This might be obvious, but it’s rarely actually mentioned.
It's fairly well-established that Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback and former New England Patriot Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback of all time. But he’s also the best draft pick of the modern era.
We’ve already dug through drafts from 2020, the last five years and the last 10 years. Now, we’re looking at all draft classes since 2000, when Bill Belichick became head coach/general manager of the Patriots and Brady was drafted.
Here's a glossary of stats devised to determine how much value teams are extracting from the draft using Pro Football Focus' Approximate Value, or AV, metric:
Value Rate (VR): Team or player AV divided by total draft class AV
-- This is the percent of total value out of a draft class.
Value Rate+ (VR+): Value Rate where average=100
-- This is a simpler way of looking at Value Rate. Think of it like ERA+ or OPS+ if you're a baseball fan.
Value Vs. Expected rate (VvE%): How a player's Value Rate compares to the expected Value Rate from his draft slot
-- This is a gauge of how efficiently teams are using their draft picks and is weighted by draft slot.
AV is not a perfect stat. But it is the best, easiest and most uniform metric to use for a broad exercise like this one.
Brady has the highest weighted career AV in NFL history but also the best draft value rate and draft value vs. expectation rate since the AFL-NFL merger.
Drafted 199th overall, Brady was expected to produce a .16 percent value rate. Essentially, Brady was only supposed to constitute .16 percent of the entire 2020 draft's total value. Brady's instead makes up 3.93 percent of the 2000 NFL Draft's total approximate value. Brady is almost 25 times more valuable than the expected 199th pick in the NFL draft. That's an offense, defense, kicker, punter and long snapper combined vs. Brady.
Brady’s value vs. expected rate is more than twice as high as any other player the Patriots have drafted since 2000. Matt Light ranks second at 1.45 percent, followed by Julian Edelman at 1.40 percent and Logan Mankins at 1.34 percent.
Brady has a value rate+ of 998.16. So, Brady is nearly 10 times more valuable than the average NFL draft pick. Mankins has the next highest value rate+ among Patriots picks at 537.08 followed by Light at 511.68. Everyone else on the Patriots was half as valuable as Brady compared to their respective draft classes. Drew Brees has the next highest value rate+ among all NFL players since 2000 at 853.62. Brees made up 3.47 percent of the 2001 draft’s approximate value.
2000-2020
The Patriots ranked 17th in value rate and 22nd in value versus expected rate in 2020. They were 26th in value rate and 18th in value vs. expected rate over the last five years and 12th in value rate and 11th in value versus expected rate in the last 10 years.
Belichick’s first 11 drafts in New England were pretty incredible, because the Patriots rank fourth in value rate and ninth in value versus expected rate from 2000 to 2020. The Patriots were the NFL's second-best drafting team (behind the Packers) from 2000 to 2010.
| Rk | Team | VR | VR+ | Rk | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 3.83% | 122.34 | 1 | 0.06% |
| 2 | GB | 3.74% | 119.45 | 2 | 0.06% |
| 3 | SEA | 3.51% | 112.03 | 7 | 0.04% |
| 4 | NE | 3.50% | 111.46 | 9 | 0.04% |
| 5 | SF | 3.44% | 109.71 | 15 | 0.00% |
| 6 | CAR | 3.40% | 108.51 | 5 | 0.04% |
| 7 | CIN | 3.36% | 106.96 | 23 | -0.02% |
| 8 | LAC | 3.35% | 106.71 | 6 | 0.04% |
| 9 | PIT | 3.34% | 106.63 | 3 | 0.06% |
| 10 | IND | 3.23% | 103.13 | 8 | 0.04% |
| 11 | MIN | 3.17% | 101.19 | 22 | -0.01% |
| 12 | DAL | 3.16% | 101.01 | 10 | 0.03% |
| 12 | ARI | 3.16% | 100.67 | 19 | -0.01% |
| 14 | JAX | 3.14% | 100.02 | 26 | -0.03% |
| 15 | BUF | 3.13% | 99.84 | 20 | -0.01% |
| 16 | HOU | 3.10% | 99.1 | 21 | -0.01% |
| 18 | PHI | 3.09% | 98.65 | 18 | 0.00% |
| 18 | TEN | 3.09% | 98.65 | 25 | -0.03% |
| 16 | ATL | 3.10% | 98.18 | 11 | 0.02% |
| 20 | DEN | 3.05% | 97.4 | 24 | -0.02% |
| 21 | KC | 3.01% | 96.3 | 14 | 0.00% |
| 21 | MIA | 3.01% | 96.07 | 16 | 0.00% |
| 24 | NYG | 2.98% | 95.2 | 13 | 0.01% |
| 23 | CHI | 2.99% | 95.19 | 12 | 0.01% |
| 25 | NO | 2.95% | 94.22 | 4 | 0.04% |
| 26 | CLE | 2.93% | 93.6 | 32 | -0.09% |
| 27 | LAR | 2.92% | 93.12 | 29 | -0.06% |
| 27 | DET | 2.92% | 93.09 | 30 | -0.06% |
| 29 | NYJ | 2.86% | 91.14 | 17 | 0.00% |
| 30 | LV | 2.68% | 85.57 | 31 | -0.07% |
| 31 | TB | 2.57% | 82.16 | 28 | -0.04% |
| 31 | WFT | 2.57% | 82.06 | 27 | -0.04% |
Only the Ravens, Packers and Seahawks have drafted better than the Patriots since 2000.
I’d like to add that Ted Thompson, who died Thursday at 68 years old, worked in the Packers’ and Seahawks’ front offices during this time frame. He’s one of the greatest scouts and front-office executives of all-time.
2011-2020
We already dove deep into these years of the Patriots’ and the NFL’s draft history, so click the links below to learn more about the drafts from 2011 to 2020.
We’re not looking to add even more charts to this already over-charted post.
2010
This is Belichick’s best draft of all time based on value rate. The Patriots initially held the 22nd overall pick, moved down to 24 and picked up the 113th overall pick and then moved down again, packaging 24 and 119 for 27 and 90. The Patriots took Devin McCourty and added one of the most important defensive pieces of the dynasty.
The Patriots traded up from 44th overall, packaging the 190th overall pick, to take Rob Gronkowski, one of the best tight ends of all time, 42nd overall.
Linebacker Brandon Spikes, tight end Aaron Hernandez and center Ted Larsen, who has actually never played a snap for the Patriots in his long career, also wound up being above average picks for the Patriots.
| Rd | Pick | Pos | Player | VR | VR+ | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27 | DB | Devin McCourty | 1.44% | 366.74 | 0.61% |
| 2 | 42 | TE | Rob Gronkowski | 1.64% | 418.31 | 0.97% |
| 2 | 53 | LB | Jermaine Cunningham | 0.18% | 45.84 | -0.41% |
| 2 | 62 | LB | Brandon Spikes | 0.52% | 131.80 | -0.04% |
| 3 | 90 | WR | Taylor Price | 0.02% | 5.73 | -0.39% |
| 4 | 113 | TE | Aaron Hernandez | 0.49% | 126.07 | 0.17% |
| 5 | 150 | P | Zoltan Mesko | 0.13% | 34.38 | -0.11% |
| 6 | 205 | C | Ted Larsen | 0.79% | 200.56 | 0.64% |
| 7 | 208 | T | Thomas Welch | 0.04% | 11.46 | -0.10% |
| 7 | 247 | DE | Brandon Deaderick | 0.18% | 45.84 | 0.10% |
| 7 | 248 | DT | Kade Weston | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.08% |
| 7 | 250 | QB | Zac Robinson | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.08% |
The Patriots certainly had some misses. That’s illustrated in Belichick’s lower value versus expectation rate. Still, they get an A.
