Saturday is synonymous with hockey. It’s typically the busiest day of the week in the NHL, featuring a bevy of intriguing matchups. That leaves many in-roads for bettors looking for edges in the gambling market.
To help players get a winning edge, we’re highlighting some of our favorite plays from the SportsGrid NHL Model.
Seattle Kraken vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Flyers Moneyline (-105): 5-Star Rating
After a string of five straight losses, the Philadelphia Flyers have reversed course with two consecutive wins against two of the top teams in the NHL. They are looking to make it three straight as they welcome the Seattle Kraken to the Wells Fargo Center on Saturday night.
Even during their losing streak, the Flyers were churning out elite metrics. Since January 15, Philadelphia has outplayed six of nine opponents, culminating in a 53.2% expected goals-for rating, ninth-best in the NHL. Still, the playoff hopefuls are a disappointing 4-5-0 over that stretch, supporting the Flyers are due for some puck luck over their coming schedule.
The Kraken have been on a similar slide lately, going 3-5-1 over their past nine, but they don’t have metrics propping up future success. Seattle has been outplayed in five of nine, with their dominant efforts coming against some of the worst teams in the league.
Philadelphia is firing on all cylinders right now, while the Kraken are struggling to ice a competitive product. The Flyers should be priced well ahead of where they are, leaving a substantive advantage in backing the hosts in this one.
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Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Winnipeg Jets
Penguins Moneyline (+128): 5-Star Rating
The Pittsburgh Penguins will be skating on consecutive nights when they take on the Winnipeg Jets at the Canada Life Centre. Pittsburgh played its analytics correctly by reserving Tristan Jarry for the second night of the back-to-back, but they have a few other advantages in this inter-conference battle.
The Penguins have stepped up their defensive game of late. They’ve held five of their last seven opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances, coincidentally averaging 9.0 per game. Likewise, scoring opportunities have been in short supply. Opponents are averaging 21.5 scoring chances per game across that seven-game sample, with only one team exceeding 23.
Those stout defensive metrics align with diminished offensive productivity from Winnipeg. The Jets have eclipsed ten high-danger and 23 scoring chances just twice over their previous seven contests. On average, they’re attempting 8.1 and 20.6, respectively, indicating that the offensive well will start running dry.
Over their past five outings, the Jets have an awful 44.5% expected goals-for rating, somehow still managing to win three of those contests. They’ve outlasted their metrics, and the Pens can expedite the anticipated regression on Saturday night.
Arizona Coyotes vs. Nashville Predators
Predators Moneyline (-142): 5-Star Rating
It’s not the most glamorous of tonight’s matchups, but it does have one of the most prominent entry points for bettors. The Nashville Predators are short -142 favorites against the Arizona Coyotes tonight. But as our model suggests, that price should be substantially higher.
According to our algorithm, the Preds have a 74.2% chance of defeating the Coyotes. As expected, that edge is also reflected in the underlying analytics. Nashville has been sensational lately. The Predators have posted expected goals-for ratings above 60.0% in three of their past four, with a cumulative 59.4% benchmark. Conversely, the Yotes have been outplayed in two straight and three of their past five, yielding a below-average 42.8% expected goals-for rating.
These opposing waves collide in what’s expected to be a very one-sided contest. The Predators have asserted themselves as contenders in the Western Conference, as the Coyotes are struggling to remain relevant. This price should continue to swing towards Nashville as we approach puck drop, but it still won’t come close to approaching the implied probability it deserves. Preds walk in this Central Division battle.
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