MNF QB Props: Can Bengals Pivot Jake Browning Hurt the Jags?


Dec 4, 2023

In tonight’s NFL showdown between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Jacksonville Jaguars, the spotlight is on the quarterbacks. Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars’ established starter, has a passing prop set at 244.5 yards, reflecting his steady presence in the league. On the Bengals’ side, Jake Browning is projected at a more modest 216.5 yards, but the dynamics of the game may favor him.

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The Jaguars have shown vulnerability against the pass this season, which could be a significant factor in tonight’s game. Analyzing their performance, it’s evident that their defense struggles to contain opposing quarterbacks. This weakness could be a pivotal point for the Bengals, who recently increased their reliance on passing plays, as seen in their last game against the Steelers. Despite the challenges they faced, trailing throughout the game, their commitment to the passing game was notable.

Given that the Bengals are 9.5-point underdogs, it’s expected they will adopt a passing game script. This strategy implies a higher frequency of passing plays, likely in an effort to close the gap. The effectiveness of Joe Mixon has been adequate this season but not overwhelmingly so. If the Bengals find themselves compelled to rely more on their passing game, Browning’s role becomes crucial. While he may not be a breakout star, the game’s demands could see him accumulating significant yardage, potentially including some ‘garbage time’ scoring towards the end.

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The value tonight seems to lie with Browning. The Bengals will likely engage in a pass-heavy offense, exploiting the Jaguars’ defensive weaknesses. This approach might not only increase Browning’s stats but also offer the Bengals a strategic pathway to challenge the Jaguars effectively.

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Thumbnail photo via Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

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