Australian Open: Men’s and Women’s Bets to Win the Tourney


Jan 15, 2024

The Australian Open doesn’t get the respect it deserves. Tennis’ first major tournament of the year coincides with the end of the college football season and the start of NFL playoffs, with NBA and NHL regular seasons also acting as a distraction.

Still, year after year, the best and brightest stars in tennis bring their A-game as they try to capture the first Grand Slam tourney of the season.

We’re not passing up this opportunity to make our first tennis conviction plays of the year. 

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic is one of the few remnants left of the Golden Era of tennis. Roger Federer rode off into the sunset, and Rafael Nadal is a shell of his former self, leaving no real competitors to dethrone Djokovic. Federer and Nadal could barely get by the Serbian even at their best.

Djokovic claimed his record tenth Australian Open Championship last year, tying Nadal for most Grand Slam victories at the time. Since then Djokovic won the French Open and U.S. Open, becoming the men’s all-time winningest player in Grand Slam tournaments. 

As such, it’s not surprising to see him enter this year’s event as -105 chalk to win it all.

Gambling Strategies

Backing a chalky favorite in an eight-round tournament isn’t the sharpest gambling play. Inevitably, backing Djokovic to win each match throughout the tournament would yield a more promising return on investment. Some may find value in the roll-over method, but we’re taking a stance on another highly-ranked player to make a deep run at the Australian Open.

Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev enters the 2024 Australian Open as the third seed in the men’s bracket. He had an abrupt exit from the 2023 edition, losing in the third round to Sebastian Korda. However, the Russian has an exceptional track record of performing down under and is poised for a bounce-back effort this year.

Medvedev made a run to the Aussie Open Finals in 2021 and 2022, losing to Djokovic and Nadal, respectively. On the opposite side of the bracket from Djokovic this year, Medvdev’s biggest worry is getting past Carlos Alcaraz ahead of the final. 

Value Play

With tantalizing +1000 odds to win it all, we’re planting our flag on Medvedev to claim this year’s Australian Open title. Medvedev excels on hard courts and has a promising track record in Melbourne. Taking a stance on him with longer odds also reveals more hedging opportunities throughout the tournament. Medvedev is worth the investment at the Australian Open.

Women’s Draw

One of the most prominent discrepancies between the ATP and WTA is that no one has taken up Serena Williams’ mantle since she left. As such, the women’s draw is a more wide-open field, and that’s reflected in the betting market. Four players are priced at +500 or better, shifting the value markers further down the table. 

Qinwen Zheng

On that basis, we’re making a true value play on the 12th-seeded Qinwen Zheng. The 21-year-old emerged as a top threat toward the end of last season, and we’re expecting her to make a deep run at this year’s Australian Open. 

Appealing Betting Price

It’s worth making a play on Zheng at the current betting price of +3200. As we saw in last year’s U.S. Open tournament, Zheng excels on hard court surfaces. The Chinese National went on a run to the quarterfinal, improving her record to 8-4 in hard-court Grand Slam Tournaments.

Although she’ll have to make it past the likes of Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina sooner rather than later, we like Zheng’s chances of shaking up the women’s side of the tournament.

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Thumbnail photo via Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

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