The Patriots also found defensive tackle Kyle Love as an undrafted free agent.
| Rk | Team | VR | VR+ | GM | Rk | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 6.04% | 193.44 | Kevin Colbert | 2 | 0.26% |
| 2 | SEA | 5.82% | 186.25 | John Schneider | 3 | 0.20% |
| 3 | NE | 5.44% | 174.02 | Bill Belichick | 7 | 0.11% |
| 4 | DEN | 4.92% | 157.48 | Brian Xanders | 6 | 0.11% |
| 5 | GB | 4.63% | 148.13 | Ted Thompson | 1 | 0.27% |
| 6 | SF | 4.47% | 143.10 | Trent Baalke | 5 | 0.11% |
| 7 | CIN | 4.38% | 140.22 | Mike Brown | 8 | 0.10% |
| 8 | PHI | 3.89% | 124.40 | Howie Roseman | 18 | -0.04% |
| 9 | MIA | 3.80% | 121.53 | Jeff Ireland | 10 | 0.10% |
| 10 | CLE | 3.39% | 108.58 | Tom Heckert | 22 | -0.06% |
| 10 | LAR | 3.39% | 108.58 | Billy Devaney | 25 | -0.11% |
| 12 | DAL | 3.28% | 104.99 | Jerry Jones | 4 | 0.18% |
| 12 | DET | 3.28% | 104.99 | Martin Mayhew | 12 | 0.04% |
| 14 | NYG | 3.21% | 102.83 | Jerry Reese | 14 | 0.03% |
| 15 | KC | 3.06% | 97.80 | Scott Pioli | 27 | -0.13% |
| 16 | LV | 2.99% | 95.64 | Al Davis | 24 | -0.07% |
| 17 | NO | 2.92% | 93.48 | Mickey Loomis | 9 | 0.10% |
| 18 | HOU | 2.90% | 92.76 | Rick Smith | 20 | -0.05% |
| 19 | TB | 2.79% | 89.17 | Mark Dominik | 28 | -0.15% |
| 20 | ARI | 2.61% | 83.42 | Rod Graves | 16 | -0.01% |
| 21 | IND | 2.54% | 81.26 | Chris Polian | 13 | 0.04% |
| 22 | CAR | 2.40% | 76.94 | Marty Hurney | 17 | -0.03% |
| 23 | WFT | 2.36% | 75.51 | Mike Shanahan | 11 | 0.04% |
| 24 | ATL | 2.27% | 72.63 | Thomas Dimitroff | 23 | -0.07% |
| 25 | LAC | 2.16% | 69.03 | A.J. Smith | 19 | -0.04% |
| 26 | MIN | 2.11% | 67.60 | Rick Spielman | 21 | -0.06% |
| 27 | TEN | 2.07% | 66.16 | Mike Reinfeldt | 26 | -0.11% |
| 28 | BUF | 1.55% | 49.62 | Buddy Nix | 31 | -0.22% |
| 29 | BAL | 1.53% | 48.90 | Ozzie Newsome | 29 | -0.17% |
| 30 | CHI | 1.51% | 48.18 | Jerry Angelo | 15 | 0.02% |
| 31 | JAX | 1.35% | 43.15 | Gene Smith | 30 | -0.18% |
| 32 | NYJ | 0.94% | 30.20 | Mike Tannenbaum | 32 | -0.25% |
2009
The Patriots traded out of the first round of the 2009 NFL Draft. They initially held the 23rd pick and moved down to 26 and picked up the 162nd pick. Then they moved Nos. 26 and 162 for the 41st, 73rd and 83rd picks. The Patriots wound up passing on Michael Oher and Clay Matthews in the process and wound up with Darius Butler, Brandon Tate and the 73rd overall pick. Sounds bad, right?
The Patriots flipped the 73rd overall pick for a 2010 second-round pick and the 232nd pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. The Patriots wound up trading that second-round pick to move up for Gronkowski. They used the 232nd overall pick on Edelman.
So, would you rather have Oher and Travis Goethel or Butler, Tate, Gronkowski and Edelman? Or would you rather have Matthews, Jamon Meredith and Goethel or Butler, Tate, Gronkowski and Edelman? Pretty easy answer.
The Patriots picked up the 34th overall pick by trading quarterback Matt Cassel and linebacker Mike Vrabel to the Kansas City Chiefs. Chung wasn’t amazing in his first tenure with the Patriots as he played out of position at free safety. He returned after a year with the Philadelphia Eagles and was one of the most important pieces on three Super Bowl winning defenses.
| Rd | Pick | Pos | Player | VR | VR+ | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 34 | DB | Patrick Chung | 0.93% | 239.19 | 0.19% |
| 2 | 40 | DT | Ron Brace | 0.15% | 38.79 | -0.53% |
| 2 | 41 | DB | Darius Butler | 0.56% | 142.22 | -0.12% |
| 2 | 58 | T | Sebastian Vollmer | 1.44% | 368.48 | 0.87% |
| 3 | 83 | WR | Brandon Tate | 0.40% | 103.43 | -0.04% |
| 3 | 97 | LB | Tyrone McKenzie | 0.03% | 6.46 | -0.36% |
| 4 | 123 | G | Rich Ohrnberger | 0.18% | 45.25 | -0.12% |
| 5 | 170 | T | George Bussey | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.21% |
| 6 | 198 | C | Jake Ingram | 0.03% | 6.46 | -0.13% |
| 6 | 207 | DT | Myron Pryor | 0.08% | 19.39 | -0.07% |
| 7 | 232 | WR | Julian Edelman | 1.52% | 387.88 | 1.40% |
| 7 | 234 | DT | Darryl Richard | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.11% |
This is another draft where Belichick took a ton of shots, so his value versus expected rate isn’t high, but his value rate is third in the NFL.
The Patriots extracted a ton of value out of this class, and Edelman is one of the top steals of the last 21 years. This is another A.
| Rk | Team | VR | VR+ | GM | Rk | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 5.61% | 179.39 | Martin Mayhew | 14 | 0.06% |
| 2 | GB | 5.48% | 175.35 | Ted Thompson | 1 | 0.28% |
| 3 | NE | 5.30% | 169.70 | Bill Belichick | 13 | 0.06% |
| 4 | CIN | 5.13% | 164.04 | Mike Brown | 7 | 0.11% |
| 5 | HOU | 4.87% | 155.96 | Rick Smith | 4 | 0.20% |
| 6 | JAX | 4.82% | 154.34 | Gene Smith | 9 | 0.10% |
| 7 | PHI | 4.72% | 151.11 | Tom Heckert | 2 | 0.26% |
| 8 | PIT | 4.60% | 147.07 | Kevin Colbert | 5 | 0.19% |
| 9 | TEN | 4.27% | 136.57 | Mike Reinfeldt | 12 | 0.08% |
| 10 | BUF | 3.89% | 124.44 | Russ Brandon | 18 | -0.02% |
| 11 | MIA | 3.51% | 112.32 | Jeff Ireland | 17 | -0.01% |
| 12 | MIN | 3.36% | 107.47 | Rick Spielman | 3 | 0.22% |
| 13 | BAL | 3.16% | 101.01 | Ozzie Newsome | 10 | 0.10% |
| 14 | CLE | 3.01% | 96.16 | George Kokinis | 24 | -0.07% |
| 15 | IND | 2.78% | 88.89 | Bill Polian | 16 | 0.00% |
| 16 | LV | 2.75% | 88.08 | Al Davis | 22 | -0.06% |
| 17 | ATL | 2.70% | 86.46 | Thomas Dimitroff | 19 | -0.03% |
| 18 | LAR | 2.60% | 83.23 | Billy Devaney | 26 | -0.12% |
| 19 | TB | 2.47% | 79.19 | Mark Dominik | 15 | 0.04% |
| 20 | NYJ | 2.42% | 77.58 | Mike Tannenbaum | 6 | 0.18% |
| 21 | LAC | 2.40% | 76.77 | A.J. Smith | 21 | -0.06% |
| 21 | SEA | 2.40% | 76.77 | Tim Ruskell | 20 | -0.04% |
| 23 | NO | 2.27% | 72.73 | Mickey Loomis | 8 | 0.10% |
| 24 | NYG | 2.20% | 70.30 | Jerry Reese | 30 | -0.16% |
| 25 | SF | 2.17% | 69.49 | Scot McCloughan | 11 | 0.10% |
| 26 | DEN | 2.12% | 67.88 | Brian Xanders | 32 | -0.30% |
| 27 | CHI | 1.84% | 58.99 | Jerry Angelo | 23 | -0.06% |
| 28 | ARI | 1.77% | 56.57 | Rod Graves | 28 | -0.14% |
| 29 | KC | 1.74% | 55.76 | Scott Pioli | 29 | -0.14% |
| 30 | CAR | 1.67% | 53.33 | Marty Hurney | 27 | -0.13% |
| 31 | WFT | 1.54% | 49.29 | Vinny Cerrato | 25 | -0.10% |
| 32 | DAL | 0.43% | 13.74 | Jerry Jones | 31 | -0.25% |
2008
A problem with AV is that it doesn’t give enough credit to special teams players like Slater. This class does not rate well for the Patriots when it should at least rate higher because of Slater. AV isn’t perfect, but it’s the best stat for this type of exercise.
The Patriots initially had two first-round picks but forfeited their own as part of their punishment for Spygate. The other pick came from the 49ers from when the Patriots traded out of the first round of the 2007 NFL Draft. They got a 2008 first-round pick and the 110th overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft. The Patriots flipped the 2007 110th pick for wide receiver Randy Moss. The 49ers’ first-round pick wound up being 7th overall. The Patriots traded down from No. 7 to No. 10 and took linebacker Jerod Mayo.
| Rd | Pick | Pos | Player | VR | VR+ | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | LB | Jerod Mayo | 1.23% | 308.77 | 0.15% |
| 2 | 62 | DB | Terrence Wheatley | 0.02% | 5.94 | -0.53% |
| 3 | 78 | LB | Shawn Crable | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.48% |
| 3 | 94 | QB | Kevin O'Connell | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.39% |
| 4 | 129 | DB | Jonathan Wilhite | 0.24% | 59.38 | -0.05% |
| 5 | 153 | WR | Matthew Slater | 0.09% | 23.75 | -0.15% |
| 6 | 197 | LB | Bo Ruud | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.16% |
This is one of Belichick’s weaker classes of the decade, however.
