Could Points Be At Premium In Patriots-Dolphins ‘SNF’ Showdown?
Shootout? Not so fast
On paper, it appears “Sunday Night Football” could be the latest matchup of the irresistible force and immovable object when the Patriots host the Dolphins at Gillette Stadium.
It’s shaping up to be a must-see Week 2 matchup after what each team put forth in their openers. The Dolphins held on to beat the Los Angeles Chargers in a shootout, while the Patriots fell short despite a strong defensive effort against the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles.
Miami’s 36-point outburst in which Tua Tagovailoa threw for nearly 500 yards was the NFL’s best in Week 1. The Dolphins had the best offensive DVOA through the first week. The Patriots, meanwhile, largely held the high-powered Eagles offense — a unit that scored 34 points Thursday night — at bay. Philly scored 25 points in Week 1, but one of those touchdowns came on a pick-six, while another was the culmination of a 26-yard drive.
So, on one side, you have the Dolphins and the high-powered offense with the big names and the trendy genius coach opposite New England and Bill Belichick’s patented disciplined defense.
As of Friday morning, the total was settled at a consensus over/under of 45.5.
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The number is actually up to 46.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook where a little more than half of the bets and the handle are on the OVER, according to the sportsbook’s public splits on VSiN.com.
It’s certainly possible this Miami offense is generational, and not even Belichick and his Patriots could slow it down. However, there are two sides to this coin, and bettors should factor in what will happen when the Patriots have the ball.
Based solely on what we saw last week, it does appear a shootout is in store for Sunday night. The Patriots were able to protect Mac Jones against a ferocious Philly front and moved the ball pretty well in Bill O’Brien’s first game back as offensive coordinator. More importantly, the Dolphins defense in Vic Fangio’s first game on the headset was a trainwreck. Only the Chargers had a worse defensive DVOA.
However, just because that happened last week doesn’t mean it will happen again this week. The biggest issue on either side in this game might be the New England offensive line. Every single starter on the Patriots’ O-line had an injury designation Thursday, and the entire starting unit was either out or limited. Trent Brown and Sidy Sow don’t appear in line to play with concussions.
The Patriots don’t have stellar offensive line depth. They were able to get by in Week 1. But even considering the Dolphins’ defensive issues in their opener, it’s hard to believe O’Brien can MacGyver something to keep Jones upright again. And it’s not like the Dolphins don’t have talent up front with a front seven led by Christian Wilkins and Bradley Chubb.
And if you’re not completely sold on an offensive resurgence in Foxboro, who could blame you?
Ultimately, the Patriots are probably going to pin their chances to win this game on the defense. While Belichick has never beaten Tagovailoa, the Patriots have largely kept the Miami offense in check. New England will want to play this game in the low 20s because it has to know it can’t keep pace in a shootout with an offense like the Dolphins.
Typically, games play out that way when the Patriots are involved, as evidenced by the UNDER hitting in all but one of the last five New England games with a total of more than 45 points.
