NFL Week 5 Picks: Breaking Down Cowboys-49ers; Are Patriots Done?

Last week, we saw a potential AFC Championship Game preview. Now, as Week 5 of the NFL gets set to start, football fans have their eyes on a potential NFC title game lookahead.

It's pretty obvious which game is the best on this week's slate. That distinction belongs to the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers having a divisional-round rematch on Sunday afternoon in California. The two clubs are largely the class of the NFC, each ranking in the top six of overall DVOA for the entire league, as Dallas comes in with the NFL's best point differential and San Fran sitting at No. 3.

Here's hoping we get something a little more competitive than last week's AFC East tilt between the Dolphins and Bills, a game that Buffalo led early and never looked back.

NESN.com's Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle tackled the 49ers-Cowboys showdown in their full NFL Week 5 picks down below, but they also highlighted their favorite plays on this week's episode of "The Spread," NESN's football picks podcast.

Don't forget to make that part of your podcast routine this week.

And before we get to their full Week 5 picks, here's how the guys did in Week 4.

Now, here are their Week 5 NFL against-the-spread picks.

THURSDAY, OCT. 5

Chicago Bears at (-6) Washington Commanders, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Commanders.
Ricky: Bears.

The line has moved up a point ahead of kickoff, and why not? The Bears are truly awful. Laying six points with Sam Howell and Ron Rivera is uncomfortable, but Chicago might have the worst offensive line in the NFL, which is bad news when you're tasked with slowing down that Washington front. --MC

SUNDAY, OCT. 8

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. (-5.5) Buffalo Bills, 9:30 a.m. (in London)
Mike: Jaguars.
Ricky: Jaguars.

Don't be afraid to fade Buffalo's offense here, much like Miami's offense last week. The Bills are traveling overseas for an early start, while the Jaguars are patiently waiting across the pond after facing the Falcons in London in Week 4. Jacksonville's defense, which ranks seventh in EPA/play and sixth in success rate on first/second downs, also could pose a challenge. --RD

No Matchup Found

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Houston Texans at (-1.5) Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Mike: Falcons.
Ricky: Falcons.

The Texans were super-impressive last week, absolutely rolling the Steelers. Desmond Ridder doesn't inspire much confidence under center for Atlanta. It feels like a lot of people will ride Houston here, but I need to see it more first. Teams have been able to run on the Texans, who have allowed at least 100 rushing yards in all four of their games, and that does play to the Falcons' strength. --MC

Carolina Panthers at (-10) Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.
Mike: Lions.
Ricky: Panthers.

The Panthers' offense looks putrid. It's simply bereft of talent. And the Lions might simply overpower them in their own den. But everyone is on Detroit right now, pushing the number to an uncomfortable level. --RD

(-2.5) Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Mike: Colts.
Ricky: Colts.

Feels like a potentially bad matchup for the Titans. The Colts are very good against the run, which obviously is the cornerstone of Tennessee's offense. If they can't get that going, it's going to be difficult to hold back the Colts' pass rush with a leaky offensive line. On the other side of the ball, this could be a breakout passing performance for Anthony Richardson against a defense that has struggled to slow down passing attacks. --MC

New York Giants at (-11) Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Mike: Giants.
Ricky: Dolphins.

The Giants have been dragged through the mud this week after their terrible showing at home against the Seahawks on "Monday Night Football." Normally, that'd present a solid betting opportunity, with the public perception not quite matching the reality. But the Giants really might be the worst team in football, going up against a Dolphins squad returning home with a sour taste in their mouths after an overwhelming loss in Buffalo. --RD

New Orleans Saints at (-1) New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Mike: Patriots.
Ricky: Patriots.

Last week was bad for the Patriots ... very bad. The Cowboys, however, are a wagon. In fact, New England's three losses have come against top-10 DVOA teams. The Saints aren't a top-10 team. The Patriots going home against Derek Carr and Dennis Allen should be enough to get right, and this is basically a pick 'em. If it doesn't go well, though, look out. --MC

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(-4) Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Ravens.
Ricky: Ravens.

Classic case of talent meets trends. The Ravens are the better team, no doubt. But the Steelers almost always thrive in this spot: an underdog at home in a divisional game coming off a loss. So, why Baltimore? Well, Pittsburgh's offense stinks and its defense is very overrated. A Steelers cover will require something fluky, and there are worse ideas than showing faith in Lamar Jackson. --RD

(-3) Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals.
Ricky: Bengals.

One team (the Bengals) has completely failed to meet expectations, while the other (the Cardinals) has been feistier than expected, going 3-1 against the spread. Cincy's offense has been awful, and the Cardinals' defense isn't good, so it theoretically could be a turnaround spot. But we've been saying that for a month, while Arizona's offense has been surprisingly efficient. --MC

(-4.5) Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Eagles.
Ricky: Rams.

Philadelphia holds a distinct advantage in the trenches. No surprise there. The Eagles' offensive line is elite. So, too, is their defensive front. But Sean McVay's creativity -- the Rams have used motion on 65% of their offensive plays this season, fourth-highest in the NFL -- could create enough matchup problems for Los Angeles to hang tough, if not win outright. --RD

New York Jets at (-1.5) Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Jets.
Ricky: Broncos.

It can't be overstated how bad the Denver defense has been. Giving up 28 points last week to Chicago might have been worse than getting lit up for 70 in Miami two weeks ago. Zach Wilson looked shockingly effective in the middle of the Kansas City game, and the Jets should look to build on that against a far worse defense. There's also a bit of a revenge-game factor here after Sean Payton ran his mouth about Nathaniel Hackett. --MC

(-4) Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Vikings.
Ricky: Chiefs.

Feels like the perfect opportunity for Kansas City's offense to flourish. Minnesota's defense loves to blitz, doing so at an NFL-high rate this season, which plays right into the hands of Patrick Mahomes. There also could be a motivational factor, with the Chiefs coming off an underwhelming showing against the Jets in Week 4, and a shock factor, with the Vikings going from facing the Panthers' terrible offense to one of the best quarterbacks ever. --RD

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Dallas Cowboys at (-3.5) San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: 49ers.
Ricky: 49ers.

Such a tough one to call. The two best units in this game are the San Francisco offense and Dallas defense. So, basically, can the Cowboys exploit the Niners' defense? It's going to be difficult. San Fran's only real defensive weakness on paper is its run defense, and you have to wonder how much of that is garbage time. This feels like it will play out similarly to the divisional round game last season the 49ers won by a touchdown. --MC

MONDAY, OCT. 9

Green Bay Packers at (-1) Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Packers.
Ricky: Packers.

This line swung in favor of the Raiders, likely an indication that Jimmy Garoppolo -- not rookie Aidan O'Connell -- will play this Sunday. Don't care. Las Vegas is a mess right now. And this is a chance to buy low on the Packers, a scrappy team capable of beating lackluster opponents. --RD