Red Sox Have Betting Value As Sportsbooks Slow To Buy Boston’s Ceiling
Have expectations changed for the 2023 Red Sox?
Sunday’s loss to the Phillies snapped the Red Sox’s eight-game winning streak, their longest streak in nearly two years. In what is considered to be the toughest division in baseball, they are just two games behind the Orioles, a half-game back from the Blue Jays and 2 1/2 games ahead of the Yankees.
Yet, DraftKings Sportsbook still lists Boston with the longest odds to win the American League East at 20-1, a significant distance from the Orioles at 13-1. Oddsmakers have Boston lined at -215 to miss the playoffs, with a price of +180 to make the postseason.
So, let’s get this straight: Boston has a lineup boasting the second-best batting average (.271), fourth-best OPS (.792) and wOBA (.345), fourth-best wRC+ (114) and the second-lowest strikeout rate (19.8%), but oddsmakers are giving them an implied probability of less than 5% to come out on top.
Don’t get me wrong, negative regression is expected — we have already seen a glimpse of that with this loss to the Phillies — but it still seems like they’re being undervalued in the market.
Keep in mind, this is not a fully healthy roster. Adam Duvall came out scorching hot to start the season before he went down with a fractured left wrist in early April. The latest update is that he could return by the end of May, which gives manager Alex Cora a luxury of riches when it comes to his lineup. Trevor Story is expected to be out a significant portion of the season, but there’s another boost to the offense to look forward to when he makes it back.
Plus, Garret Whitlock and James Paxton are expected to make their returns soon, as well, marking the addition of two critical pieces to the pitching staff. And Chaim Bloom and company have the payroll flexibility to potentially be buyers at the trade deadline.
The Sox made this impressive run with red-hot bats and decent pitching. The latter has been their relative weakness, with the eighth-highest team ERA at 4.84. However, I can’t help but think a healthy and possibly bolstered pitching staff post-trade deadline could make this team a much bigger threat in the AL East than the books are giving them credit for. It will be tough to catch up to the Rays, but the Blue Jays and Orioles will have their ups and downs. As far as the Yankees go, I took the under on their win total this season for a reason, which you can read about here.
With the lack of market respect for Boston at this point, it might be worth a sprinkle on the division price or a wager on the more likely outcomes: to make the playoffs or to get over their win total set at 82. The Red Sox showed us a glimpse of what their ceiling could look like the last few weeks, and, to me, it looks like a team that could make a late-season run.