The Patriots get a C+. They hit on Mayo and got a steal in Slater but otherwise missed big on Wheatley, Crable and O’Connell.
They did also find running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis, linebacker Gary Guyton and offensive lineman Ryan Wendell as undrafted free agents.
| Rk | Team | VR | VR+ | GM | Rk | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 7.66% | 245.05 | Thomas Dimitroff | 2 | 0.23% |
| 2 | KC | 6.43% | 205.84 | Carl Peterson | 11 | 0.07% |
| 3 | GB | 5.44% | 174.18 | Ted Thompson | 3 | 0.22% |
| 4 | PHI | 4.74% | 151.56 | Tom Heckert | 4 | 0.15% |
| 5 | ARI | 4.71% | 150.80 | Rod Graves | 1 | 0.26% |
| 6 | BAL | 4.62% | 147.79 | Ozzie Newsome | 14 | 0.04% |
| 7 | CAR | 4.34% | 138.74 | Marty Hurney | 12 | 0.06% |
| 8 | TEN | 4.22% | 134.97 | Mike Reinfeldt | 9 | 0.10% |
| 9 | DEN | 4.05% | 129.69 | Jim Goodman | 10 | 0.08% |
| 10 | DAL | 3.93% | 125.92 | Jerry Jones | 5 | 0.15% |
| 11 | CHI | 3.75% | 119.89 | Jerry Angelo | 16 | -0.01% |
| 12 | MIA | 3.65% | 116.87 | Jeff Ireland | 22 | -0.09% |
| 13 | TB | 3.49% | 111.59 | Bruce Allen | 8 | 0.10% |
| 14 | IND | 3.39% | 108.58 | Bill Polian | 6 | 0.13% |
| 15 | DET | 3.37% | 107.82 | Matt Millen | 20 | -0.05% |
| 16 | HOU | 3.04% | 97.27 | Rick Smith | 13 | 0.06% |
| 17 | LAR | 2.99% | 95.76 | Jay Zygmunt | 21 | -0.08% |
| 18 | NO | 2.50% | 79.92 | Mickey Loomis | 17 | -0.02% |
| 19 | CIN | 2.45% | 78.42 | Mike Brown | 24 | -0.13% |
| 20 | SEA | 2.26% | 72.38 | Tim Ruskell | 18 | -0.03% |
| 21 | BUF | 2.24% | 71.63 | Russ Brandon | 25 | -0.14% |
| 22 | MIN | 2.14% | 68.61 | Rick Spielman | 7 | 0.12% |
| 23 | LV | 2.00% | 64.09 | Al Davis | 19 | -0.04% |
| 24 | SF | 1.79% | 57.30 | Scot McCloughan | 26 | -0.15% |
| 25 | NYJ | 1.77% | 56.55 | Mike Tannenbaum | 28 | -0.18% |
| 25 | WFT | 1.77% | 56.55 | Vinny Cerrato | 27 | -0.17% |
| 27 | NYG | 1.70% | 54.29 | Jerry Reese | 23 | -0.12% |
| 28 | NE | 1.58% | 50.52 | Bill Belichick | 31 | -0.23% |
| 29 | CLE | 1.20% | 38.45 | Phil Savage | 15 | 0.01% |
| 29 | PIT | 1.20% | 38.45 | Kevin Colbert | 30 | -0.22% |
| 31 | JAX | 0.80% | 25.64 | James Harris | 32 | -0.30% |
| 32 | LAC | 0.78% | 24.88 | A.J. Smith | 29 | -0.22% |
2007
As previously mentioned, the Patriots traded for wide receiver Randy Moss. They also dealt second- and seventh-round picks for wide receiver Wes Welker.
The Patriots entered this draft with two first-round picks. They traded their own to the 49ers and picked up the other when they traded wide receiver Deion Branch to the Seattle Seahawks in 2006. New England took safety Brandon Meriweather, and he was their only worthwhile pick in the class.
| Rd | Pick | Pos | Player | VR | VR+ | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | DB | Brandon Meriweather | 0.79% | 201.36 | -0.07% |
| 4 | 127 | DT | Kareem Brown | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.29% |
| 5 | 171 | T | Clint Oldenburg | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.21% |
| 6 | 180 | LB | Justin Rogers | 0.09% | 23.62 | -0.06% |
| 6 | 202 | DB | Mike Richardson | 0.05% | 12.20 | -0.11% |
| 6 | 208 | RB | Justise Hairston | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.14% |
| 6 | 209 | T | Corey Hilliard | 0.22% | 54.92 | 0.07% |
| 7 | 211 | LB | Oscar Lua | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.14% |
| 7 | 247 | G | Mike Elgin | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.08% |
The Patriots’ draft picks get a D. Throw in the trades for Moss, Welker and Mayo, and this gets an A.
| Rk | Team | VR | VR+ | GM | Rk | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 7.04% | 225.13 | Scot McCloughan | 2 | 0.32% |
| 2 | CAR | 4.67% | 149.32 | Marty Hurney | 5 | 0.16% |
| 3 | MIN | 4.64% | 148.55 | Rick Spielman | 14 | 0.02% |
| 4 | PIT | 4.47% | 143.19 | Kevin Colbert | 6 | 0.15% |
| 5 | NYJ | 4.33% | 138.60 | Mike Tannenbaum | 1 | 0.60% |
| 6 | JAX | 4.24% | 135.53 | James Harris | 12 | 0.05% |
| 7 | ATL | 4.21% | 134.77 | Rich McKay | 18 | -0.01% |
| 8 | BAL | 4.19% | 134.00 | Ozzie Newsome | 4 | 0.22% |
| 9 | MIA | 4.00% | 127.88 | Randy Mueller | 15 | 0.01% |
| 10 | BUF | 3.92% | 125.58 | Marv Levy | 7 | 0.14% |
| 11 | GB | 3.90% | 124.81 | Ted Thompson | 13 | 0.02% |
| 12 | CLE | 3.35% | 107.20 | Phil Savage | 17 | 0.00% |
| 13 | NYG | 3.25% | 104.14 | Jerry Reese | 3 | 0.25% |
| 14 | DAL | 3.23% | 103.37 | Jerry Jones | 10 | 0.07% |
| 15 | LAC | 3.21% | 102.61 | A.J. Smith | 8 | 0.12% |
| 15 | NO | 3.21% | 102.61 | Mickey Loomis | 11 | 0.06% |
| 17 | DET | 3.16% | 101.08 | Matt Millen | 23 | -0.10% |
| 18 | CHI | 3.11% | 99.55 | Jerry Angelo | 16 | 0.01% |
| 19 | SEA | 2.97% | 94.95 | Tim Ruskell | 9 | 0.09% |
| 20 | ARI | 2.68% | 85.76 | Rod Graves | 20 | -0.03% |
| 21 | TEN | 2.63% | 84.23 | Mike Reinfeldt | 19 | -0.03% |
| 22 | LV | 2.49% | 79.64 | Al Davis | 32 | -0.23% |
| 23 | TB | 2.46% | 78.87 | Bruce Allen | 29 | -0.17% |
| 24 | HOU | 2.13% | 68.15 | Rick Smith | 22 | -0.08% |
| 25 | CIN | 2.01% | 64.32 | Mike Brown | 21 | -0.07% |
| 26 | IND | 1.91% | 61.26 | Bill Polian | 27 | -0.15% |
| 27 | KC | 1.84% | 58.96 | Carl Peterson | 25 | -0.12% |
| 28 | PHI | 1.70% | 54.37 | Tom Heckert | 26 | -0.14% |
| 29 | DEN | 1.56% | 49.77 | Ted Sundquist | 31 | -0.20% |
| 30 | LAR | 1.29% | 41.35 | Jay Zygmunt | 30 | -0.20% |
| 31 | NE | 1.10% | 35.22 | Bill Belichick | 24 | -0.11% |
| 31 | WFT | 1.10% | 35.22 | Vinny Cerrato | 28 | -0.16% |
2006
This was the first of three straight drafts that saw the Patriots draft poorly. The Patriots actually traded up to take Chad Jackson in the second round. One of the picks they traded, 52nd overall, sent Greg Jennings to the Packers. Whoops.
