Simple Line Changes Could Spark Penguins To Game 6 Win Vs. Lightning

by abournenesn

May 24, 2016

The Pittsburgh Penguins have won only one Stanley Cup despite having two of the best players in the world, centers Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, for the last decade.

Those two superstars must give a much-improved performance Tuesday night in Game 6 of their Eastern Conference final, or the Tampa Bay Lightning will eliminate the Penguins and kick off another frustrating summer in Pittsburgh.

Depth scoring was a huge issue for the Penguins in recent playoff failures, but that certainly hasn’t been the case this postseason.

The third line of Phil Kessel, Nick Bonino and Carl Hagelin has been on fire with its scoring production, speed and time spent in the attacking zone. The fourth line is winning puck battles below the goal line to maintain o-zone possession and also wearing down Lightning defensemen with an aggressive forecheck.

But Pittsburgh needs more than that to beat a Tampa Bay squad with a better blue line, superior goaltending and more consistent scoring from its top-six forwards.

Crosby didn’t score a single goal in the conference semifinals against the Washington Capitals, and while he has two goals in the first five games of the conference finals, none have come in the last two matchups — both Penguins losses. He’s also not shooting the puck enough — just two shots apiece in the last two games.

His line was pummeled in puck possession in Game 5 with 18 even-strength shots against despite starting 66.7 percent of his 5-on-5 shifts in the attacking zone.

Malkin has only one goal in the conference finals despite being on the ice for 32 unblocked shot attempts at 5-on-5 over the last two games.

Penguins head coach Mike Sullivan has to put Crosby and Malkin in the best positions to succeed. These guys are supremely talented, but you can’t do it all by yourself at this stage of the playoffs, especially when elite defensemen such as Anton Stralman and Victor Hedman hop over the boards whenever Crosby and Malkin come onto the ice.

Here’s a look at Pittsburgh’s most productive lines from a puck possession perspective, using the Corsi For percentage metric (via Corsica.ca).

Screen Shot 2016-05-24 at 9.48.18 AM

Malkin’s and Crosby’s best line involves Kunitz, but given Kunitz’s long history of chemistry and goal production with Crosby, he shouldn’t be on Malkin’s line.

Therefore, these are the best combinations to jump-start the top-six forwards.

Chris Kunitz–Sidney Crosby–Conor Sheary
Patric Hornqvist–Evgeni Malkin–Bryan Rust
Carl Hagelin–Nick Bonino–Phil Kessel
Tom Kuhnhackl–Matt Cullen–Eric Fehr

If Sullivan pushes the right buttons with his lines, the team’s offense should score more goals. Generating quality scoring chances hasn’t been an issue for the Penguins in the East finals.

Just look at their Game 4 shot chart from 5-on-5 play. A total of 11 shots from the “high-danger” area.

Screen Shot 2016-05-24 at 10.26.59 AM

The Penguins are dominating the Lightning in high-danger scoring chances in this series.

Screen Shot 2016-05-24 at 10.37.30 AM

Pittsburgh is built to win the Cup right now. They have paid huge money to veteran players, some of whom cost first-round draft picks and top prospects to acquire.

Depth is essential, but you need your best players to step up when the stakes are this high. Another poor game from Crosby, Malkin, Kris Letang and Marc-Andre Fleury — the “core four” — will result in the Penguins facing another summer of tough decisions.

Thumbnail photo via Don Wright/USA TODAY Sports Images

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