That’s a seriously risky proposition for those teams in the top 10, and it should be enough of a reason for them to pass on Newton, Gabbert, Mallett and Ponder.
Obviously, it makes sense to take a quarterback in the top 10. Due to the finances involved and the potential to change the direction of a franchise, a quarterback can be worth the gamble. When teams fail to correctly evaluate that quarterback, though, they destroy any chance for immediate success.
Since 1990, 29 quarterbacks have been selected with a top-10 draft pick. Only three of them — Trent Dilfer, Peyton Manning and Eli Manning — have won a Super Bowl as a starter.
Teams have gotten better in the last three years, with Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford and Sam Bradford all looking like very good players. Stafford has had injury issues that have stunted his first two seasons, and Sanchez has his doubters, but he’s still been given the keys to the Jets’ franchise.
On the other side of that coin, though, are the epic busts — the guys like JaMarcus Russell, Matt Leinart, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer and Andre Ware. But since a bust can be defined in any number of ways, let’s try to get some statistical backing behind this.
Fifteen of those 29 quarterbacks never led their original team to the playoffs, and that’s a shocking rate of failure. Those numbers could swing a little bit since they account for Stafford and Bradford. But of the 14 quarterbacks who did make the playoffs with their initial team, Vince Young, Byron Leftwich, Michael Vick and even Dilfer weren’t exactly wild success stories. Dilfer, after all, was just 38-38 with one playoff appearance in six seasons with the Buccaneers before he won a Super Bowl during his only season with the Ravens.
So, by taking away Young, Leftwich, Vick and Dilfer — granted, that’s a more subjective stance than a statistically objective one — teams have only succeeded with 10 of the 29 quarterbacks who were taken in the top 10 in the last two decades. That’s a 65.5 percent failure rate.
Let’s get back to the 15 quarterbacks who never made it to the playoffs with their original team. Nine of them, including Bradford and Stafford, didn’t win more than seven total games with the team that drafted them, and none of them compiled a winning record with said team. In total, those 15 quarterbacks compiled a 157-331 record (.322 winning percentage) with their initial team.
Now, what are the consequences for picking the wrong quarterback? Let’s remove Bradford, Stafford and Alex Smith from the list of 15, because they’re still with their current teams, although Smith probably won’t return to San Francisco in 2011. Let’s also remove Russell and Leinart because the Raiders and Cardinals, respectively, have only had one year to move on from them.
So, we’ve now got a list of 10 quarterbacks — Jeff George (Colts, 1990-93), Ware (Lions, 1990-93), David Klingler (Bengals, 1992-95), Mirer (Seahawks, 1993-96), Heath Shuler (Redskins, 1994-96), Leaf (Chargers, 1998-2000), Smith (Bengals, 1999-2002), Couch (Browns, 1999-2003), Joey Harrington (Lions, 2002-05) and David Carr (Texans, 2002-06) — on the list of failures, and let’s look at how long it took each franchise to recover from the bad draft pick.
Ware was just 3-3 in four seasons with the Lions, but they actually made two playoff appearances during his tenure, as well as four in the six years after his departure. So, despite whiffing on Ware, the Lions overcame his inability to win the starting job.
From there, the Colts missed the playoffs five consecutive times after drafting George. The Bengals missed the playoffs 13 straight years after drafting Klingler, and that included the Smith era. The Seahawks missed the playoffs six straight times after drafting Mirer. The Redskins missed the playoffs five consecutive times after drafting Shuler. The Chargers missed six straight postseasons after drafting Leaf. The Browns used their first expansion pick on Couch, and they haven’t made the playoffs during their 12-year history since then. Likewise with Carr and the Texans, who have missed the postseason during all nine years of their existence. And the Lions have missed the playoffs in all nine years since selecting Harrington.
After removing Ware (due to the Lions’ success during his time) and Smith (for overlapping on Klingler’s fallout), those eight quarterbacks set their teams back by a total of 65 seasons, or an average of 8.1 straight seasons without a playoff appearance after the failed draft pick.
While Smith’s stats were thrown out, Klingler’s failure forced the Bengals to use another top-10 pick on a quarterback. After Smith’s failure, they took Carson Palmer with the No. 1 pick four seasons later. It shows how difficult it is for teams to scramble to recover after such a significant screwup.
It’s encouraging to see teams have a higher success rate with top-10 quarterbacks in 2008, but that trend could end in April. Too many teams in the top 10 — including the Panthers, Bills, Cardinals, 49ers, Titans and, quite possibly, the Bengals and Redskins — are desperate for a franchise quarterback.
There’s certainly a possibility that Newton, Gabbert, Mallett and Ponder could all work out, but their respective lists of question marks are a major concern. Combine that with the long list of failures since 1990, and the teams picking in the top 10 should be wary of the risk they’re about to take.