Patriots fans might have been wondering if Belichick could still draft by the time 2009 came around. He turned it around in a big way. That should give some hope to Patriots fans who think Belichick is struggling to pick up talent in the draft (which he has) in recent years.
| Rd | Pick | Pos | Player | VR | VR+ | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | RB | Laurence Maroney | 0.51% | 130.98 | -0.39% |
| 2 | 36 | WR | Chad Jackson | 0.04% | 10.08 | -0.69% |
| 3 | 86 | TE | David Thomas | 0.18% | 45.34 | -0.25% |
| 4 | 106 | FB | Garrett Mills | 0.02% | 5.04 | -0.33% |
| 4 | 118 | K | Stephen Gostkowski | 0.73% | 186.39 | 0.42% |
| 5 | 136 | T | Ryan O'Callaghan | 0.24% | 60.45 | -0.03% |
| 6 | 191 | DE | Jeremy Mincey | 0.59% | 151.13 | 0.42% |
| 6 | 205 | G | Dan Stevenson | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.15% |
| 6 | 206 | DT | Le Kevin Smith | 0.10% | 25.19 | -0.05% |
| 7 | 229 | DB | Willie Andrews | 0.06% | 15.11 | -0.06% |
The Patriots’ best pick was a kicker. Their second-best pick was Mincey, who never even played for the Patriots but went on to have a long career elsewhere. This gets a D+.
| Rk | Team | VR | VR+ | GM | Rk | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 7.78% | 249.07 | Mickey Loomis | 1 | 0.58% |
| 2 | DEN | 6.08% | 194.71 | Ted Sundquist | 2 | 0.46% |
| 3 | CIN | 5.53% | 177.01 | Mike Brown | 3 | 0.34% |
| 4 | GB | 5.35% | 171.32 | Ted Thompson | 11 | 0.03% |
| 5 | HOU | 4.90% | 156.78 | Charley Casserly | 7 | 0.11% |
| 6 | BAL | 4.78% | 152.98 | Ozzie Newsome | 6 | 0.12% |
| 7 | IND | 4.56% | 146.03 | Bill Polian | 4 | 0.31% |
| 8 | NYJ | 4.09% | 130.86 | Mike Tannenbaum | 20 | -0.07% |
| 9 | LAC | 3.85% | 123.27 | A.J. Smith | 5 | 0.13% |
| 10 | SF | 3.77% | 120.74 | Scot McCloughan | 13 | 0.02% |
| 11 | BUF | 3.65% | 116.95 | Marv Levy | 16 | -0.01% |
| 12 | CAR | 3.48% | 111.26 | Marty Hurney | 9 | 0.06% |
| 13 | MIN | 3.42% | 109.36 | Fran Foley | 12 | 0.02% |
| 14 | PHI | 3.32% | 106.20 | Tom Heckert | 17 | -0.03% |
| 15 | TEN | 3.16% | 101.15 | Floyd Reese | 18 | -0.04% |
| 16 | CLE | 2.67% | 85.34 | Phil Savage | 26 | -0.13% |
| 16 | KC | 2.67% | 85.34 | Carl Peterson | 15 | 0.00% |
| 18 | JAX | 2.59% | 82.81 | James Harris | 10 | 0.05% |
| 19 | NE | 2.47% | 79.02 | Bill Belichick | 25 | -0.11% |
| 20 | LV | 2.39% | 76.49 | Al Davis | 23 | -0.10% |
| 21 | CHI | 2.33% | 74.60 | Jerry Angelo | 19 | -0.04% |
| 22 | NYG | 2.25% | 72.07 | Ernie Accorsi | 21 | -0.07% |
| 23 | SEA | 2.11% | 67.64 | Tim Ruskell | 14 | 0.02% |
| 24 | PIT | 2.07% | 66.38 | Kevin Colbert | 22 | -0.09% |
| 25 | WFT | 1.96% | 62.58 | Vinny Cerrato | 8 | 0.07% |
| 26 | TB | 1.90% | 60.69 | Bruce Allen | 24 | -0.11% |
| 27 | DAL | 1.70% | 54.37 | Jerry Jones | 27 | -0.16% |
| 28 | ARI | 1.50% | 48.04 | Rod Graves | 30 | -0.24% |
| 29 | DET | 1.21% | 38.56 | Matt Millen | 31 | -0.25% |
| 30 | MIA | 0.95% | 30.34 | Nick Saban | 28 | -0.20% |
| 31 | LAR | 0.79% | 25.29 | Jay Zygmunt | 32 | -0.32% |
| 32 | ATL | 0.71% | 22.76 | Rich McKay | 29 | -0.21% |
2005
Poor Logan Mankins is the greatest forgotten Patriot because he was drafted after New England’s third Super Bowl win and traded before their fourth. He was an unbelievable left guard. And he played an entire season on a torn ACL.
| Rd | Pick | Pos | Player | VR | VR+ | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32 | G | Logan Mankins | 2.11% | 537.08 | 1.34% |
| 3 | 84 | DB | Ellis Hobbs | 0.61% | 156.65 | 0.17% |
| 3 | 100 | T | Nick Kaczur | 0.88% | 223.78 | 0.50% |
| 4 | 133 | DB | James Sanders | 0.55% | 139.86 | 0.27% |
| 5 | 170 | LB | Ryan Claridge | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.21% |
| 7 | 230 | QB | Matt Cassel | 0.99% | 251.76 | 0.87% |
| 7 | 255 | TE | Andy Stokes | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.03% |
Hobbs, Kaczur and Sanders were good values. Cassel obviously played well in 2008 when Tom Brady went down with a torn ACL and then went on to have a long career outside of New England.
This class rates very, very well for the Patriots, but we’ll only give it a B+. Mankins was great, and the Patriots got good value with the rest of their picks.
The Patriots also signed defensive tackle Mike Wright as an undrafted free agent. Wright, like Mankins, Moss and Welker (and Danny Woodhead!), was one of those great forgotten Patriots who never won a Super Bowl in New England.
| Rk | Team | VR | VR+ | GM | Rk | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 7.17% | 229.57 | Jerry Jones | 1 | 0.44% |
| 2 | SF | 6.25% | 200.09 | Scot McCloughan | 6 | 0.17% |
| 3 | LAR | 5.38% | 172.01 | Charley Armey | 8 | 0.14% |
| 3 | TEN | 5.38% | 172.01 | Floyd Reese | 12 | 0.08% |
| 5 | GB | 5.29% | 169.20 | Ted Thompson | 7 | 0.15% |
| 6 | NE | 5.13% | 164.28 | Bill Belichick | 2 | 0.42% |
| 7 | LAC | 5.00% | 160.07 | A.J. Smith | 5 | 0.25% |
| 8 | ATL | 4.96% | 158.67 | Rich McKay | 4 | 0.27% |
| 9 | CAR | 4.94% | 157.96 | Marty Hurney | 9 | 0.12% |
| 10 | PHI | 4.85% | 155.16 | Andy Reid | 11 | 0.08% |
| 11 | NYJ | 3.40% | 108.82 | Terry Bradaway | 10 | 0.10% |
| 12 | NYG | 3.03% | 96.88 | Ernie Accorsi | 3 | 0.33% |
| 13 | MIA | 2.98% | 95.48 | Nick Saban | 18 | -0.03% |
| 14 | SEA | 2.90% | 92.67 | Tim Ruskell | 19 | -0.04% |
| 15 | CHI | 2.83% | 90.57 | Jerry Angelo | 13 | 0.00% |
| 16 | KC | 2.74% | 87.76 | Carl Peterson | 15 | 0.00% |
| 17 | JAX | 2.68% | 85.65 | James Harris | 17 | -0.03% |
| 18 | PIT | 2.59% | 82.84 | Kevin Colbert | 14 | 0.00% |
| 19 | TB | 2.11% | 67.40 | Bruce Allen | 25 | -0.18% |
| 19 | WFT | 2.11% | 67.40 | Vinny Cerrato | 20 | -0.12% |
| 21 | ARI | 2.04% | 65.29 | Rod Graves | 26 | -0.18% |
| 22 | BAL | 1.97% | 63.19 | Ozzie Newsome | 21 | -0.12% |
| 23 | DEN | 1.95% | 62.48 | Ted Sundquist | 16 | -0.02% |
| 24 | LV | 1.84% | 58.97 | Al Davis | 24 | -0.18% |
| 25 | IND | 1.80% | 57.57 | Bill Polian | 22 | -0.16% |
| 25 | NO | 1.80% | 57.57 | Mickey Loomis | 23 | -0.17% |
| 27 | CLE | 1.73% | 55.46 | Phil Savage | 29 | -0.24% |
| 28 | CIN | 1.25% | 40.02 | Mike Brown | 31 | -0.30% |
| 29 | HOU | 1.16% | 37.21 | Charley Casserly | 28 | -0.20% |
| 30 | DET | 1.12% | 35.81 | Matt Millen | 30 | -0.30% |
| 31 | MIN | 0.99% | 31.59 | Rob Brzezinski | 32 | -0.40% |
| 32 | BUF | 0.64% | 20.36 | Tom Donahoe | 27 | -0.19% |
2004
The Patriots came into the 2004 NFL Draft with two picks: their own and Baltimore’s. The Ravens traded their 2004 first-round pick to New England to move up and take quarterback Kyle Boller in 2003. Whoops. The Patriots grabbed defensive tackle Vince Wilfork with Baltimore’s pick and tight end Ben Watson with their own.
