Houston Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is playing at an MVP level and the books have adjusted accordingly.
Before the season started, oddsmakers lined him at 200-1 to win the award with more than 40 names ahead of him. That's an implied probability of 0.5%.
Fast forward to Week 11, and he's now down to 20-1 with just five players ahead of him on FanDuel Sportsbook's odds board: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. That's pretty good company, and it means winning the award won't be easy.
Actually, it would be historic. Stroud would be the second rookie in history to win the award and the first since Jim Brown all the way back in 1957.
We're not here to necessarily compare the two, but there's no denying the immediate impact Stroud has had on his new team. The Ohio State alum has the Texans at 5-4 after DeMeco Ryans' club was projected to have the fewest wins this 2023 NFL season. Improbably, they're now part of the playoff conversation.
Total passing yards (incl. overtime)
C.J. Stroud
HOU - QBOddsmakers have been paying close attention to what's happening in Houston. BetMGM wasted no time adjusting their liability. BetMGM's Senior Trader Halvor Egeland said they were quick to move the line directly after Stroud led his team to a Week 10 win over the Bengals.
"(Stroud's MVP odds) were +5000 as late as the fourth quarter ... (Now) we've moved him into +2000," he said. "In my opinion, if this wasn't his rookie year, he'd be right up there with the likes of Tua and Lamar."
Not only have the Texans taken down big AFC opponents like the Cincinnati Bengals and Jacksonville Jaguars, but they have also kept the rest of their matchups fairly competitive; Houston is a top-10 team by point differential. The 22-year-old QB is the biggest reason for that.
The runaway Rookie of the Year candidate leads the league in passing yards per game and ranks top 10 in both QBR and expected points added while orchestrating a passing offense that is the second in the NFL by DVOA. He has also done an exceptional job protecting the ball, with just two interceptions on the season and the third-lowest interception-worthy pass percentage (2.5%).
It's not like Stroud has Ja'Marr Chase, A.J. Brown or Travis Kelce to throw to either. His main receivers are Nico Collins and rookie Tank Dell with Noah Brown emerging since returning from IR. Those players are talented, but the credit goes to the rookie signal-caller for elevating their play. This is true especially when you consider their weak run game that ranks in the bottom five according to DVOA. All of the pressure is on Stroud, and he's making it look easy. Unfortunately for him, carrying the team on his back might be an issue when it comes to voting.
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"Even though it isn't a team award, his chances of winning the award is directly correlated with the team's performance," Egeland added. "All of the players ahead of him are on better overall teams and most, if not all, will finish with a better record than the Texans."
So what exactly does he have to do to win this award? Is it even worth betting?
"In order for Stroud to win, his numbers will have to be so much better that it becomes undeniable," Egeland said. "As a rookie, that is just unprecedented. Having said that, what he's doing now is unprecedented."
If you're wondering when you should pull the trigger on betting the rookie to bring home the hardware, there's no better time than now.
"If you want a bet on him, I suggest doing it this week with the Cardinals coming up. If he wants to enter the 'undeniable stats' conversation, the Cardinals are a good team to do it against."
"C.J. Stroud for MVP" has a nice ring to it.
