Time To Pounce? Expected Loss Sees Patriots Win Total Decrease
The Patriots' win total sits at 6.5 entering Week 2
Not too many people expected the Patriots to win their Week 1 matchup with the Eagles, so why did the loss influence their betting perception?
New England entered the opener accounting for just 21% of the public’s money, which turned out to be the right play for bettors as Philadelphia covered the spread by a half point. It’s not like the Patriots looked bad, however, as they had multiple chances at capturing an outright win in the fourth quarter but failed to capitalize.
In short, New England actually looked solid in a couple phases of the game. Despite that, the Eagles win had a notable influence over how the books view the Patriots.
The early-season loss came with a change to the Patriots’ season win total, with BetMGM Sportsbook dropping the figure from 7.5 to 6.5. The current percentage of money placed on the Under sits at 88%, according to BetMGM data analyst John Ewing, though that accounts for bets made prior to the line change.
So, why is this change so notable? Well, it seems like sportsbooks are interested in giving out money.
The Patriots just aren’t a team that is going to lose double-digit games. If you find that hard to believe, just remember that you have to go back to Bill Belichick’s first year at the helm to find a season in which New England lost 10-plus games. Belichick himself has only surpassed that mark three times in his 29-year head coaching career.
It’s clear that BetMGM isn’t totally comfortable with that number, either, as the Over (-145) has much better odds of hitting than the Under (+125) in the eyes of the book. The Patriots defense looked like one ready to compete for a postseason spot in Week 1, while the offense showed marked improvement throughout the game.
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The biggest test the books will have all season is determining where New England stands after its Week 2 matchup with the Miami Dolphins. Would a win be enough to push that total back up to 7.5, or would it keep the Patriots on track at 6.5? How would a loss influence things, and could they be bold enough to drop Belichick and company to 5.5?
There’s only one certainty in this situation, and it’s that any strong opinion on Week 2 should influence the market. If you believe the Patriots win Sunday, getting your win total ticket in now would be best. If you like the Dolphins, wait it out until Monday morning.
