Lucas Giolito Injury: Red Sox Have Replacement Options Still On Market

The Red Sox got some really bad news as the worst possible position Tuesday.

Boston manager Alex Cora revealed starting pitcher Lucas Giolito has elbow discomfort and is being shelved indefinitely. As Cora noted, "obviously it's not a good day for us," indicating the right-hander could miss a significant amount of what would be his first season in Boston.

The pitching staff was relatively thin with Giolito penciled into the rotation. Not only that, the value of Giolito is largely tied to his ability to take the ball. He has logged no fewer than 161 innings in each of his (non-pandemic) full big league seasons, throwing a career-high 184 1/3 innings last season. The Sox surely expected something close to that in 2024, meaning they now have to find a way to make up for those outs.

The rotation now probably looks something like this:

Brayan Bello
Nick Pivetta
Garrett Whitlock
Kutter Crawford
Tanner Houck/Josh Winckowski

Bello, Pivetta and especially now Whitlock feel like locks. Crawford has looked good so far, too. Houck and Winckowski were battling it out for a rotation spot, too, with Houck being an option out of the bullpen given his past. One of those two probably will break camp in the rotation, assuming there aren't any other injuries.

After that, though, there's no clear option among non-roster invitees or Triple-A rotation fillers. It's still too early for top pitching prospect Wikelman Gonzalez. Bryan Mata doesn't look like an option, either, especially with a recent hamstring injury.

It's becoming increasingly likely the team might need to go outside the organization for starting depth, especially if Giolito's injury is the worst-case scenario. Here are some potential free agent options for Craig Breslow and the Red Sox front office.

LHP Jordan Montgomery
The No. 1 option is obvious. The Red Sox and Montgomery, according to multiple reports, keep dancing. USA Today on Monday cited executives who believed Montgomery ultimately would wind up with the Red Sox. The need for a veteran arm like Montgomery only intensifies with the Giolito injury, but that also gives Montgomery -- and agent Scott Boras -- some leverage. Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy admitted Breslow has been given certain payroll parameters, though it's unclear whether a potential Montgomery signing was part of that budgeting. Whether it can be expanded now that the need has increased will be a major piece of this puzzle. Regardless, Montgomery is a workhorse himself, who has made at least 30 starts in each of the last three seasons.

RHP Mike Clevinger
New Red Sox catcher Roberto Perez mentioned earlier this week that this Boston rotation does remind him some of the Cleveland pitching staffs he used to catch. Clevinger was one of the pitchers he mentioned. The 33-year-old had a quietly solid 2023 season for the White Sox, posting a 3.77 ERA in 24 strats while striking out 7.5 batters per nine innings. At various points in his career, he has looked like a top-of-the-rotation arm, like in 2019 when he went 13-4 with a 2.71 ERA while striking out 12 per nine with Cleveland. The Perez connection is noteworthy, too. No catcher has caught Clevinger more often in his career, and the numbers are quite good.

RHP Michael Lorenzen
Lorenzen has been kind of all over the place in his career. He was an All-Star last season for his work in Detroit where he posted a 124 ERA+ in 18 starts, really taking advantage of pitching at Comerica Park where his home run rate was less than one per nine innings. The Tigers traded him to Philadelphia at the deadline where he struggled, giving up 29 earned runs in just 47 1/3 innings, while flashing dominance … like when he threw a no-hitter on Aug. 9. The 153 innings over the two stops was a career-high after starting his career in the bullpen. He made $8.5 million, so perhaps he could be signed at a similar rate for 2024 with a chance to improve his value before going back to market next season.

RHP Jake Odorizzi
The veteran right-hander is still unsigned after missing all of 2023 with a shoulder injury. According to reports, he's healthy. MLB Network's Jon Morosi reported last month the 34-year-old pitched for teams as he searches for a new gig. A big league deal might have to be pretty incentive-heavy; even with a clean bill of health, it's hard to know for sure what Odorizzi can do in 2024. If he's potentially the cheapest option, there's a reason for that, as he also carries the most risk. If a team like the Red Sox felt confident about the six pitchers vying for those spots right now, adding Odorizzi largely as a depth piece on which they don't totally need to depend might make some sense. He has only just over 200 total innings since the start of 2021, though.