Who Will Be Red Sox’s 2023 Breakout Performer? Here Are Our Predictions

The Red Sox failed to build upon their momentum last season, going from reaching the American League Championship Series in 2021 to finishing last in the AL East in 2022.

This understandably led to some frustration across Red Sox Nation, which the franchise is looking to extinguish by leaning on several new faces in 2023. Boston has its work cut out, with the division being stacked, but a few positive developments could turn the tide back in the Sox’s favor.

So, who will be the Red Sox’s breakout performer this season? We posed that question to the NESN Digital staff and received a wide range of responses, with various factors being considered.

Let’s dive in.

Mike Cole: Nick Pivetta, RHP
The flashes have been there his entire career, but Pivetta’s quest for consistency remains his biggest hurdle. If it’s ever going to happen, the Red Sox sure would benefit from it happening in 2023, where he’ll be needed more than ever. There’s so much uncertainty in the rotation, especially to begin the season. The innings-eating Pivetta could stabilize that staff early, and if his reformed arsenal allows him to mix the swing-and-miss with ability to take the ball all season, he’ll be the rock of an uncertain rotation.

Ricky Doyle: Brayan Bello, RHP
Bello will start the season on the injured list after dealing with a forearm issue early in spring training. It shouldn’t be long before he rejoins Boston’s rotation, though, and don’t be shocked if he becomes the Red Sox’s best starting pitcher by the time October rolls around. Sure, Bello’s 2022 surface stats weren’t great. But the underlying metrics suggest the young right-hander deserved better in his rookie campaign, with bad batted-ball luck largely to blame for his perceived struggles. Combine some positive regression with year-over-year development, and Bello is positioned to blossom in 2023, his age-24 season.

Greg Dudek: Adam Duvall, OF
Not much has been made about the signing of Duvall this offseason, but he could provide the power the Red Sox’s outfield sorely lacked last season. Healthy now after a wrist injury, Duvall crushed 38 homers in 2021. Getting to that exact number again seems very lofty for the 34-year-old, but it isn’t out of the question that he hits 30 round-trippers to make a significant impact in his first season with Boston.

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Adam London: Alex Verdugo, OF
Masataka Yoshida probably is the easy answer here, but for the sake of variety, let’s mix it up. Verdugo, the centerpiece of the Mookie Betts trade, has yet to live up to his potential since arriving to Boston in 2020. The 26-year-old was challenged by Alex Cora after his underwhelming 2022 season, and Verdugo appears to be highly motivated to answer the bell. This isn’t to say Verdugo will be an MVP candidate, but an All-Star nod feels within the realm of possibility.

Sean McGuire: Masataka Yoshida, OF
Yoshida received a larger contract from the Red Sox than some might have expected this offseason, but his performance in the World Baseball Classic nevertheless was a great indication of his potential. Red Sox manager Alex Cora wants to make sure Yoshida gains comfortability and familiarity at the major league level — prompting Cora to start with Yoshida in the middle of the lineup — and it could ensure the Japanese import is all the more impactful for Boston.

Jason Ounpraseuth: Kiké Hernández, SS/OF
Hernández will face the tall task of replacing Xander Bogaerts. And while he might not match the now San Diego Padres shortstop in the box score, this season will be one where Hernández emerges as a true team leader, and he will have his opportunities to make timely plays when called upon.

Gio Rivera: Masataka Yoshida, OF
Yoshida was overshadowed during the World Baseball Classic by the tournament’s most outstanding player, Shohei Ohtani, but he still deserved his flowers. Yoshida set an all-time WBC record with 13 RBIs alongside a .409 batting average while playing for Team Japan. Entering his rookie season, Yoshida has the upper hand of seven seasons under his belt in the NPB. His plate discipline — which never hurts — coupled with some sneaky power should pay off Boston’s five-year, $90 million offseason investment.

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Keagan Stiefel: Masataka Yoshida, OF
Yoshida will walk into Boston and immediately become one of its best hitters this season. I anticipate the leadoff spot belongs to him, but he’s capable of being bounced around a bit. The Macho Man showed considerable pop and a tremendous eye in the World Baseball Classic. I expect those skills to continue into the MLB season.

Gayle Troiani: Tanner Houck, RHP
If Houck can stay healthy this season, he’s poised to be a mainstay in the rotation and provide manager Alex Cora with the option of allowing the right-hander to work deeper into games.

Ben Watanabe: Bobby Dalbec, 1B
Another season, another year of misplaced belief in Bobby D. Boston desperately needs a right-handed batter to emerge to balance its left-heavy lineup, and Dalbec brings the potential for more pop than Christian Arroyo, Adalberto Mondesi and Kiké Hernandez. So maybe he breaks out, or maybe he’ll be the face on the brochures for the WooSox all season.

Lauren Willand: Alex Verdugo, OF
I think this will be the year we see the best of Verdugo, as I believe there is another level he hasn’t unlocked yet. Red Sox manager Alex Cora called out Verdugo at the end of last season, and that should only provide added motivation for the outfielder to perform the best we’ve seen from him.