Wilfork is one of the Patriots’ all-time greats. Watson had a long career in the NFL. The Patriots’ next-best player from this class was undrafted cornerback Randall Gay.
| Rd | Pick | Pos | Player | VR | VR+ | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | NT | Vince Wilfork | 1.94% | 495.42 | 1.04% |
| 1 | 32 | TE | Ben Watson | 0.96% | 244.86 | 0.20% |
| 2 | 63 | DE | Marquise Hill | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.55% |
| 3 | 95 | DB | Guss Scott | 0.02% | 5.69 | -0.37% |
| 4 | 113 | DB | Dexter Reid | 0.09% | 22.78 | -0.24% |
| 4 | 128 | RB | Cedric Cobbs | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.29% |
| 5 | 164 | WR | P.K. Sam | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.22% |
| 7 | 233 | DB | Christian Morton | 0.04% | 11.39 | -0.07% |
The Patriots get a B.
| Rk | Team | VR | VR+ | GM | Rk | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 9.02% | 288.70 | A.J. Smith | 3 | 0.37% |
| 2 | ARI | 7.35% | 235.10 | Rod Graves | 1 | 0.54% |
| 3 | NYG | 6.63% | 212.24 | Ernie Accorsi | 2 | 0.44% |
| 4 | ATL | 4.80% | 153.64 | Rich McKay | 4 | 0.17% |
| 5 | TEN | 4.24% | 135.77 | Floyd Reese | 16 | -0.02% |
| 6 | JAX | 4.20% | 134.35 | James Harris | 13 | 0.00% |
| 7 | PIT | 4.00% | 127.91 | Kevin Colbert | 5 | 0.10% |
| 8 | NYJ | 3.73% | 119.34 | Terry Bradaway | 6 | 0.09% |
| 9 | CIN | 3.57% | 114.34 | Mike Brown | 19 | -0.07% |
| 10 | CHI | 3.24% | 103.62 | Jerry Angelo | 17 | -0.02% |
| 11 | KC | 3.10% | 99.33 | Carl Peterson | 8 | 0.07% |
| 12 | NE | 3.06% | 97.90 | Bill Belichick | 18 | -0.06% |
| 13 | DAL | 3.01% | 96.47 | Jerry Jones | 10 | 0.04% |
| 13 | IND | 3.01% | 96.47 | Bill Polian | 15 | -0.01% |
| 15 | SF | 2.97% | 95.04 | Terry Donahue | 20 | -0.08% |
| 16 | SEA | 2.81% | 90.04 | Rob Ferguson | 12 | 0.01% |
| 17 | CAR | 2.72% | 87.18 | Marty Hurney | 7 | 0.08% |
| 18 | LAR | 2.57% | 82.18 | Charley Armey | 9 | 0.06% |
| 19 | GB | 2.55% | 81.46 | Mike Sherman | 14 | -0.01% |
| 20 | NO | 2.48% | 79.32 | Mickey Loomis | 21 | -0.09% |
| 21 | HOU | 2.30% | 73.60 | Charley Casserly | 22 | -0.09% |
| 22 | DET | 2.26% | 72.18 | Matt Millen | 32 | -0.23% |
| 23 | MIA | 2.10% | 67.17 | Rick Spielman | 11 | 0.02% |
| 24 | CLE | 2.03% | 65.03 | Butch Davis | 23 | -0.10% |
| 25 | MIN | 1.88% | 60.03 | Rob Brzezinski | 27 | -0.16% |
| 26 | LV | 1.85% | 59.31 | Al Davis | 30 | -0.20% |
| 27 | DEN | 1.81% | 57.88 | Ted Sundquist | 28 | -0.18% |
| 28 | BUF | 1.74% | 55.74 | Tom Donahoe | 31 | -0.22% |
| 29 | WFT | 1.50% | 47.88 | Vinny Cerrato | 25 | -0.14% |
| 30 | PHI | 1.27% | 40.73 | Andy Reid | 26 | -0.16% |
| 31 | TB | 1.14% | 36.44 | Bruce Allen | 29 | -0.18% |
| 32 | BAL | 1.05% | 33.59 | Ozzie Newsome | 24 | -0.11% |
2003
The Patriots, once again, were coming in with two first-round picks. They acquired one when they traded Drew Bledsoe to the Bills. They traded their own to the Ravens as previously mentioned. The Patriots wound up trading up one spot to take Warren, who was a good player but didn’t justify his draft slot.
The Patriots actually traded up for wide receiver Bethel Johnson, a mistake, but wound up with two later-round steals in Asante Samuel and Dan Koppen and a solid role player in Tully Banta-Cain.
| Rd | Pick | Pos | Player | VR | VR+ | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | DE | Ty Warren | 0.93% | 243.46 | -0.09% |
| 2 | 36 | DB | Eugene Wilson | 0.63% | 166.00 | -0.10% |
| 2 | 45 | WR | Bethel Johnson | 0.17% | 44.27 | -0.48% |
| 4 | 117 | DT | Dan Klecko | 0.13% | 33.20 | -0.19% |
| 4 | 120 | DB | Asante Samuel | 1.50% | 392.86 | 1.19% |
| 5 | 164 | C | Dan Koppen | 1.44% | 376.26 | 1.22% |
| 6 | 201 | QB | Kliff Kingsbury | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.16% |
| 7 | 234 | FB | Spencer Nead | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.11% |
| 7 | 239 | LB | Tully Banta-Cain | 0.46% | 121.73 | 0.37% |
| 7 | 243 | DT | Ethan Kelley | 0.13% | 33.20 | 0.03% |
The Patriots get an A for grabbing three very good starters.
| Rk | Team | VR | VR+ | GM | Rk | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 6.08% | 194.64 | Jerry Angelo | 11 | 0.09% |
| 2 | BAL | 5.91% | 189.23 | Ozzie Newsome | 5 | 0.18% |
| 3 | ARI | 5.41% | 173.01 | Rod Graves | 1 | 0.25% |
| 4 | NE | 5.39% | 172.33 | Bill Belichick | 7 | 0.17% |
| 5 | NYG | 4.92% | 157.47 | Ernie Accorsi | 6 | 0.17% |
| 6 | DAL | 4.77% | 152.73 | Jerry Jones | 2 | 0.21% |
| 7 | MIN | 4.44% | 141.92 | Rob Brzezinski | 4 | 0.18% |
| 8 | IND | 4.24% | 135.84 | Bill Polian | 8 | 0.16% |
| 9 | BUF | 4.18% | 133.81 | Tom Donahoe | 9 | 0.14% |
| 10 | CIN | 3.91% | 125.03 | Mike Brown | 18 | -0.04% |
| 11 | JAX | 3.44% | 110.16 | James Harris | 16 | -0.03% |
| 12 | SEA | 3.42% | 109.48 | Rob Ferguson | 15 | -0.02% |
| 13 | HOU | 3.25% | 104.08 | Charley Casserly | 25 | -0.10% |
| 14 | LAR | 3.23% | 103.40 | Charley Armey | 21 | -0.09% |
| 15 | LV | 3.21% | 102.72 | Al Davis | 19 | -0.05% |
| 16 | CLE | 3.10% | 99.35 | Butch Davis | 12 | 0.03% |
| 16 | PIT | 3.10% | 99.35 | Kevin Colbert | 3 | 0.19% |
| 18 | KC | 2.87% | 91.91 | Carl Peterson | 13 | 0.01% |
| 19 | CAR | 2.68% | 85.83 | Marty Hurney | 23 | -0.09% |
| 20 | DET | 2.60% | 83.13 | Matt Millen | 27 | -0.15% |
| 21 | GB | 2.58% | 82.45 | Mike Sherman | 10 | 0.12% |
| 22 | SF | 2.56% | 81.77 | Terry Donahue | 14 | -0.01% |
| 23 | LAC | 2.47% | 79.07 | A.J. Smith | 26 | -0.11% |
| 24 | MIA | 2.26% | 72.31 | Dave Wannstedt | 17 | -0.03% |
| 25 | NO | 1.92% | 61.50 | Mickey Loomis | 28 | -0.18% |
| 26 | NYJ | 1.52% | 48.66 | Terry Bradaway | 29 | -0.21% |
| 27 | TB | 1.33% | 42.58 | Rich McKay | 20 | -0.09% |
| 28 | DEN | 1.20% | 38.52 | Ted Sundquist | 30 | -0.21% |
| 29 | PHI | 1.10% | 35.14 | Andy Reid | 31 | -0.23% |
| 30 | TEN | 0.99% | 31.76 | Floyd Reese | 32 | -0.24% |
| 31 | ATL | 0.97% | 31.09 | Dan Reeves | 22 | -0.09% |
| 32 | WFT | 0.93% | 29.74 | Vinny Cerrato | 24 | -0.10% |
2002
The Patriots traded up to take tight end Daniel Graham, who didn’t wind up justifying the first-round pick. Wide receivers Deion Branch and David Givens and defensive end Jarvis Green were tremendous values in the second, fourth and seventh round.
