Red Sox Prospect Outlook: Could 2023 Finally Be Bryan Mata’s Year?

Before the start of the 2023 season, NESN.com is evaluating several noteworthy prospects in the Boston Red Sox organization, using insight and analysis from industry experts to gauge each player’s outlook for the upcoming campaign. Next up: Bryan Mata.

Bryan Mata seemingly has been on the cusp of a big-league call-up for years, but everything points to 2023 finally being the year.

A number of setbacks have doomed the inevitable over the past few seasons, as Mata has steadily been a top-10 prospect in the Red Sox system without ever breaking through that glass ceiling. Everything that has come out of Boston on the 23-year-old has been positive, with Chris Sale raving about how Mata turned a corner in 2022.

After building up considerable pitching depth this offseason, will the Red Sox have an opportunity to finally make Mata a major leaguer?

Here’s everything you need to know about the Red Sox’s most powerful prospect arm.

Mata’s story
Mata is a native of Maracay, Venezuela, whose career with the Red Sox has been the definition of stop-start.

Mata was expected to sign with the Milwaukee Brewers in July 2015 before a groin injury pushed back his decision. Boston was the beneficiary, inking the flame-thrower to a $25,000 signing bonus six months later. Mata flew through the Red Sox’s system early on, rising all the way to High-A Greenville by the time he turned 18. That’s when injuries started to derail his progress.

Back, shoulder and hamstring injuries all slowed his development over the next three seasons, before a torn UCL led to Tommy John surgery and a lost 2021 campaign. Mata returned to the mound at the conclusion of the 2022 season, capping things off with a pair of starts for Triple-A Worcester.

Throughout all of that, Mata remained a top-10 prospect in the Red Sox system and is entering his sixth consecutive season among Boston’s top prospects.

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Scouting report
Mata is an absolute moose on the mound. Standing at 6-foot-3, 240 pounds, he’s one of the largest pitching prospects Boston has had in the past 10 seasons.

He’s got the arm to show for it, too.

“His raw stuff is impressive,” Ian Cundall, director of scouting for SoxProspects.com, recently told NESN.com. “He’s up to 100 miles per hour, he’s got the cutter, slider, breaking ball. He shows multiple pitches. I think with him, it’s just the command that concerns me. … I think he has the raw stuff to be a premium relief arm.”

Mata’s delivery isn’t so much deceptive as it is quick. He’s got the ability to get the ball on top of the batter with ease, in a number of different ways.

“He’s a multi-inning guy,” Cundall said. “He does have secondary pitches. He’s not a one-and-a-half-pitch guy. His breaking ball is decent, but we have the slider and changeup as his top two secondary pitches behind a good fastball.”

“His raw stuff is impressive.”

Ian Cundall, director of scouting for SoxProspects.com, on Bryan Mata

Most-likely outcome: Average reliever.

Mata’s projection as a reliever really comes from the fact that he’s running out of time. With only one option remaining, the Red Sox will have to make the decision on him at some point this summer, which is conducive to a role in the bullpen.

“If he gets to midseason and he’s putting up good numbers, I think you start the transition to (the bullpen),” Cundall said. “You’ve got to get him some exposure to the major-league level.”

Best-case scenario: Mid-rotation starter.

There always is the chance that Mata comes into spring training having improved on his command, which would set him up for a midseason call-up as a starter. If you watched the Red Sox in 2022, you know that’s a very real possibility and that starting pitching depth remains crucial in Major League Baseball.

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SoxProspects ranking: No. 6
Mata is SoxProspects’ top-rated pitcher, slotting in at No. 6 after finishing last season at No. 7.

Fenway forecast
A 2023 call-up seems likely.

“He only has one option remaining,” Cundall said. “This year — it is a very, very important year for his development. They’re going to have to figure out what they have with him. He’s going to start out as a starting pitcher this year, I just think long-term he’s going to end up in the bullpen.”

You’re going to see Mata in Boston very soon.