Bill Belichick faced criticism for his fourth-quarter field-goal decision in Saturday night’s New England Patriots loss. But his reasoning behind it was straightforward and understandable.
With the Patriots trailing the Indianapolis Colts by 13 points with nine minutes remaining, Belichick opted to kick a short field goal on fourth-and-goal from the 7-yard line rather than keep his offense on the field. Nick Folk booted it through from 25 yards out, cutting New England’s deficit to 20-10.
The Patriots proceeded to force a Colts punt and scored a touchdown on their ensuing possession, but Indianapolis responded with a 67-yard Jonathan Taylor touchdown run with two minutes left that put the game away. Final score: Colts 27, Patriots 17.
Had New England gotten one more defensive stop, its offense would have had a chance to tie the game with an additional Folk field goal. That’s what Belichick was banking on.
“It’s still a two-possession game,” Belichick explained in a Monday morning video conference, “but now it’s a field goal, and I thought there was enough time left that we would have enough possessions to be able to score 10 points, which we conceivably could have.”
Belichick felt more confident in the Patriots’ ability to score twice more in the final nine minutes than their odds of gaining the 7 necessary yards on fourth-and-goal.
“It was fourth-and-goal on the 7,” the Patriots head coach said. “… I didn’t feel great about converting fourth-and-goal from the 7. Had there been less time and the situation been different, there’s a point where you would go for it, or I would go for it on fourth-and-goal from the 7, absolutely. I didn’t think, in that game situation, that that would have been the best decision. I thought that would have passed up three points, and then it would have taken two touchdowns.”
The Patriots were in that unfavorable goal-to-go situation because extra O-lineman Mike Onwenu jumped offsides on third-and-goal from the 2 — one of several costly New England penalties in the game. Quarterback Mac Jones fired incomplete to Hunter Henry on the following play, setting up fourth down. Had Onwenu not false-started, Belichick might have chosen to go for it in that situation.
Belichick also noted the ideal kicking conditions. Saturday’s game was played indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium, inspiring confidence that Folk — who is 34-for-37 on field goals this season and has made five from 50-plus — would be able to convert late if called upon.
“At the end of the game, being able to, especially in a dome, have a chance at a 50-plus-yard field goal, I think it’s a lot better chance than scoring a touchdown and having a six-point differential as opposed to a three-point differential relative to the chances of converting a fourth-and-7,” Belichick said. “But at some point, I definitely would have kept the offense on the field on fourth-and-7 with less time or no timeouts.”
All 17 Patriots points Saturday night came in the fourth quarter, after the Colts had built a 20-0 advantage. The loss dropped New England to 9-5 on the season and from first to second in the AFC standings ahead of this Sunday’s massively important AFC East rematch with the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium.