| Rd | Pick | Pos | Player | VR | VR+ | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | TE | Daniel Graham | 0.44% | 114.90 | -0.46% |
| 2 | 65 | WR | Deion Branch | 1.20% | 314.46 | 0.66% |
| 4 | 117 | QB | Rohan Davey | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.31% |
| 4 | 126 | DE | Jarvis Green | 0.67% | 175.37 | 0.38% |
| 7 | 237 | RB | Antwoine Womack | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.10% |
| 7 | 253 | WR | David Givens | 0.51% | 133.04 | 0.44% |
The Patriots get a B.
| Rk | Team | VR | VR+ | GM | Rk | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 5.89% | 188.32 | Andy Reid | 2 | 0.34% |
| 2 | PIT | 5.77% | 184.62 | Kevin Colbert | 1 | 0.39% |
| 3 | CAR | 5.44% | 174.24 | Marty Hurney | 4 | 0.18% |
| 4 | BAL | 5.14% | 164.60 | Ozzie Newsome | 3 | 0.21% |
| 5 | HOU | 4.70% | 150.51 | Charley Casserly | 20 | -0.06% |
| 6 | JAX | 4.45% | 142.35 | Tom Coughlin | 8 | 0.13% |
| 7 | DAL | 3.99% | 127.53 | Jerry Jones | 12 | 0.01% |
| 8 | TEN | 3.82% | 122.34 | Floyd Reese | 13 | 0.01% |
| 9 | LV | 3.80% | 121.59 | Al Davis | 14 | 0.01% |
| 10 | IND | 3.54% | 113.44 | Bill Polian | 11 | 0.02% |
| 11 | CHI | 3.50% | 111.96 | Jerry Angelo | 5 | 0.18% |
| 12 | CLE | 3.48% | 111.21 | Dwight Clark | 16 | 0.00% |
| 13 | LAC | 3.43% | 109.73 | John Butler | 21 | -0.07% |
| 14 | BUF | 3.38% | 108.25 | Tom Donahoe | 19 | -0.05% |
| 15 | DEN | 3.34% | 106.77 | Ted Sundquist | 10 | 0.06% |
| 16 | NYJ | 3.20% | 102.32 | Terry Bradaway | 6 | 0.16% |
| 17 | NO | 3.17% | 101.58 | Mickey Loomis | 23 | -0.09% |
| 18 | MIN | 3.01% | 96.39 | Rob Brzezinski | 18 | -0.05% |
| 19 | GB | 2.97% | 94.90 | Mike Sherman | 7 | 0.13% |
| 20 | NE | 2.83% | 90.45 | Bill Belichick | 9 | 0.10% |
| 21 | SF | 2.34% | 74.88 | Terry Donahue | 17 | -0.01% |
| 22 | SEA | 2.29% | 73.40 | Mike Holmgren | 27 | -0.14% |
| 23 | CIN | 2.22% | 71.18 | Mike Brown | 26 | -0.12% |
| 24 | DET | 2.15% | 68.95 | Matt Millen | 29 | -0.15% |
| 25 | NYG | 1.97% | 63.02 | Ernie Accorsi | 24 | -0.11% |
| 26 | ATL | 1.71% | 54.87 | Dan Reeves | 25 | -0.11% |
| 27 | KC | 1.69% | 54.12 | Carl Peterson | 30 | -0.17% |
| 27 | WFT | 1.69% | 54.12 | Vinny Cerrato | 28 | -0.14% |
| 29 | LAR | 1.48% | 47.45 | Charley Armey | 31 | -0.18% |
| 30 | ARI | 1.44% | 45.97 | Bob Ferguson | 32 | -0.24% |
| 31 | MIA | 1.32% | 42.26 | Dave Wannstedt | 15 | 0.01% |
| 32 | TB | 0.83% | 26.69 | Rich McKay | 22 | -0.07% |
2001
Welcome to the last time the Patriots were organically picking in the top 10. The Patriots hit big with Richard Seymour, who should be elected into the Pro Football Hall of Fame this year.
They then wisely traded up for Matt Light in the second round. On top of that, the Patriots signed former Olympic wrestler Stephen Neal as an undrafted free agent.
| Rd | Pick | Pos | Player | VR | VR+ | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | DE | Richard Seymour | 1.87% | 460.02 | 0.72% |
| 2 | 48 | T | Matt Light | 2.08% | 511.68 | 1.45% |
| 3 | 86 | DB | Brock Williams | 0.02% | 4.92 | -0.41% |
| 4 | 96 | T | Kenyatta Jones | 0.17% | 41.82 | -0.22% |
| 4 | 119 | TE | Jabari Holloway | 0.02% | 4.92 | -0.29% |
| 5 | 163 | LB | Hakim Akbar | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.22% |
| 6 | 180 | TE | Arther Love | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.20% |
| 6 | 200 | DB | Leonard Myers | 0.02% | 4.92 | -0.14% |
| 7 | 216 | K | Owen Pochman | -0.04% | -9.84 | -0.18% |
| 7 | 239 | LB | T.J. Turner | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.10% |
The Patriots missed on most of these picks but wound up with two team hall of famers. This gets a B+.
| Rk | Team | VR | VR+ | GM | Rk | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 6.99% | 216.68 | John Butler | 1 | 0.42% |
| 2 | CIN | 6.07% | 188.31 | Mike Brown | 2 | 0.37% |
| 3 | BUF | 5.49% | 170.25 | Tom Donahoe | 7 | 0.09% |
| 4 | ARI | 5.47% | 169.61 | Bob Ferguson | 8 | 0.09% |
| 5 | ATL | 5.35% | 165.74 | Dan Reeves | 6 | 0.12% |
| 6 | IND | 5.33% | 165.09 | Bill Polian | 3 | 0.36% |
| 7 | SEA | 5.22% | 161.87 | Mike Holmgren | 11 | 0.02% |
| 8 | CAR | 4.56% | 141.23 | Marty Hurney | 17 | -0.06% |
| 9 | DET | 4.39% | 136.07 | Matt Millen | 4 | 0.26% |
| 10 | NYJ | 4.24% | 131.56 | Terry Bradaway | 5 | 0.25% |
| 11 | NE | 4.14% | 128.33 | Bill Belichick | 9 | 0.04% |
| 12 | LAR | 3.87% | 119.95 | Charley Armey | 19 | -0.10% |
| 13 | JAX | 3.33% | 103.18 | Tom Coughlin | 15 | -0.02% |
| 14 | SF | 3.25% | 100.60 | Bill Walsh | 12 | 0.02% |
| 15 | BAL | 2.83% | 87.71 | Ozzie Newsome | 10 | 0.04% |
| 16 | CLE | 2.73% | 84.48 | Dwight Clark | 22 | -0.11% |
| 16 | PIT | 2.73% | 84.48 | Kevin Colbert | 13 | 0.00% |
| 18 | TB | 2.60% | 80.61 | Rich McKay | 16 | -0.02% |
| 19 | MIA | 2.52% | 78.03 | Dave Wannstedt | 18 | -0.09% |
| 20 | DEN | 2.16% | 67.07 | Neal Dahlen | 21 | -0.11% |
| 21 | PHI | 2.06% | 63.84 | Tom Modrak | 24 | -0.12% |
| 22 | TEN | 1.89% | 58.69 | Floyd Reese | 14 | -0.01% |
| 23 | CHI | 1.83% | 56.75 | Mark Hatley | 28 | -0.22% |
| 23 | WFT | 1.83% | 56.75 | Marty Schottenheimer | 23 | -0.12% |
| 25 | NYG | 1.81% | 56.11 | Ernie Accorsi | 20 | -0.11% |
| 26 | NO | 1.69% | 52.24 | Randy Mueller | 26 | -0.15% |
| 27 | DAL | 1.41% | 43.85 | Jerry Jones | 25 | -0.14% |
| 28 | KC | 1.16% | 36.11 | Carl Peterson | 27 | -0.16% |
| 29 | GB | 1.14% | 35.47 | Ron Wolf | 31 | -0.36% |
| 30 | MIN | 1.10% | 34.18 | Dennis Green | 30 | -0.25% |
| 31 | LV | 0.81% | 25.15 | Al Davis | 29 | -0.24% |
2000
And now we get down to the Brady draft. As far as hit rate goes, this one wasn’t overly strong for Belichick in his first draft with the Patriots. But they also wound up with the greatest quarterback in NFL history.
