Predicting Bills’ 2023 Record: Picking Every Game On Schedule

The Bills are the kings of the AFC East, but they finished a few steps away from their ultimate goal the past three seasons.

Buffalo should be pinned as the favorite to win the division, but playoff success has not been there for Josh Allen and company with divisional-round exits in the past two seasons.

The Bills largely are running it back, which isn’t a bad thing for the second-most efficient offense in the league last season. However, there could be cracks for an older defense, especially with Von Miller starting the season off on the physically unable to perform list.

However, there are still plenty of reasons to be bullish on Buffalo.

As part of our AFC East and NFL preview, we’re going through the schedule for each team in the East to make our game-by-game predictions.

Here’s how we see the Bills’ slate playing out. (Odds courtesy of Westgate SuperBook.)

WEEK 1 Bills (-1) at New York Jets — WIN (1-0)
All eyes will be on Aaron Rodgers, but there likely will be growing pains to start the season for Gang Green. Buffalo’s pass rush should feast on New York’s offensive line, and while the Jets defense gave Allen fits last season, he still was enough to get the job done and will be again in Week 1.

WEEK 2 Bills (-9.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders — WIN (2-0)
Another team with a weak offensive line and combining that with an inept secondary, this matchup could get very ugly quickly.

WEEK 3 Bills (-5.5) at Washington Commanders — WIN (3-0)
Buffalo continues to roll through the easy stretch of its schedule before things start to get difficult.

WEEK 4 Bills (-5.5) vs. Miami Dolphins — WIN (4-0)
This matchup is in October, so weather might not be a huge factor like it was last season. But the Bills should take care of business at Highmark Stadium.

WEEK 5 Bills (-3) “vs.” Jacksonville Jaguars — WIN (5-0)
Buffalo heads to London, so this isn’t a true home game. It can be argued this is more of a home game for the Jaguars given how often they play in London. Jacksonville’s speedy playmakers give the Bills some trouble, but Allen should win the battle over Trevor Lawrence.

WEEK 6 Bills (-7) vs. New York Giants — LOSS (5-1)
The Bills oddly don’t get a bye after traveling to London. There’s some benefit with this being a “Sunday Night Football” matchup, but Daniel Jones and the Giants take advantage of a relatively quick turnaround, and Brian Daboll picks up a win over his former team.

WEEK 7 Bills (-4.5) at New England Patriots — WIN (6-1)
After taking their first loss of the season, the Bills rebound and get a win over the Patriots. Bill Belichick has found ways to disrupt Allen, but Buffalo always finds a counterpunch and continues its beatdown of New England.

WEEK 8 Bills (-11) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — WIN (7-1)
There are better things to do than watch this game on “Thursday Night Football.” Buffalo cruises and everyone moves on with their lives.

WEEK 9 Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) — LOSS (7-2)
Buffalo gets the benefit of a mini-bye week, but this older defense starts showing its age against a Ja’Marr Chase-Tee Higgins duo, and Cincinnati picks up another win over the Bills.

WEEK 10 Bills (-6.5) vs. Denver Broncos — WIN (8-2)
Who knows what kind of team Denver will be at this point in the season. Regardless, it doesn’t have enough weapons on either side of the ball to handle the Bills.

WEEK 11 Bills (-4.5) vs. Jets — WIN (9-2)
The Bills sneak by New York with two big matchups ahead.

WEEK 12 Bills at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) — LOSS (9-3)
This is a rough stretch for Buffalo and where the losses start piling up. Jalen Hurts has his way with the Bills defense, and people start questioning whether Buffalo is a true Super Bowl contender.

WEEK 13 — BYE

WEEK 14 Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) — LOSS (9-4)
The Bills tend to play well against the Chiefs in the regular season, but this is when things start to shift for Buffalo, which continues to slide and more questions around Allen’s ability to lead a contender grow.

WEEK 15 Bills (-4) vs. Dallas Cowboys — WIN (10-4)
Buffalo gets its bounce-back spot at home. The Cowboys defense will be a tough battle, and it will be fun to see the Diggs brothers go at it. This will go down to the wire, and there’s more reason to trust Sean McDermott in late-game situations than Mike McCarthy

WEEK 16 Bills (-1) at Los Angeles Chargers — LOSS (10-5)
Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore should have turned the Chargers into a high-octane offense and Justin Herbert into an MVP contender. Herbert wins the quarterback matchup over Allen, who continues his inconsistencies heading into the final games of the regular season.

WEEK 17 Bills (-6.5) vs. New England — WIN (11-5)
There’s nothing like going up against the Patriots at home to get you back on track. Allen continues his dominance over Belichick’s defense.

WEEK 18 Bills (PK) at Miami — LOSS (11-6)
This matchup is in January, but AFC East teams tend to struggle heading into South Beach. Buffalo’s struggles will continue as it loses four of its last six games of the season and pundits will ask if they’ll see the Bills of the first half of the season or from the second half of the campaign.

FINAL RECORD: 11-6