Predicting Jets’ 2023 Record: Picking Every Game On Schedule

The AFC East for the longest time was the Patriots’ warmup for the NFL playoffs, but the tide has turned in recent seasons, and perhaps no one has done more catching up than the Jets.

That’s not to say you can pencil New York into a Super Bowl berth this February in Las Vegas. In fact, a playoff spot isn’t even guaranteed for Gang Green. But the Jets have been building something at Florham Park, and they obviously put the finishing touches on what they hope is a full rebuild by trading for four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers this offseason.

The Jets have one of the NFL’s best young defenses, game-changing skill position players on offense and a head coach whose competence hasn’t been completely questioned by the entire football world. That was enough to contend for a playoff spot a year ago, and now they hope the addition of Rodgers — the supposed final piece — will return them to glory.

As part of our AFC East and NFL preview, we’re going through the schedule for each team in the East to make our game-by-game predictions.

Here’s how we see the Jets’ slate playing out.

(Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.)

WEEK 1: Jets vs. Buffalo Bills (-1) — LOSS (0-1)
The joint will be jumping in the Meadowlands, but it’s reasonable to expect the Jets’ offense to be a little slow out of the gates. The Bills’ pass rush gets home and finds a way to get the Monday night win.

WEEK 2: Jets at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) — LOSS (0-2)
If the Jets are somehow 2-0 through two weeks, the hype train is going to be flying. But 0-2 feels more likely, and this is a tough spot for growing pains against arguably the NFL’s best defense.

WEEK 3: Jets (-5.5) vs. New England Patriots — WIN (1-2)
Bill Belichick will have something cooked up for Rodgers, but it’s the question marks about New England’s offense that loom large here. Rodgers does just enough to win them a low-scoring game, the type of contest they would have lost last season.

WEEK 4: Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) — LOSS (1-3)
What a gauntlet. It’s just much easier to trust the Chiefs in this spot than the Jets without having any real clue how it will look.

WEEK 5: Jets (-1) at Denver Broncos — WIN (2-3)
This is circled on the calendar after Sean Payton’s comments about Nathaniel Hackett. The Jets smother Denver because they’re the better team, but New York gets to use this as the turning point in its season.

Week 6: Jets vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-1) — WIN (3-3)
Rodgers is starting to get comfortable, and the Jets finally start building some momentum with their most impressive win of the season to this point against the defending NFC champions.

WEEK 7 — BYE

WEEK 8: Jets (-2.5) “at” New York Giants — WIN (4-3)
Fortunate scheduling to have a “road” game out of the bye in your home stadium. The Giants, meanwhile, come into this one at the end of a four-week stretch that sees games at Miami, Buffalo and then home against a tough division rival (Washington) before facing the rested Jets.

WEEK 9: Jets (-2.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers — WIN (5-3)
The Jets’ defense neutralizes MVP front-runner Justin Herbert with a statement game for that unit, while Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall run wild against a holey LA front.

WEEK 10: Jets (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders — WIN (6-3)
The winning streak reaches five in a game that is far more important than it looks. This is the sort of game that if the Jets lose, we look back in January as a winnable game that really would have helped.

WEEK 11: Jets at Buffalo (-4.5) — LOSS (6-4)
Things come crashing back to earth against the Bills, who find a way to avoid a look-ahead trap with a potential Super Bowl preview in Philly looming the week after. Josh Allen wins the shootout.

WEEK 12: Jets (-2.5) vs. Miami — WIN (7-4)
Divisional home win against an evenly matched team. Seems pretty simple, no?

WEEK 13: Jets (-7) vs. Atlanta Falcons — WIN (8-4)
The Falcons at best should be good not great, and they do not have an offense that matches up well against the New York defense.

WEEK 14: Jets (-8.5) vs. Houston Texans — WIN (9-4)
The Texans aren’t going to be good … but this otherwise would be the most obvious spot for a “LOL Jets” loss.

WEEK 15: Jets at Miami (-2.5) — LOSS (9-5)
Again, these teams seem so evenly matched that it’s hard to see them doing anything but splitting the season series.

WEEK 16: Jets (-6) vs. Washington Commanders — WIN (10-5)
Once again, the defense finds a way to prevail. If the Jets don’t fix the offensive line issues, though, this is going to be a lot closer than it might seem.

WEEK 17: Jets at Cleveland Browns — LOSS (10-6)
The offensive line levee finally breaks against Myles Garrett and company with Cleveland eking out a low-scoring game on a bitterly cold Thursday night in December by the lake.

WEEK 18: Jets (-1) at New England — LOSS (10-7)
Maybe it’s spoiler-y, or maybe the Patriots are in the process of playing themselves in. That being said, the Rodgers “thing” — the same thing that saw him lose to the Lions at home in Week 18 last year — shows again here.

FINAL RECORD: 10-7
Is this good enough to get into the playoffs? It’s certainly no guarantee, especially in the AFC. For now, we’ll say it is, and the Jets get a wild-card berth into the dance. They’re a tough out, but concerns about the pass protection ultimately look like too much to handle.