| Rd | Pick | Pos | Player | VR | VR+ | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 46 | G | Adrian Klemm | 0.22% | 55.76 | -0.42% |
| 3 | 76 | RB | J.R. Redmond | 0.20% | 50.19 | -0.29% |
| 4 | 127 | T | Greg Randall | 0.46% | 117.10 | 0.17% |
| 5 | 141 | TE | Dave Stachelski | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.26% |
| 5 | 161 | DT | Jeff Marriott | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.23% |
| 6 | 187 | DB | Antwan Harris | 0.09% | 22.31 | -0.10% |
| 6 | 199 | QB | Tom Brady | 3.93% | 998.16 | 3.77% |
| 6 | 201 | DE | David Nugent | 0.04% | 11.15 | -0.11% |
| 7 | 226 | LB | Casey Tisdale | 0.00% | 0.00 | -0.12% |
| 7 | 239 | FB | Patrick Pass | 0.22% | 55.76 | 0.12% |
So, yeah, despite the fact that Adrian Klemm didn’t exactly work out as Belichick’s first-ever Patriots pick, this draft gets an A.
| Rk | Team | VR | VR+ | GM | Rk | VvE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 6.63% | 205.53 | Bill Parcells | 2 | 0.21% |
| 2 | GB | 6.04% | 187.16 | Ron Wolf | 4 | 0.15% |
| 3 | CHI | 5.25% | 162.66 | Mark Hatley | 3 | 0.18% |
| 4 | NE | 5.16% | 159.93 | Bill Belichick | 1 | 0.25% |
| 5 | PIT | 4.70% | 145.64 | Kevin Colbert | 8 | 0.07% |
| 6 | DEN | 4.61% | 142.92 | Neal Dahlen | 13 | 0.04% |
| 7 | SF | 4.57% | 141.56 | Bill Walsh | 22 | -0.07% |
| 8 | BAL | 4.17% | 129.31 | Ozzie Newsome | 5 | 0.14% |
| 9 | NYG | 4.08% | 126.59 | Ernie Accorsi | 6 | 0.13% |
| 10 | JAX | 3.78% | 117.06 | Tom Coughlin | 7 | 0.08% |
| 11 | SEA | 3.71% | 115.02 | Mike Holmgren | 18 | -0.04% |
| 12 | TEN | 3.69% | 114.34 | Floyd Reese | 11 | 0.05% |
| 13 | ARI | 3.58% | 110.93 | Bob Ferguson | 15 | 0.01% |
| 14 | MIN | 3.42% | 106.17 | Dennis Green | 16 | -0.01% |
| 15 | CAR | 3.23% | 100.04 | Marty Hurney | 10 | 0.06% |
| 16 | NO | 3.18% | 98.68 | Randy Mueller | 9 | 0.07% |
| 17 | IND | 2.77% | 85.75 | Bill Polian | 14 | 0.03% |
| 18 | LV | 2.72% | 84.39 | Al Davis | 12 | 0.05% |
| 19 | PHI | 2.66% | 82.35 | Tom Modrak | 24 | -0.11% |
| 20 | WFT | 2.61% | 80.99 | Vinny Cerrato | 29 | -0.16% |
| 21 | CIN | 2.41% | 74.86 | Mike Brown | 27 | -0.16% |
| 22 | CLE | 2.31% | 71.46 | Dwight Clark | 30 | -0.24% |
| 23 | LAR | 2.17% | 67.38 | Charley Armey | 21 | -0.07% |
| 24 | DET | 2.15% | 66.70 | Chuck Schmidt | 20 | -0.06% |
| 25 | KC | 2.11% | 65.33 | Carl Peterson | 25 | -0.12% |
| 26 | LAC | 2.02% | 62.61 | Bobby Beathard | 19 | -0.05% |
| 27 | ATL | 1.45% | 44.92 | Dan Reeves | 26 | -0.14% |
| 28 | BUF | 1.43% | 44.24 | John Butler | 28 | -0.16% |
| 29 | TB | 1.38% | 42.88 | Rich McKay | 17 | -0.03% |
| 30 | MIA | 1.30% | 40.15 | Dave Wannstedt | 23 | -0.10% |
| 31 | DAL | 0.72% | 22.46 | Jerry Jones | 31 | -0.29% |
GENERAL MANAGERS
Here are our overall GM rankings from 2000 to 2020. We didn’t include picks made before 2000 for general managers like Bill Parcells, John Butler, Ozzie Newsome, etc. who were making picks in earlier decades.
| TEAM | GM | Year | Rk | VR | VR+ | Rk | VVE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Bill Parcells | 2000 | 1 | 6.63% | 205.53 | 1 | 0.21% |
| WFT | Ron Rivera | 2020 | 2 | 4.76% | 152.32 | 2 | 0.21% |
| BAL | Eric DeCosta | 2019-2020 | 3 | 4.36% | 139.52 | 5 | 0.11% |
| IND | Chris Ballard | 2017-2020 | 4 | 4.33% | 138.56 | 11 | 0.08% |
| GB | Ted Thompson | 2005-2017 | 5 | 4.28% | 136.96 | 6 | 0.10% |
| CLE | Sashi Brown | 2016-2017 | 6 | 4.07% | 130.24 | 100 | -0.11% |
| DEN | Jim Goodman | 2008 | 7 | 4.05% | 129.6 | 8 | 0.08% |
| SEA | John Schneider | 2010-2020 | 8 | 3.96% | 126.72 | 9 | 0.08% |
| KC, CLE | John Dorsey | 2013-2019 | 10 | 3.92% | 125.44 | 10 | 0.08% |
| BUF | Brandon Beane | 2018-2020 | 12 | 3.87% | 123.84 | 3 | 0.13% |
| SF, WFT | Scot McCloughan | 2005-2009, 2015-2016 | 12 | 3.87% | 123.84 | 12 | 0.07% |
| BUF, CHG | John Butler | 2000-2002 | 9 | 3.95% | 123.55 | 15 | 0.07% |
| MIA | Chris Grier | 2016-2020 | 14 | 3.79% | 121.28 | 20 | 0.05% |
| BUF | Marv Levy | 2006-2007 | 14 | 3.79% | 121.28 | 18 | 0.05% |
| SF | Bill Walsh | 2000-2001 | 11 | 3.91% | 121.21 | 70 | -0.03% |
| BAL | Ozzie Newsome | 2000-2018 | 16 | 3.78% | 120.51 | 14 | 0.07% |
| SF | John Lynch | 2017-2020 | 18 | 3.68% | 117.76 | 32 | 0.03% |
| SEA | Mike Holmgren | 2000-2002 | 17 | 3.74% | 116.76 | 82 | -0.05% |
| JAX | David Caldwell | 2013-2016, 2020 | 19 | 3.64% | 116.48 | 71 | -0.03% |
| LV | Mike Mayock | 2019-2020 | 20 | 3.61% | 115.52 | 94 | -0.09% |
| PHI, CLE | Tom Heckert | 2006-2012 | 21 | 3.59% | 114.88 | 42 | 0.01% |
| DEN | Brian Xanders | 2009-2010 | 25 | 3.52% | 112.64 | 98 | -0.11% |
| NYG | Ernie Accorsi | 2000-2006 | 24 | 3.53% | 112.05 | 4 | 0.11% |
| CAR | Marty Hurney | 2000-2012, 2018-2020 | 26 | 3.50% | 111.5 | 33 | 0.03% |
| NE | Bill Belichick | 2000-2020 | 26 | 3.50% | 111.46 | 26 | 0.04% |
| GB | Ron Wolf | 2000-2001 | 21 | 3.59% | 111.29 | 57 | -0.01% |
| CHI | Mark Hatley | 2000-2001 | 23 | 3.54% | 109.74 | 38 | 0.02% |
| MIN | Fran Foley | 2006 | 29 | 3.42% | 109.44 | 35 | 0.02% |
| LAC | A.J. Smith | 2003-2012 | 30 | 3.41% | 109.12 | 21 | 0.05% |
| JAX | Tom Coughlin | 2000-2002, 2017-2019 | 30 | 3.41% | 109.12 | 30 | 0.03% |
| ARI | Bob Ferguson | 2000-2002 | 26 | 3.50% | 108.84 | 78 | -0.04% |
| ARI | Rod Graves | 2003-2012 | 32 | 3.40% | 108.8 | 25 | 0.04% |
| CAR, NYG | Dave Gettleman | 2013-2020 | 34 | 3.38% | 108.16 | 23 | 0.05% |
| MIA | Jeff Ireland | 2008-2013 | 34 | 3.38% | 108.16 | 52 | -0.01% |
| HOU | Rick Smith | 2007-2017 | 36 | 3.36% | 107.52 | 28 | 0.03% |
| MIA, MIN | Rick Spielman | 2004, 2007-2020 | 36 | 3.36% | 107.52 | 34 | 0.02% |
