come to town with one of the deepest rosters in the NFL.

WEEK 2: Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (-2) — WIN (1-1)
The Dolphins’ defense figures to be much improved this season with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. But it might take a little while to get into a groove, and the preseason injury to star cornerback Jalen Ramsey means the Patriots won’t have to play Ramsey this season.

WEEK 3: Patriots at New York Jets (-5.5) — LOSS (1-2)
Belichick against Aaron Rodgers will be must-see television, but the Jets — well, at least on paper — have one of the best rosters in the league. This one comes down to New York’s defense limiting Mac Jones and the Patriots, especially if New England’s offensive line can’t get up to speed before traveling to the Meadowlands.

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WEEK 4: Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) — LOSS (1-3)
It certainly is not an easy start for Bill O’Brien as New England’s offensive coordinator is thrown into the fire early. Dallas, similar to Philadelphia and New York, is expected to have one of the league’s best defenses with Defensive Player of the Year favorite Micah Parsons, pass-rusher Demarcus Lawrence and a cornerback duo of Trevon Diggs and former Patriot Stephon Gilmore.

WEEK 5: Patriots (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints — WIN (2-3)
New England returns to Gillette Stadium after two challenging games on the road. The Saints will have running back Alvin Kamara back from a suspension, but Belichick has always had an answer for quarterback Derek Carr, who has three losses in four career games against the Patriots.

WEEK 6: Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders — WIN (3-3)
With Jakobi Meyers now on Josh McDaniels’ sideline, the Patriots will try to redeem themselves after last year’s last-second loss in Las Vegas. Perhaps Jones will be remembered for a different reason in Sin City, rather than being stiff-armed through the Earth’s core.

WEEK 7: Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills (-4.5) — LOSS (3-4)
The Patriots defense might be able to limit Josh Allen, but don’t expect it to completely shut him down. And points might be hard to come by for New England’s offense.

WEEK 8: Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-4.5) — LOSS (3-5)
We opted for the home-and-home split.

WEEK 9: Patriots (-3.5) vs. Washington Commanders — WIN (4-5)
While the Patriots open their season with an incredibly challenging four-week slate, they do benefit from advantageous matchups before the bye week. Home against the new-look Commanders is one of those must-win contests.

WEEK 10: Patriots (-3.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts — WIN (5-5)
It’ll be interesting to see whether star running back Jonathan Taylor is playing in Indianapolis at this time. Taylor, who was placed on the physically unable to perform list before the 53-man roster cutdown, is a prime trade candidate with the deadline two weeks prior to this matchup in Germany,

WEEK 11 — BYE

WEEK 12: Patriots at New York Giants (-1.5) — WIN (6-5)
Brian Daboll, a former Patriots assistant, surely will have the Giants ready for this one. But Belichick’s teams have historically been good coming off a bye week. Side note: The Patriots going .500 against the NFC East feels like best-case scenario.

WEEK 13: Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-2) — LOSS (6-6)
The Chargers have never lacked talent with Justin Herbert behind center, it’s been more about limiting their own mistakes. While Belichick surely offers the advantage over head coach Brandon Staley, we’re of the belief LA will be much-improved with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and Herbert’s weapons.

WEEK 14: Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) — WIN (7-6)
Pittsburgh will present a raucous atmosphere for this December contest on “Thursday Night Football.” But Belichick routinely has made things difficult on young quarterbacks, and second-year signal-caller Kenny Pickett will learn that the hard way.

WEEK 15: Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-6) — LOSS (7-7)
Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones, who held out during the preseason, almost certainly will be on the field for this “Monday Night Football” matchup. And mid-December is right about the time Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to start hitting their stride.

WEEK 16: Patriots at Denver Broncos (-3) — LOSS (7-8)
Traveling out to Denver on a short week after playing the Chiefs feels like a daunting task. Don’t count on a present from the Patriots as they take on Sean Payton’s team on “Sunday Night Football” on Christmas Eve.

WEEK 17: Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-6.5) — LOSS (7-9)
New England has gone into Buffalo late in the season and won, doing so in 2021. However, that’s the only time the Bills have lost to the Patriots at home in the last four years, the most lopsided being the playoff blowout less than a month later. Buffalo might even wrap up the division with this New Year’s Eve matinée.

WEEK 18: Patriots vs. New York Jets (-1) — WIN (8-9)
Let’s get nuts with predictions: Gang Green will already have their second wild-card spot confirmed while New England will need to win and receive some help. Ultimately, the team with more to play for emerges victorious.

FINAL RECORD: 8-9