Week 10 College Football Picks: Michigan Scandal Influences Selections
Let's gossip, shall we?
Welcome to The Slate, your home for college football picks at NESN.com. Here you can find our best bets to follow across (mostly) Saturdays in the fall. Let's attack Week 10.
This is a series in which we give betting advice, and we're going to get into that, but we first have to talk about the funniest thing happening in college football.
The University of Michigan football program is currently enthralled in a sign-stealing scandal that has more layers than an onion. It would take us roughly 550-600 pages to explain everything, so we'll give you the spark notes version of what's going on.
The NCAA is investigating Michigan for alleged "off-campus, in-person scouting of future opponents" which is also known as stealing signs. In response, Michigan suspended football staffer Connor Stalions, who ESPN reported as a "person of interest" in the investigation. Stalions, a retired U.S. Marine, has become the face of the entire operation, as his public Venmo account shows him paying people for tickets to non-Michigan games. He's also been seen on the Wolverines' sideline next to offensive and defensive coordinators, with video floating around of a person who is alleged to be him on the sideline of a Central Michigan game -- where he seems to be wearing a disguise.
It's a wacky situation that could end up seeing Stalions, head coach Jim Harbaugh and the entire program being disciplined. We're talking about a good old-fashioned NCAA punishment! There could also be nothing to come of it, but if one thing is for certain, it's that 127 FBS teams think this is hilarious.
OK, now take a deep breath because we've got six bets this week, with all odds coming from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texas (-4) vs. Kansas State
(Saturday, 12 p.m. ET on FOX)
The books are doing something weird with this one, because we think it's a trap for all of the wrong reasons.
It would be assumed by most that Texas should be a big favorite over Kansas State, but the Longhorns are rolling with a backup quarterback at the moment while the Wildcats might be playing their best ball in the last few seasons -- which includes a Big 12 Championship win last year. It feels right betting K-State considering they're plus-money, but something tells us this game will be close. It's too close to pick a side, so we'll rock with the Under considering we've got two good defenses and a backup QB.
The Pick: Under 49.5
Oklahoma (-6) @ Oklahoma State
(Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC)
This is a principle pick.
It's an absolute travesty that "Bedlam" is being played in the afternoon. These games are notorious for being... well, bedlam, and our lasting memories will be of high-scoring games that happened under the lights. In protest, we're going Under.
The Pick: Under 60.5
More College Football
Georgia (-15) vs. Missouri
(Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS)
It's the time of year when the only way to make money is by being uncomfortable, and there's no better place to start than by betting against Georgia.
The Bulldogs are without their best player, Brock Bowers, while Missouri continues to surprise many. This is the kind of game where Georgia continues to coast and wins but doesn't look all that impressive.
The Pick: Missouri +15
Michigan (-32.5) vs. Purdue
(Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC)
We talked about the Michigan stuff, and you might assume that means we're betting against the team that's no longer allowed to (allegedly) cheat.
Incorrect.
This is going to be one of the best atmospheres of the season, with an ugly Purdue team entering The Big House to get its doors blown off. We'd have taken this thing all the way up to 49.5.
The Pick: Michigan -32.5
Washington (-3) at USC
(Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC)
We have no idea how to bet USC. The overs almost always hit in the Pac-12.
This week, both things can't be true.
The Pick: Over 76.5
Alabama (-3) vs. LSU
(Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET on CBS)
It's true that we don't know how to bet USC, but it's also true that we haven't lost a single Alabama pick on the season. There's something about this Nick Saban team that we just get, and we're parlaying that into a potential big-money play.
LSU has looked great this season, despite suffering a pair of losses early on. If there's a world in which they make the SEC Championship game, they have to win Saturday.
The Pick: LSU moneyline
Season Record: 25-20-0