| CIN | Mike Brown | 2000-2020 | 36 | 3.36% | 106.96 | 63 | -0.02% |
| TB | Jason Licht | 2014-2020 | 39 | 3.34% | 106.88 | 45 | 0.01% |
| DET | Martin Mayhew | 2009-2015 | 39 | 3.34% | 106.88 | 47 | 0.00% |
| PIT | Kevin Colbert | 2000-2020 | 39 | 3.34% | 106.63 | 16 | 0.06% |
| TEN | Mike Reinfeldt | 2007-2011 | 43 | 3.32% | 106.24 | 48 | 0.00% |
| IND | Bill Polian | 2000-2009 | 42 | 3.33% | 105.89 | 17 | 0.06% |
| TEN | Floyd Reese | 2000-2006 | 44 | 3.31% | 105.15 | 55 | -0.01% |
| DEN | Neal Dahlen | 2000-2001 | 33 | 3.39% | 105.09 | 59 | -0.02% |
| PHI | Andy Reid | 2002-2005 | 45 | 3.28% | 104.96 | 40 | 0.02% |
| LAR | Les Snead | 2012-2020 | 46 | 3.27% | 104.64 | 49 | 0.00% |
| HOU | Charley Casserly | 2002-2006 | 47 | 3.25% | 104 | 89 | -0.07% |
| MIA | Dennis Hickey | 2014-2015 | 48 | 3.24% | 103.68 | 27 | 0.04% |
| NYJ | Terry Bradaway | 2001-2005 | 49 | 3.22% | 102.14 | 13 | 0.07% |
| CLE | Ray Farmer | 2014-2015 | 50 | 3.16% | 101.12 | 110 | -0.14% |
| DAL | Jerry Jones | 2000-2020 | 50 | 3.16% | 101.01 | 31 | 0.03% |
| BUF | Buddy Nix | 2010-2013 | 52 | 3.15% | 100.8 | 88 | -0.07% |
| ATL | Thomas Dimitroff | 2008-2020 | 52 | 3.15% | 100.8 | 24 | 0.04% |
| SEA | Rob Ferguson | 2003-2004 | 54 | 3.12% | 99.84 | 54 | -0.01% |
| DET | Bob Quinn | 2016-2020 | 56 | 3.11% | 99.52 | 64 | -0.02% |
| LAR | Charley Armey | 2000-2005 | 54 | 3.12% | 98.73 | 73 | -0.03% |
| BUF | Russ Brandon | 2008-2009 | 58 | 3.06% | 97.92 | 93 | -0.08% |
| BUF | Tom Donahoe | 2001-2005 | 57 | 3.09% | 97.68 | 61 | -0.02% |
| TEN | Jon Robinson | 2016-2020 | 59 | 3.05% | 97.6 | 66 | -0.02% |
| WFT | Mike Shanahan | 2010-2013 | 60 | 3.04% | 97.28 | 36 | 0.02% |
| DEN | John Elway | 2011-2020 | 61 | 3.03% | 96.96 | 58 | -0.02% |
| CLE | George Kokinis | 2009 | 62 | 3.01% | 96.32 | 90 | -0.07% |
| PHI | Howie Roseman | 2010-2014, 2016-2020 | 62 | 3.01% | 96.32 | 53 | -0.01% |
| NO | Mickey Loomis | 2002-2020 | 62 | 3.01% | 96.32 | 22 | 0.05% |
| JAX | James Harris | 2003-2008 | 65 | 2.99% | 95.68 | 65 | -0.02% |
| CHI | Jerry Angelo | 2002-2011 | 65 | 2.99% | 95.68 | 41 | 0.01% |
| LAC | Tom Telesco | 2013-2020 | 67 | 2.97% | 95.04 | 37 | 0.02% |
| SF | Trent Baalke | 2010-2016 | 67 | 2.97% | 95.04 | 87 | -0.06% |
| CHI | Ryan Pace | 2015-2020 | 70 | 2.93% | 93.76 | 29 | 0.03% |
| NO, MIA | Randy Mueller | 2000-2001, 2007 | 69 | 2.95% | 92.93 | 56 | -0.01% |
| CLE | Andrew Berry | 2020 | 71 | 2.89% | 92.48 | 76 | -0.04% |
| NYJ | Joe Douglas | 2020 | 71 | 2.89% | 92.48 | 112 | -0.15% |
| LV | Reggie McKenzie | 2012-2018 | 73 | 2.84% | 90.88 | 60 | -0.02% |
| CLE | Dwight Clark | 2000-2002 | 73 | 2.84% | 89.05 | 111 | -0.14% |
| TB, WFT | Bruce Allen | 2004-2008, 2014, 2017-2019 | 75 | 2.78% | 88.96 | 84 | -0.05% |
| BUF | Doug Whaley | 2014-2017 | 76 | 2.74% | 87.68 | 39 | 0.02% |
| ARI | Steve Keim | 2013-2020 | 76 | 2.74% | 87.68 | 80 | -0.04% |
| KC | Carl Peterson | 2000-2008 | 76 | 2.74% | 87.19 | 77 | -0.04% |
| CHI | Phil Emery | 2012-2014 | 79 | 2.72% | 87.04 | 51 | 0.00% |
| KC | Scott Pioli | 2009-2012 | 79 | 2.72% | 87.04 | 92 | -0.08% |
| GB | Mike Sherman | 2002-2004 | 81 | 2.70% | 86.4 | 7 | 0.09% |
| LAR | Billy Devaney | 2009-2011 | 82 | 2.69% | 86.08 | 105 | -0.11% |
| TB | Mark Dominik | 2009-2013 | 83 | 2.68% | 85.76 | 79 | -0.04% |
| NYJ | Mike Tannenbaum | 2006-2012 | 84 | 2.67% | 85.44 | 44 | 0.01% |
| DEN | Ted Sundquist | 2002-2007 | 85 | 2.66% | 85.12 | 68 | -0.03% |
| SF | Terry Donahue | 2002-2004 | 86 | 2.62% | 83.84 | 74 | -0.03% |
| TB, ATL | Rich McKay | 2000-2007 | 87 | 2.60% | 82.82 | 43 | 0.01% |
| GB | Brian Gutekunst | 2018-2020 | 88 | 2.58% | 82.56 | 91 | -0.08% |
| MIN | Rob Brzezinski | 2002-2005 | 88 | 2.58% | 82.56 | 101 | -0.11% |
| CLE | Butch Davis | 2003-2004 | 90 | 2.57% | 82.24 | 72 | -0.03% |
| IND | Ryan Grigson | 2012-2016 | 90 | 2.57% | 82.24 | 67 | -0.03% |
| SEA | Tim Ruskell | 2005-2009 | 92 | 2.53% | 80.96 | 50 | 0.00% |
| DET | Matt Millen | 2001-2008 | 92 | 2.53% | 80.45 | 109 | -0.12% |
| PHI | Chip Kelly | 2015 | 94 | 2.48% | 79.36 | 46 | 0.01% |
| NYJ | John Idzik | 2013-2014 | 94 | 2.48% | 79.36 | 113 | -0.15% |
| TEN | Ruston Webster | 2012-2015 | 96 | 2.47% | 79.04 | 99 | -0.11% |
| KC | Brett Veach | 2018-2020 | 97 | 2.45% | 78.4 | 19 | 0.05% |
| HOU | Brian Gaine | 2018-2019 | 98 | 2.44% | 78.08 | 69 | -0.03% |
| LV | Al Davis | 2000-2011 | 99 | 2.43% | 77.52 | 96 | -0.10% |
| NYG | Jerry Reese | 2007-2017 | 100 | 2.40% | 76.8 | 83 | -0.05% |
| JAX | Gene Smith | 2009-2012 | 103 | 2.32% | 74.24 | 95 | -0.10% |
| ATL | Dan Reeves | 2000-2003 | 101 | 2.37% | 74.15 | 75 | -0.03% |
| PHI | Tom Modrak | 2000-2001 | 102 | 2.36% | 73.16 | 102 | -0.11% |
| CLE | Phil Savage | 2005-2008 | 105 | 2.24% | 71.68 | 97 | -0.10% |
| IND | Chris Polian | 2010-2011 | 106 | 2.22% | 71.04 | 62 | -0.02% |
| MIN | Dennis Green | 2000-2001 | 104 | 2.26% | 70.06 | 107 | -0.12% |
| NYJ | Mike Maccagnan | 2015-2019 | 107 | 2.18% | 69.76 | 104 | -0.11% |
| DET | Chuck Schmidt | 2000 | 108 | 2.15% | 66.65 | 86 | -0.06% |
| MIA | Nick Saban | 2005-2006 | 110 | 1.97% | 63.04 | 103 | -0.11% |
| LAC | Bobby Beathard | 2000 | 109 | 2.02% | 62.62 | 81 | -0.05% |
| MIA | Dave Wannstedt | 2000-2003 | 111 | 1.85% | 58.19 | 85 | -0.06% |
| WFT | Marty Schottenheimer | 2001 | 112 | 1.83% | 56.73 | 106 | -0.12% |
| LAR | Jay Zygmunt | 2006-2008 | 113 | 1.69% | 54.08 | 114 | -0.21% |
| WFT | Vinny Cerrato | 2000, 2002-2009 | 113 | 1.69% | 53.75 | 108 | -0.12% |
| CLE | Mike Lombardi | 2013 | 115 | 0.92% | 29.44 | 116 | -0.25% |
| HOU | Bill O'Brien | 2020 | 116 | 0.68% | 21.76 | 115 | -0.23% |
