End of an era or the start of another Super Bowl run? We’ll find out Saturday night.
Here’s everything you need to know before the New England Patriots host the Tennessee Titans in the wild-card round of the 2019 NFL playoffs:
THE DETAILS
Time: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Gillette Stadium
TV: CBS
LAST WEEK
The 12-4 Patriots are playing on wild-card weekend for the first time since 2009 because they faltered against Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Miami Dolphins in Week 17, losing 27-24 at home. That loss dropped the Patriots to third in the AFC standings, allowing the Kansas City Chiefs to leapfrog them and nab the first-round bye.
The 9-7 Titans clinched the AFC’s second wild-card spot by beating a diminished Houston Texans squad 35-14 last Sunday.
THE ODDS
The Patriots are pegged as five-point home favorites. They’ve won nine straight at Gillette in the postseason, their last home playoff loss coming against the Baltimore Ravens in the 2012 AFC Championship Game.
Tennessee is 7-3 since Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota as its starting quarterback in Week 7. The Titans also defeated the Patriots 34-10 in the teams’ most recent meeting in November 2018.
New England has lost two of its last three home games — to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14 and to the Dolphins last week — after winning each of its previous 21.
Oddsmakers are historically low on the Patriots’ Super Bowl chances entering this postseason:
New England is 18-1 to win it all and was as long as 20-1 earlier in the week @CaesarsOnline.
Those are the longest odds New England has ever had entering the playoffs in the Belichick/Brady era.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 3, 2020
The last team to reach the Super Bowl without receiving a first-round bye was the 2012 Ravens.
THE STAKES
A Patriots win would set up a rematch with the No. 2 seed Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium next Sunday in the divisional round. If the Titans advance, they’d travel to Baltimore to face the top-seeded Ravens.
INJURY REPORT
The Patriots had perfect attendance at all three practices this week. They listed six players as questionable for Saturday:
WR Julian Edelman
CB Jonathan Jones
CB Jason McCourty
S Terrence Brooks
LB Jamie Collins
LB Ja’Whaun Bentley
McCourty and Brooks both missed the Miami game. The former has played just eight defensive snaps since Week 10.
The Titans will get starting cornerback Adoree’ Jackson back for this game after he missed the last four weeks with a foot injury. Tennessee has ruled out slot receiver Adam Humphries (ankle) while listing wideouts Khalif Raymond (concussion) and Cody Hollister (ankle) and safety Dane Cruikshank (illness) as questionable.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Tom Brady, Patriots quarterback
Which Brady will we see in this game? The one who sliced up the Buffalo Bills in Week 16 or the one who turned in arguably his worst performance of the season against the Dolphins? Tennessee ranks near the bottom of the league in passing defense (24th in yards allowed per game, 19th in yards allowed per attempt) and red-zone defense (31st), but Titans defensive coordinator Dean Pees — a Patriots alum — succeeded in stymying Brady when these teams met last season. The Pats will need a return to form from their star QB in what very well could be his final home game in Foxboro.
Ryan Tannehill, Titans quarterback
The NFL leader in passer rating and yards per attempt this season? That would be Tannehill, who’s been nothing short of fantastic in his first season as a Titan. Only the Baltimore Ravens and New Orleans Saints have averaged more points per game that Tennessee since Tannehill took over for Mariota in late October, and the former Dolphin has posted a passer rating above 130 in six of his last seven games. Tannehill also had some quality outings against New England during his time with Miami, surpassing 300 passing yards in five of his 11 career matchups with the Patriots.
Julian Edelman, Patriots wide receiver
The Dolphins’ defensive strategy last Sunday involved doubling Edelman on nearly every snap. It worked. The Patriots’ top wideout finished with just three catches on seven targets for 26 yards — two of which came on New England’s desperate final drive — and Brady struggled outside of one long completion to Phillip Dorsett and another to Elandon Roberts. A bye week would have benefited the banged-up Edelman, who has just 10 catches over his last three games and has spent nearly the entire season on the injury report with various ailments, but he said Thursday in a radio interview he feels “better than (he has) in the last few weeks.” He’ll likely see a lot of Titans slot corner Logan Ryan, the former Patriot who’s enjoying his best statistical season to date (113 tackles, four interceptions, 18 passes defended).
Derrick Henry, Titans running back
The NFL’s 2019 rushing champ, Henry is a massive runner (6-foot-3, 247 pounds) with deceptive quickness and vision. He’s averaged 149.3 rushing yards per game and 6.5 yards per carry over his last six games with 10 touchdowns during that span, and his presence has helped turn Tennessee’s play-action game into the NFL’s most dangerous. With teams often selling out to stop the burly back, Tannehill leads the league in passer rating (143.3), yards per attempt (13.5) and completion percentage (76.7) off play-action. The Titans are 11-0 all-time, including playoffs, when Henry rushes for 100-plus yards.
Stephon Gilmore, Patriots cornerback
Last week’s loss was one to forget for Gilmore, who allowed seven catches for 118 yards to Miami’s DeVante Parker. It was easily the worst game of the season for the Defensive Player of Year front-runner and the first time Gilmore truly struggled since Tennessee’s Corey Davis beat him six times for 98 yards last season. One bad day doesn’t erase the way Gilmore played through the first 15 games, though. He’s still the NFL’s premier cover man and should lead the charge in defending talented Titans rookie A.J. Brown, who led all first-year players in receiving yards (1,051) this season and has four 50-plus-yard touchdowns on his record.
Jonnu Smith, Titans tight end
Smith isn’t considered a top-tier tight end, but he’s been a menace with the ball in his hands this season, leading the NFL in Pro Football Focus’s elusive rating. (Brown is second.) Bill Belichick said the third-year pro is “probably the best in the league” at his position in compiling yards after the catch. Smith isn’t a high-volume pass-catcher (35 receptions, 439 yards, three touchdowns this season) but he’ll challenge a Patriots secondary that’s had some trouble covering tight ends of late.
