Can Patriots Beat Eagles? Cases For, Against Major Week 1 Upset

You won’t find many people who believe the Patriots can beat the Eagles on Sunday. New England might be the worst team in the AFC East, and Philadelphia is coming off a Super Bowl appearance.

But the reality is anything can happen when the two teams take the field at Gillette Stadium. Sure, the Eagles could completely outclass the Patriots on Tom Brady Night, but you don’t have to squint all that hard to see a path toward victory for Bill Belichick and company.

In a special season preview edition of the “NESN Patriots Podcast“, we offered our predictions for the huge Week 1 matchup. We agreed the game should be competitive, but we disagreed on the outcome.

Let’s get into it.

CASES FOR
Timing
The Patriots couldn’t ask for a better time to get the Eagles. Preparing for Jalen Hurts and Philly’s explosive offense would be a tall order in a typical game week, but New England has had all summer to prepare for this game. Moreover, the Patriots brought back nearly all of their defense while adding potentially impactful rookies. The unit should be fully prepared for this matchup. Plus, we can’t forget about the dreaded Super Bowl hangover for teams that lose the Big Game. Don’t be surprised if the Eagles get off to a slow start and allow the Patriots to build an early lead.

Philly’s defense
By the end of last season, it was clear that Philly’s defense was overrated beyond its incredible front seven, and couldn’t play man coverage. This is a zone-coverage team, which should play into the hands of a Patriots offense that emphasizes a cerebral, quick-passing attack and might not yet be able to block for explosive downfield plays. The Eagles’ defense also lost two starting safeties and a starting D-tackle — among others — during the offseason, and now must rely on a group of unproven youngsters, such as Jalen Carter and Nakobe Dean, to pick up the slack. Add in a young, inexperienced coordinator in Sean Desai, and you have the makings for a sloppy showing from a nonetheless talented group.

The Patriots might be good
Are the Patriots Super Bowl contenders? No, probably not. But this team has a chance to be much better than many people expect — even if their record doesn’t reflect it. New England’s roster is younger and more talented than it was in 2021 when then-rookie Mac Jones led the Patriots to the playoffs. If he takes a step forward this season, New England could be a 10- or 11-win team.

CASES AGAINST
New England’s O-line
We have no idea what to expect from this group. Trent Brown and David Andrews should be fine at left tackle and center, respectively, but left Cole Strange missed virtually all of training due to a knee injury and still was limited in Wednesday’s practice. And then there’s right guard Mike Onwenu, who returned to practice just two weeks ago after undergoing offseason ankle surgery. But the biggest concern is right tackle, where the Patriots basically have no reliable options. This is a recipe for disaster against a team that led the league in sacks last season.

Special teams
The Patriots will trot out two rookie specialists: kicker Chad Ryland and punter Bryce Baringer. Both players are talented and have big legs, but they also struggled at times during camp. New England can’t win this game if it isn’t buttoned up on the margins, and it’s not hard to envision a missed kick or shanked punt coming back to bite the Patriots in a close game.

Eagles playmakers
New England has a history of struggling against mobile quarterbacks, and Hurts is one of the top dual-threat signal-callers in the game. He’s big, he’s fast — and he’s really good. Yes, the Patriots’ defense has had ample time to prepare for his playstyle, but can it keep Hurts contained in key situations? Philly’s receivers, led by A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, also present a ton of problems, especially for a Patriots secondary that will feature a rookie in Christian Gonzalez and might be without Jack Jones (hamstring injury). The Patriots might need to keep this offense under 30 points, and we’re not sure they can do it.

Watch the video below for our full thoughts on Patriots-Eagles: