Trevor Story To Red Sox? Why Free Agency Splash Does (And Doesn’t) Work

Will the Red Sox make a splash before Opening Day? As part of our “free agency fits” series, we’re examining whether several top players remaining on the open market make sense (or don’t make sense) as Boston builds its roster for the 2022 Major League Baseball season.

Yes, the Red Sox already have a shortstop. Perhaps you’ve heard of him?

While replacing Xander Bogaerts likely isn’t atop Boston’s list of priorities this offseason, it of course is worth considering whether any of the top shortstop talent available on the free agent market — and there is a lot of it — could fit in with the Red Sox.

We already examined whether it makes sense for the Red Sox to shell out on Carlos Correa, and Trevor Story presents another intriguing opportunity.

Story has spent all six seasons of his career with the Colorado Rockies, and while he has racked up two All-Star selections and a pair of Silver Sluggers, he is coming off a much quieter campaign.

Should the next phase of the former first-round pick’s career take place in Boston? Let’s discuss.

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Info
Position: Shortstop
Age: 29 (Nov. 15, 1992)
Height: 6-foot-2
Weight: 213 pounds
Bats: Right
Throws: Right

2021 stats
142 games (595 plate appearances)
24 HR, 75 RBIs, 20 SB
.251/.329/.471
4.2 bWAR, 3.5 fWAR

Career stats
745 games (3,136 plate appearances)
158 HR, 450 RBIs, 100 SB
.272/.340/.523
26.7 bWAR, 21.6 fWAR

Why Story makes sense for the Red Sox:
At the end of a 2021 season that exceeded expectations, Red Sox manager Alex Cora acknowledged the possibility of making some positional changes in Boston’s infield.

Among them could be moving Rafael Devers to first base and sliding Xander Bogaerts over to third base, but the possibilities really are endless — especially considering the Red Sox don’t have a ton in line at second base for the upcoming season. Any able-bodied infielder is a plus, but a multi-time All-Star, obviously, is even better.

Beggars can’t be choosers, but if the Red Sox could sign Story to a short-term deal, he could be the bridge to the Marcelo Mayer era as Boston waits for one of its top-ranked prospects to get MLB-ready. Then, even if Bogaerts opts out of his contract after the 2022 season, there is a short- and long-term successor in place.

Why Story doesn’t make sense for the Red Sox:
While the shorter deal discussed above would make sense for Boston, it seems it might be difficult to get Story to sign one of those. (And with the sort of value he has, it’s for good reason.)

Spotrac projected Story’s market value at eight years with an average salary of $29.8 million. Even if the Red Sox need someone to patch over any holes in the infield this season or next, they just aren’t in the market for long-term answers at this point.

Bogaerts can opt out of his contract following the 2022 season, but if he elects to stick around, he is under team control (at $20 million annually) through 2026. He also has a no-trade clause that kicked in when he reached seven years of service time in 2020.

An All-Star caliber shortstop just isn’t a priority for Boston this offseason, considering the club already has one on the roster. A surefire way to ensure Bogaerts doesn’t stick around when he has the option to move on likely would be to force him out of his natural position with a player who is the same age and put up pretty similar statistics.

And if Bogaerts opts out anyway? Well, Didi Gregorius and Trea Turner, though both on the older end of the spectrum, are set to enter free agency in 2023. So, there will be another opportunity for Boston to get a bridge guy — which is what it really needs, if anything, in the gap.

Verdict: Not a fit. Don’t fix what isn’t really broken.

Prediction: Story signs with the New York Yankees.