Red Sox Weekend Warmup: How Will James Paxton’s Return Impact Rotation?

The Boston Red Sox are nearing a crossroads with their starting rotation.

James Paxton, who’s made just six starts (21 1/3 innings) since the beginning of 2020 due to injuries, will return to the mound Friday night when the Red Sox host the St. Louis Cardinals at Fenway Park. That alone creates a logjam, with Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello already occupying five spots in Boston’s rotation. And the squeeze might only tighten when Garrett Whitlock returns from the injured list.

Red Sox manager Alex Cora revealed Wednesday, before Boston wrapped up a five-game road trip with a 5-2 win over the Atlanta Braves, that a six-man rotation will remain in place through next weekend’s series against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. After that, if everyone remains healthy, difficult decisions will need to be made, especially if Whitlock is ready to come off the IL.

Usually, these types of situations work themselves out. It’s why clubs prioritize starting pitching depth, even when it appears they’re working with a full convoy of starters. But the solution isn’t readily obvious as the Red Sox prepare for a six-game homestand that includes matchups with the Cardinals and the Seattle Mariners. Whatever happens over the next 10 days could shape the conversation.

Let’s assume Sale, Kluber and Paxton maintain spots in the rotation. That would leave four starters — Pivetta, Houck, Bello and Whitlock — vying for the final two spots. Pivetta hasn’t pitched well, Houck and Whitlock have ample bullpen experience, and Bello can be optioned to Triple-A Worcester without issue.

All told, it’s a multilayered dilemma, albeit one the Red Sox will willingly tackle because it sure beats the alternative of having no starters at all.

Red Sox odds (May 12)*
To win World Series: +6000
To win American League: +3000
To win AL East: +2300
To make playoffs: +175

Oddsmakers have been slow to buy into Boston’s early-season success. But that’s beginning to change, with the Red Sox’s odds to win the World Series and to win the American League shortening over the last week. The Red Sox’s World Series odds went from +10000 to +6000 at FanDuel Sportsbook since last Friday, meaning the same $100 bet that would have netted you a $10,000 profit now will yield a $6,000 win if Boston raises the Commissioner’s Trophy. The Red Sox’s odds to win the AL shortened from +4200 and their odds to make the playoffs dropped from +250. Still value? Sure, but you might need to act soon if you truly believe in Boston’s 2023 potential.

*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Probable pitchers
— Friday, May 12 (7:10 p.m. ET vs. Cardinals): James Paxton, LHP (0-0, — ERA) vs. Adam Wainwright, RHP (0-0, 7.20 ERA)

— Saturday, May 13 (4:10 p.m. ET vs. Cardinals): Chris Sale, LHP (3-2, 6.37 ERA) vs. Steven Matz, LHP (0-4, 5.70 ERA)

— Sunday, May 14 (7:10 p.m. ET vs. Cardinals): Corey Kluber, RHP (2-4, 6.29 ERA) vs. Miles Mikolas, RHP (1-1, 5.40 ERA)

Red Sox Pitcher James Paxton Sees Hidden Benefit In Injury History

May 11, 2023

Storylines to watch
1. Will James Paxton provide a boost?
Let’s face it: The Red Sox’s rotation hasn’t been good this season, sporting the third-worst ERA (6.01) in Major League Baseball, ahead of only the lowly Oakland Athletics and Cincinnati Reds. But, as mentioned, bodies aren’t an issue. And while it’s impossible to project what Paxton will bring to the table after missing all of 2023 and making only one MLB appearance in 2022, the veteran left-hander has an extensive enough track record to dream on him becoming a real contributor that improves Boston’s pitching staff. Paxton owns a 57-33 record and a 3.59 ERA in 137 career starts.

2. Is Josh Winckowski becoming a go-to arm in Boston’s bullpen?
Winckowski isn’t just an innings eater. He’s been an extremely valuable asset, providing shutdown frames for Boston, and it’s apparent Cora’s trust in the 24-year-old right-hander is growing with each successful appearance. That trust is reflected in Winckowski’s usage, with him being relied upon more frequently in high-leverage spots, and it’s something to monitor as the Red Sox seek the sturdiest bridge to closer Kenley Jansen.

3. Time for a Triston Casas breakout?
Casas enters the weekend having homered in two of his last three games, the second being a first-pitch blast off Raisel Iglesias, an accomplished big-league closer, that traveled 442 feet. The raw numbers still lag, but Casas continues to control the strike zone and put good wood on the ball. If he can cut down on the whiffs, while being as aggressive as he was in the ninth inning Wednesday night, big things might soon be in store for the 23-year-old slugger.