What Bailey Zappe’s Promotion Means For Patriots, Mac Jones

Three weeks ago, after replacing Mac Jones late in the Patriots’ narrow loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Germany, Bailey Zappe said he was “100%” confident he could succeed as New England’s starting quarterback.

It appears he’ll finally get that chance this Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Zappe took nearly all of the reps during the open media portion of Wednesday’s practice, the Patriots’ first of Week 13. The 2022 fourth-round draft pick did the same after reporters departed, according to a report from the Boston Herald’s Doug Kyed.

A subsequent report from MassLive.com’s Mark Daniels indicated Jones was relegated to scout-team work Wednesday, with Zappe taking the lion’s share of first-team reps.

After practice, Zappe told reporters he was scheduled to speak with the media on Thursday. That was further evidence that he had leapfrogged Jones, who’s been benched four times this season, and now sat atop New England’s QB depth chart. (Backup quarterbacks don’t have scheduled news conferences.)

Finally, The Athletic’s Jeff Howe reported Wednesday night that the Patriots were “preparing” Zappe to start.

“It should be his job this week if all goes as expected,” Howe wrote on the X platform.

If Zappe does, in fact, get the nod Sunday, it would mark the first time in Jones’ NFL career that he was healthy but did not start. Zappe’s only two pro starts to date came last October while Jones was sidelined with a high ankle sprain.

The Western Kentucky product impressed in those outings, piloting the Patriots to back-to-back wins over the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns and delivering New England’s two highest scoring outputs of the 2022 season (29 and 38 points, respectively).

Adding in his two relief appearances against the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears, Zappe completed 70.7% of his passes for 781 yards and five touchdowns with two interceptions as a rookie, winning over a large portion of the Patriots’ fanbase in the process. He averaged 8.1 yards per attempt and posted a passer rating of 100.9.

Year 2 has not gone nearly as well for the 24-year-old, however. Zappe had issues adjusting to Bill O’Brien’s new offense, was cut at the end of training camp and looked mediocre at best in his four regular-season opportunities. Among the 49 NFL QBs with at least 35 pass attempts this season, his 48.7% completion rate ranks 47th, and his 4.1 yards-per-attempt average ranks 48th.

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Zappe’s half-long outing in last week’s loss to the Giants was his most effective of 2023, as he led a touchdown drive and completed 64.3% of his passes. But he relied almost exclusively on screens and other short throws and finished with just 54 passing yards on 14 attempts. All nine of his completions were to targets within five yards of the line of scrimmage, five were to receivers behind the line, and his lone attempt to push the ball downfield resulted in an interception that set up what proved to be New York’s game-winning field goal.

But with Jones now downright unplayable due to his unreliability and penchant for turnovers, the Patriots seemingly are hoping that Zappe can perform better as a starter — with a full week of starter reps — than he has as a sub. He’ll get a favorable matchup against a Chargers defense that’s awful against the pass (32nd in yards per game, 30th in yards per attempt, 26th in expected points added per play) but might be without New England’s only reliable passing-game playmaker: rookie receiver Demario Douglas, who is in concussion protocol and didn’t practice Wednesday.

The next question, then, is what this change means for Jones. Will he simply bump down to QB2? Or will he fall further? The latter seemed possible based on the media’s brief glimpse of Wednesday’s practice. In the lone passing drill held in front of reporters, practice squadder Malik Cunningham rotated in for Zappe while Jones stood and watched.

Cunningham has appeared in just one game in his young NFL career, and coaches repeatedly have referred to him as a wide receiver — his primary position since he arrived in Foxboro this past spring. But the undrafted rookie was a dangerous dual-threat QB at Louisville and could add a new element to New England’s offense if given an expanded role.

“That’s a dangerous dude right there,” wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster said of Cunningham. “Him being in there, he can do a lot of different things with the ball in his hands.”

Head coach Bill Belichick declined to name a starting QB during his Wednesday morning news conference. He’ll have another chance to do so when he meets with the media on Friday.