College Football Trends Make For Comfortable Bets In Week 9
It's time to capitalize on out familiarity
Welcome to The Slate, your home for college football picks at NESN.com. Here you can find our best bets to follow across (mostly) Saturdays in the fall. Let's jump into Week 9.
We jinxed it by using the word "comfortable," didn't we?
It's never a smart idea to get comfortable when you're betting, but the first eight weeks of the college football season have built some familiarity with a number of teams. We've placed a healthy amount of wagers on Colorado, Utah and Oregon, while the Big Ten and SEC have continued to follow similar trends to years past. It's about time we take advantage.
We've got six bets this week, with all odds coming from DraftKings Sportsbook. If you believe in logic, try to make some money with us.
Oklahoma (-9.5) at Kansas
(Saturday, 12 p.m. ET on FOX)
This number could move, as Kansas has been flirting with the idea of quarterback Jalon Daniels returning each of the last few weeks. That doesn't seem likely, though, so we're comfortable taking the points given it's such a large number.
Oklahoma has to be perfect, and they're caught in a rough stretch of games where they'll play Kansas, Oklahoma State and BYU in three of four weeks. They already almost blew one against UCF and could very well be looking past the Jayhawks with Bedlam coming up next weekend. Kansas backup Jason Bean has improved with each passing start, if he doesn't turn it over, the Sooners could be on upset watch.
The Pick: Kansas +9.5.
Georgia (-14.5) vs. Florida
(Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS)
"The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" is technically a rivalry game, but in recent years it has just become a place for one team to stomp the other one out.
The average margin of victory in the last six seasons is 21 points, with Georgia taking home the victory in five of those matchups. We know Brock Bowers is out and the Bulldogs haven't rolled anyone yet this season, but there's no way the Gators keep this close.
The Pick: Georgia -14.5
More College Football
Oregon (-6.5) at Utah
(Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX)
We've gotten burned by both of these teams in the past, but there are some college football rules that make this an easy bet.
Utah is coming off an emotional win over USC, squeaking by on the road. They'll be returning home to Salt Lake City, Utah, which would be a huge advantage at night, but this is an afternoon game. Oregon lost an emotional one two weeks ago to Washington, but bounced back to win a close game against Washington State at home last weekend. The Ducks will hit the road looking for vengeance, and they'll get it.
The Pick: Oregon -6.5
Louisville (-4.5) vs. Duke
(Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN)
This total is absurdly low and it's all because of Duke.
The Blue Devils have one of the nation's best defenses, while starting quarterback Riley Leonard likely won't play. That's good for a shift of 10-12 points on the total. We still think it goes over, though, as Louisville's offense has more than enough juice to hit the 28-point mark at home. Don't sleep on Duke backup Henry Belin IV, either. He'll put some points on the board as well, pushing this total into the 50s.
The Pick: Over 46
Ohio State (-14.5) at Wisconsin
(Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC)
Ohio State's defense has proven to be one of the best in the country. Wisconsin will be without its quarterback.
Don't overthink it.
The Pick: Under 45.5
UCLA (-17) vs. Colorado
(Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC)
We've made this point a few times before, but it's worth repeating. The Pac-12 won't die without putting together a few classic shootouts. USC and Colorado gave us one. Oregon and Washington gave us one. UCLA and Oregon State gave us one.
The Bruins and Buffaloes are next on the list.
The Pick: Over 62.5
Season Record: 21-18-0
