Another week, another de facto playoff game for the New England Patriots.
Here’s what we’ll be watching for in Sunday’s regular-season finale against the Miami Dolphins:
THE DETAILS
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Location: Gillette Stadium
TV: CBS
THE STAKES
The Patriots can clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC and a first-round playoff bye with a win, a Kansas City Chiefs loss or a tie by either team.
The Dolphins, led by first-year head coach and former Patriots defensive play-caller Brian Flores, were eliminated from postseason contention weeks ago. A loss would improve their position in the 2020 NFL Draft.
THE ODDS
Oddsmakers pegged the Patriots as 16-point home favorites entering the weekend. New England is 8-6-1 against the spread and 6-1 at home this season. Miami is 8-7 ATS and 1-6 on the road.
LAST WEEK
The Patriots scored their most impressive victory of the season last Saturday, prevailing 24-17 over a formidable and playoff-bound Buffalo Bills team to improve to 12-3 and clinch their 11th consecutive AFC East title.
The 4-11 Dolphins dispatched the one-win Cincinnati Bengals in surprisingly thrilling fashion, blowing a 23-point lead in the final seven minutes before rebounding to win 38-35 in overtime. Jason Sanders kicked a game-winning, 37-yard field goal as time expired to give Miami its fourth victory in its last eight games.
LAST MEETING
The Patriots laid the smackdown on the Dolphins in Week 2, cruising to a 43-0 victory at Hard Rock Stadium.
Stephon Gilmore and Jamie Collins both returned interceptions for touchdowns in that game, and Tom Brady completed four passes to Antonio Brown, including a 20-yard score. Those were the only passes Brown would catch during his brief stint as a Patriots receiver.
INJURY REPORT
Eight players are listed as questionable for the Patriots:
LB Ja’Whaun Bentley, Knee
DB Terrence Brooks, Groin
LB Shilique Calhoun, Illness
OT Marcus Cannon, Ankle
LB Jamie Collins, Shoulder
WR Julian Edelman, Knee/Shoulder
CB Jonathan Jones, Groin
CB Jason McCourty, Groin
With a first-round bye not yet secured, New England will not have the luxury of resting players this week. But it wouldn’t be surprising to see players like Edelman, Jones, McCourty and Cannon take a seat if the Patriots blow open this game.
The Dolphins have ruled out cornerback Jomal Wiltz and listed five players as questionable, including impressive rookie defensive tackle Christian Wilkins:
LB Vince Biegel, Elbow
DE Taco Charlton, Ankle
WR Allen Hurns, Ankle/Neck
DT Zach Sieler, Ankle/Thumb
DT Christian Wilkins, Ankle
Miami also placed running back Myles Gaskin on injured reserve earlier this week.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Stephon Gilmore, Patriots cornerback
Gilmore can put an exclamation point on his Defensive Player of the Year campaign this Sunday. He’ll likely be facing DeVante Parker, who’s enjoyed by far his best NFL season to date (64 catches, 1,065 yards, nine touchdowns) but was shut out by Gilmore in Week 2, finishing without a catch on seven targets in Miami’s blowout loss.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dolphins quarterback
The wily, bearded journeyman is coming off one of the best statistical performances of his pro career, throwing for 419 yards and four touchdowns in the Dolphins’ wacky win over the Bengals to earn AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. In an unexpected development that says more about Miami’s roster situation than Fitzpatrick’s ability, the 37-year-old also is one of just two NFL quarterbacks (along with presumptive league MVP Lamar Jackson) to lead his team in rushing yards this season.
With Kenyan Drake traded, Mark Walton cut and Kalen Ballage and Gaskin both on IR, rookie Patrick Laird and the newly signed Samaje Perine currently are the Dolphins’ top two options at running back.
Sony Michel, Patriots running back
Michel — and New England’s ground game as a whole — finally has found some consistency of late, rushing for 89 yards in a Week 14 win over the Bengals (4.7 per carry) and a season-high 96 yards last week against the Bills (4.6). It was around this time last season that the Patriots morphed into a power-running outfit, establishing a trend that continued straight through Super Bowl LIII.
This year’s Pats squad might not have the personnel to run the ball as effectively as 2018’s group did, but another strong showing on the ground this week would be a nice confidence-booster heading into the postseason. The Dolphins’ defense has been flimsy against the run this season, ranking 27th in yards allowed per game and 21st in yards allowed per carry.
