Patriots Need This Improvement To Maximize Ezekiel Elliott Impact
How good is a goal-line back if you can't get to the goal line?
It’s not that signing Ezekiel Elliott doesn’t make sense for the Patriots. New England had a clear hole in its backfield, and signing the veteran back to provide needed depth will help to that relatively limited extent.
But expecting Elliott to perform anywhere near his Cowboys level — or even for him to put up anything close to what he did in his final season with Dallas — is foolish.
Elliott likely will help in short-yardage situations, the sorts of plays the Patriots struggled to convert in 2022. New England ranked 30th in the entire NFL last season in first-down percentage on plays with 2 yards or fewer to go for a first down, converting just 56.5% of those attempts. The Patriots ranked 25th in the league in rushing yards per attempt (2.76) in those situations.
In those same spots last season, Elliott received 40 carries (fourth-most among running backs) and picked up first downs on 70% of those touches while averaging 3.4 yards per carry. So, yes, he should help in that regard, and he also has a good reputation in pass protection (despite a regrettable end to his Dallas career).
When you look at Elliott’s stats from the 2022 season, one number that really jumps off the page is his 12 touchdowns. Only five running backs found paydirt more than Elliott, and he had fewer overall rushing attempts than all of them — and he did so without fumbling once all season.
The thing with Elliott’s knack for the end zone is that the bulk of those scores came down around the goal line. That’s been the case for his entire career, really, with Elliott scoring 45 of his 68 career rushing touchdowns from the 5-yard line and in. Twenty-nine of those scores alone were 1-yard plunges into the end zone. Only three of Elliott’s 12 touchdowns last season came from outside the 5-yard line, with nine coming from the 2-yard line and in.
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So it might not surprise you to learn the Cowboys led the NFL in red-zone touchdown percentage last season. Dallas scored six just about three out of every four trips to the red zone, a ridiculously efficient rate in the most important part of the field for the offense. Conversely, the Patriots were horrible, ranking dead last in the NFL in the same metric, finding the end zone on just 42.2% of their trips.
Theoretically, Elliott’s presence should help improve on that number, but let’s not pretend that just because he’s wearing the Flying Elvis instead of a star on his helmet that the Patriots will be one of the NFL’s best red-zone teams in 2023.
That’s because in order for Elliott to be the Patriots’ efficient goal-line back, they have to get to the actual goal line. When it comes to dissecting New England’s red-zone issues in 2022, that was a much bigger problem than punching it in from close. Consider this: The Patriots ranked dead last in the NFL last season in yards per play on red-zone plays between the 20- and 5-yard line. New England averaged just 2.42 yards per play in that crucial 15-yard piece of property.
With Elliott, a lot of his effectiveness and value were tied to those plays down around the goal line. Only two players (Jamaal Williams, Joe Mixon) had more rushes inside the 10-yard line than Elliott (26), and Williams was the only running back with more carries inside the 5-yard line than Elliott (19).
It’s also worth mentioning in all of this that the Patriots logged fewer red-zone snaps than all but two teams in 2022, something that speaks to the general dysfunction of the entire unit. Basically, year-over-year improvement in New England’s offense is far more tied to the performance of people like Mac Jones and Bill O’Brien than it is to Elliott.
Elliott is a veteran who represents depth at a position where attrition is high. That’s a good thing — and it was needed. But anyone thinking Elliott’s presence alone will transform or drastically improve New England’s offense will likely be sorely mistaken.
